PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3144, 24 July 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Some of to-day's messages point to an improving; political situation in Eussia, and it is stated also that Hindunburg's offensive has had, or is expected to have, an incalculable effect on the moral of the Eussian troops. On the biittlcfront in Galicia, however, matters appear for the time to be going rapidly from bad to worse. A Eussian communique. states that the enemy has occupied a suburb of Tarnapol, on the Sereth, and at tho same time gives such accounts of tho instability of the troops and their disregard of orders that a further retirement must be expected. At Tarnapol the Russians are about 25 miles cast of tho front to which they recently advancod on tho approach to Lcmborg from the east. TiiQ Russians ha,va hold

Tarnopol since fcho early days of the war, and tho town approximately marked the front on winch Geneiial Brusiloff opened his great offensive last year.

A moderately hopeful estimate of the outlook is possible only on tho assumption that tho communiques reporting military disasters in Galieia have been hold back by tho censorship, whereas the messages which toll of .improving order in the country and in the Army are up to date. A number of items in the nows lend colour to this theory. It is stated that M. Kekenski has gone to tho front "to prevent a repetition of last week's disaster," and again that all the regiments which refused to fight aro being disarmed and disbanded. These statements would bo meaningless if tho Eussian armies in Galicia were still falling Lack in a state of hopeless disorganisation. The manifesto addressed by the Provisional Government to the soldiers also suggests that the worst of tho crisis is past and that the battlefront has been restored. It is an open question meantime, however, whether the Russian retirement terminated at Tarnapol, or was continued further east.

At the moment reports are too confused to permit any very definite opinion as to the probable outcome of the oxisting situation. It is still possible to hold, however, that the mutiny and treachery which led to military disaster in Galicia, like the accompanying disorders in the interior country, were of limited scope. Tho anarchists, who arc now said to havo been suppressed, aro in a vory small minority of the oivil population, and it is probable that mutincors and traitors constitute an equally insignificant proportion of the armies in the field. Eccent reports indicate that the Council of Soldiers' and Workmen's Delegates is not so dominating a factor in Eussia as is generally assumed. It represents, according to a statement published in America on Juno 16, not more 1 than fivo million people of ltussia's 180,000,000. The Council is confined very largely to the industrial centres, whose voice is always tho first heard and the loudest. Tho peasants, according to fcheso reports, comprise- tho vast majority of the population and havo voted overwhelmingly in favour of a vigorous prosecution of the war. They havo not yet shown the slightest sympathy with the Radicals. Moreover, the business men of Russia, it is pointed out, have recently voted practically unanimously for a vigorous prosecution of tho .war. This summary of tho situation embodies a considerable element of speculation, but probably makes some approach to accuracy. There is no doubt that the sections which have carried poace-at-any-price agitation to ,tho point of attempted counter-revolution and mutiny and treachery on tho battlefront —sections which include both fanatical extremists and German propagandists—aro of inconsiderable numerical strength. The Councils of Workmon and Soldiers now largely support tho policy of a vigorous offensive, and aro certainly not identified as a wholo with' the advocates of anarchy and treachery. These facts suggest that a Government headed by a strong man like .Keiuinski may yet succeed in restoring some semblance of order and discipline. It is noteworthy in this connection that a delegation from the fighting front'has proposed that Kerenski should bo granted dictatorial powers. It has yet to be seen,, however, whether tho peasants who constitute so largo a proportion of the Eussian population will accept and yield obechenco to a Socialist Government.

So far as tlio political outlook is concerned, the most unpromising feature of the situation is that the Socialists who have now seized the reins of power aro apparently determined to shape the Government according to their own ideas, without waiting for tho representative decision of the Constituent Assembly which is to meet in October. In this matter Kerenski has perhaps Been stampeded by his followers. At all events Prince Lvoff's contention that it is tho function of the Constituent Assembly to determine the form of Government is obviously just, and the present activity of the Socialists will probably lead to further serious dissensions in the near future. On the other hand, Kerenski has been untiring , in his advocacy of a vigorous offensive'against the Germans, and is not likely to shrink from any measures calculated to mako Eussia again an effective partner of the Allies. In his efforts to that end he should derive material assistance from the fact that the Germans have_ assumed tho offensive. Indeed, even in the existing sj;ate of affairs there is some force in the view that tho Germans would hardly have taken the offensive if they had not despaired of securing either' a, separate peace with Eussia or oonditions of stalemate on the Eastern front.