PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3136, 14 July 1917, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The occupation of the railway town of Kalusz, nearly twenty miles west of Stanislau, marks a big forward stride in tho Russian offensive. In their formidable thrust south of tho Dniester tho Russians arc driving across tho enemy commnnications_ between that river and the Carpathians, and the movement has its place also in tho enveloping attack which has Lemberg for its ultimate objective. Tho very fact that the offensive is developing with so mndi promise and on an increasing scale suggests that even greater developments may he in near prospect. It was the will rather than tho power of tho Revolutionary armies to develop a great offensive that was lately in question, anddoubts and fears on this score seem to have been unwarranted. It will not be surprising if the offensive is presently extended in full power to Southern Russia, where the enemy oven now has a narrower -margin of safety than in Galicia. It is somewhat premature to assert, as one message docs to-day, that tho Russian main attack is now plainly disclosed. It is not impossible that the offensive in Galicia as a whole is intended to bo subsidiary to operations further north.

At time of writing the statement of tho Vossische Zciiuiui that the German Imperial Chancellor has resigned' awaits confirmation. If Bethmann-HoUjWEG has actually departed'from office the significance of the event will only begin to appear clearly when bis successor has been appointed. Tho removal of the Chancellor would not necessarily mean that democratic forces in Germany had gathered powerful head. It raisht mean 'only that the Kaiser was discarding one instrument for another in the hope of forwarding a peace intrigue or of rallying the nation for a, last desperate effort to avert disaster. It is suggested to-day, and not for the first time, that the .Kaiser is perhaps manipulating political factors as part of a peace scheme. So far as the immediate situation is concerned,, it is much more likely that something of this kind is in train than the Chancellor has resigned (if he has resigned) under popular pressure. * * * *

The latest statistics of the submarine campaign, point- to an improving situation. The rate of losses by mino and submarine has been falling during tho last three weeks, and for the last two weeks has been below the average for the whole period of tho German unrestricted campaign. This is not the only hopeful feature. Tho rate of destruction reached its maximum in: the week ending -April 22, when 40 ships over ]600 tons were- sunk. Another week of very heavy losses followed, but in the second week of Mav the rate of destruction had fallen - almost to normal, that is to say to a point . exceeding by very little the average for the whole campaign. Evidence of another abnormal effort by the submarines was afforded in the middle of June, but on this occasion the largest number of ships of over 1600 tons destroyed in one week was 27 (in the week ending June 17), and from that point the rate of loss has fallen away more rapidly and decidedly than it did from the higher losses of April. It is reasonable to suppose that both in April and in June the Germans accomplished an increased destruction of shipping by sending out increased numbers of submarines from an accumulated reserve. If this is tho fact they must either have had a smaller reserve to draw upon on the later occasion or the submarines must have been more effectively dealt with than they were in April. The position is complicated by tho fact that minelaying by 'submarines takes an important place in the enemy's measures for the destruction of merchant shipping, but evidence at the moment certainly points to declining efficiency on the part of the submarines, or increased efficiency in the anti-submarine organsation, possibly to both. - # -if * * I

It is a fact of decidedly good promise that tho figures of arrivals at and departures from British ports have upon the whole been steadily rising sinco tho first weekly return was issued for the week ending February 25. There is no reason to suppose that the average tonnage of individual ships entering or leaving. British ports has declined in the period since February 18. The genera! tendency is the other way, and the increased numbers of ships trading to British ports probably means a, proportionate, or more than proportinate, increase in tonnage. The increase in the number of ships trading to Britain now as compared with tho earliest period to_. which the weekly returns refer is very striking. In the four woeks ending on March 18, the weekly average of arrivals at British ports was 2330. In the four weeks ending on July 8 the weekly average of arrivals was 2854. The latest weekly return showed 289S arrivals and 1798 departures. The last total has obvirf*ly been changed in transmission from 2798. Making this correction, tho average number of ships leaving British ports in each of the last four weeks was 2890. as compared with average weekly departures numbering 2,'!12 in tho four weeks ending on March 18. An increase of approximately twenty per cent, in tho number of ships entering and leaving British ports now as compared with the early weeks of tho uilrestricted campaign certainly suggests that tho Germans have made very little headway in their project of starving Britain. #

1t is estimated b.y the naval correspondent of the London Times that the Germans havcsimk two million tons of British shipping in tho last six months of their unrestricted campaign, iasted of the- six million tons

they had hoped to send to the bottom in that time, if the estimate is sound it certainly strengthens the view that the Germans have poor prospects of carrying out the task they undertook at the beginning of February. The nature of tho task is indicated in some figures recently made public by Lord Ouiizon , . He gave the following particulars of British ships of over 1600 tons at tho periods indicated: —

.lime, I!)H.—Ships, just short of 31100; toniMße, Hi.'JOO.OOO.

March 31. IiIJV.-Sliips. about 3.100 tonnage, a lillle short of 111,000,000. •

The figures for March 31, 1917, show the position of British tonnage in oversea .ships after two full months "of the German unrestricted campaign. If the Times correspondent is approximately right in /his estimate the tonnage of British ships of over 1600 tons has since been cut down by the submarines by nearly 1,500,000 tons, but this does not mean that the total tonnage of ships in this class now stands at 14,500,000 tons. Tho losses have in part been compensated by new' construction. Ships are now being constructed^ at a rapidly increasing rate in British shipyards and in American shipyards to the order of British shipowners. In the House of Lords some time ago Lord Lytton stated that the first of the . standardised ships under construction in Britain would bo ready' for service in- July, and others would follow in rapid succession. It u to the point also that the amount of tonnage available to Britain has been largely increased by the seizure of. German ships in America, and by other increases in the American mercantile marine, and by the transfer of steamers from tho Great Lakes to ocean service. The broad position is that the, destruction effected by the submarines ■ is .- far ■ from hiving reached decisive, proportions-, and has in any case largely been- compensated by replacements of one kind and another. With matters in this state the rate of destruction by mine and submarine is, for the time .at least, declining.