The Dominion FRIDAY, JULY 27, 1917. THE WAR OUTLOOK!

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3147, 27 July 1917, Page 4

The Dominion FRIDAY, JULY 27, 1917. THE WAR OUTLOOK!

According to some reports by way of neutral countries which appear to-day the path of the German \V'ar Lords has not been smoothed to the extent that might have been expecteel by late events in .Russia. An Amsterdam message reports that much hostile comment has been provoked in Germany by an article in theAreuz- Jeituvr/, stating that the -iUiSEit and the entire Armv arc in agreemont with the political factions which favour an uncompromising prosecution of the war, and the Berlin correspondent of a Danish newspaper states that no great German offensive is to be expected in the near future. He adds that the members of the Reichstag majority prefer peace now, as they are convinced that Germany will not get better terms six months hence. In st>'f a n i «i it-implies an admission tnut_ Lvormany is without hope- of forcing a favourable decision in the war, this conviction is manifestly sound. The opinions attributed to the members of the Reichstag majority are unsound only in crediting Germany with a better position thaa she actually holds. That Germany has no visible prospect of obtaining a victory which would enable her to dictate terms is perfectly true, but the assertion that she. be defeated is absurdly optimistic considering that whilo she is within measuroable distance of exhaustion the Allies arc assured of enormous reinforcements from America. To realise how completely the balance in the war still turns against Germany it is only necessary to consider the nature of the opportunity which has now opened before her in the Eastern theatre and i how far she is likely as a result to improve her general position. At the moment it. is far from certain that the relief gained by Germany in the Eastern theatre will be as great as seemed probable a few days ago. Current reports from Russia, while they show that the retreat on the south-western front is still in progress, indicate also that the nation has been stirred to its depths by the base treachery of a section of the troops, and that drastic measures arc being taken to restore discipline and close the breach that has been opened in the fighting front. If the prospects thus raised are realised, it may not be long before Russia again becomes a formal military factor. Even if her recovery is slow, it does not by any means follow that Germany will be- able to reverse the ruling trend of the war, far less that she will be enabled to avert the fate which the Russian collapse has for the time postponed. _ No doubt Germany is in a position, though not without taking serious risks ou the Western theatre, to develop a great offensive against Russia. Such an enterprise, however, offers no prospects of advantage that would compensate the exhausting effort, in■volved. Success against Russia, however far it might extend, would bo absolutely indecisive so far/as the main issues of the war arc concerned. ' Germany could avert the fate to which she is now plainly doomed in no other way that by gaining a decisive victory in the Western theatre, and it is obvious that any bid she makes for such a viptory must bo made speedily. If she' cannot defeat the Western Allies and bring them to terms in tho conditions that now exist, she will certainly fail to achieve that result when another year of war has opened and a powerful American armv is fighting shoulder to shoulder with the British and French.

It is only by taking clue account of the circumstances of ths Western campaign and of Germany's total failure to alter them to her advantage- that wo shall accurately gauge her prospects in the war. To-day her armies in the Western theatre are visibly in process of defeat. The fact that almost stationary battles have been in progress in this decisive theatre during the summer months is to an extent illusory. Scaring in mind that nothing , but victory this year in the Western theatre will save Germany from the overwhelming defeat which the addition of the American Army to flic Allied forces will inevitably involve, we may well believe that the retreat of the' German armies in the spring was intended to be tho prelude to a great attack. That this was the policy of the German high command is attested on credible authority. The fact was, indeed, trumpeted forth by tho inspired German Press until the remorseless pressure of the Allied offensive brought disillusionment. Promises of a victorious stroke on the Western front then gave place to assurances that the submarines win the war if only tho armies meantime held their own. Since early summer tho Germans have maintained on the Western front tho heaviest concentration they are capable iiE effecting short of a separiiti' peace with' Russia. They have nevertheless been throughout in a condition of definite inferiority, and are manifestly, iu that condi-

tiou to-day. Tha long-continued and immensely powcrlul attacks made on the French positions north of. the Aisne may seem to dictate some qualification of this statement, but apart from the fact that these attacks have, totally failed to achieve their object there are larger considerations to be taken into account. It is a commanding feature as matters stand in the- Western campaign that the Allied armies aro in offensive array. This appears conspicuously in the fact that the British Army is massed on a comparatively short front, .assuredly for no other reason than that its offensive power may be exerted with maximum effect when the time for decisive action arrives. This single fact, apart from all that the Allies have accomplished in driving the enemy out of strong positions, throwing him back on a weakened line and subjecting him to appalling losses of men and material, attests the- absolute- inferiority of the German Western armies. ]t at the same time indicates the enormous reserve of power the Allies have to draw upon if they should be compelled to cope with a forlorn hope effort by the enemy to force a decision in the Western theatre before America can bring- her weight to bear. Up to the present tho French have, demonstrated their ability to defeat the enemy's most desperate assaults, but thcro is not the slightest doubt that if the- need should arise- the British could greatly extend their present lino and correspondingly strengthen the- French defence. With matters in this statein the decisive land theatre, whatever hopes the Germans based en the submarine campaign arc rapidly disappearing. It has been stated confidently and on the highest possible authority that the submarine campaign will fail. Nothing that the .'Germans may accomplish by offensive action in Russia, against Italy, or in any of the minor theatres where the Allied position may be prejudiced as a result of developments in Russia, will alter , ■those commanding facts of tho war. In spite of whatever relief, she has gained in the Eastern theatre, Germany is definitely doomed unless by aggressive action on land or sea or both combined she can win decisive victory in the Western theatre- before the year is out. Wβ are entitled in the facts to believe that such a victory is far beyond her reach and that her utmost achievement will be to stave off defeat until American aid enables the- Allies to launch an irresistible offensive.