The Dominion. FRIDAY, JULY 6, 1917. CHECKMATING THE SUBMARINE

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3129, 6 July 1917, Page 4

The Dominion. FRIDAY, JULY 6, 1917. CHECKMATING THE SUBMARINE

Striking proof of the limitations of tho submarine is. given in the complete failure of. the attacks' on the transports which carried tho first section of the American Expeditionary Force to France. The circumstances arc remarkable, It is believed that tho Germans were fully informed beforehand of the time of departure and rout© of the American transport convoy. At all events they contrived to intercept the convoy en route and attack it, first in a part of the Atlantic which was presumed to be free from submarines, and afterwards further east. Tho statement that the' area or J;he first attack was presumed to be free from submarines has perhaps crept in without authority. Practical demonstration has been given of tho fact that no part of• the Atlantic between the United States and Europe is beyond the cruising range of" modern submarines. 'The essential point, however, is' that in attacks made at places and in conditions of their own choosing the submarines failed to do any harm to the American transports or their naval escort, while on the other hand one submarine, at least, was sunk, and there is a, possibility that others met tho Eatjic fate.. The.importance of these cVents is measured by the fact that the Germans evidently had an opportunity of using their U-boats in exceptionally favourable circumstances 'in a field where they, were and arc supremely anxious to obtain results. There would have been ecstatic rejoicing throughout the Fatherland iif one, or more American transports had been sunk, and tha news that the first division of United States troops has landed in France (if its publication is permitted) will occasion corresponding gloom. It may be taken for granted that the German.naval authorities left nothing undone that was calculated to ensure a successful attack on the American convoy, and in'the circumstances the total failure of tho submarines emphasises the fa-ct that they are illqualified to cope with organised naval force, and affords an encouraging indication of the ability of the Allies to defend their vital Atlantic communications.

In a statement cabled to-day von Hindendurg openly admits that Germany's last hope of bringing her enemies to terms is to hold her own against all attacks "until the submarines I have completed their destructive jnission." The abortive attacks on' the American _ convoy constitute an important addition to the existing body of evidence that hopes of this nature entertained by the enemy are vain. A belief that the submarine campaign will stop far short of decisive results does not rest only upon such general assur-' ances on tho subject, as were given recently by Mr! Lloyd George. Information in regard to the campaign is at a number of points incomplete, but quite enough facts are in sight to make a very definite opinion possible. It is, of course, true that tho. submarine is still a most formidable factor in the war. The best available information is that British ships alone have been sunk during the last four months at a rate of from 400,000 to 500,000 tons a month, and the volume of destruction, though it is perhaps now declining, has not yet declined to any material*extent. It is possible also that by standardised construction the Germans are maintaining or even somewhat increasing tho strength of their "flotillas. There are other facts, however, which for all practical purposes' ensure tho ultimate failure of the submarines in the object they have in view. These facts are, briefly, that the present rate of destruction, or even a considerable increase in the present rate, would leave the submarines far short ai decisive success this year, while next year fif the war lasts so long) their task will bo made much greater'and more difficult than it is at present, and the forces organised for their destruction will be heavily reinforced. In considering the outlook it has to bo remembered that the submarines are at their maximum efficiency during tho summer months. Thore_ is bound to be a considerable decline in their activities during tho winter, and if they rcsumo the contest next year it will be under more arduous conditions than now exist. The submarine campaign is first and foremost an attempt to starve Great Britain within a limited period of time, and according to tho British Prime Minister the failure of this attempt is already assured. Speaking at the end ot April Mr. Lr.ovn George outlined the measures token, bv the introduction of tractors and'in other ways, to enormously increase the area under cultivation in Great Britain and Ireland. Touching the possibility that the war might continue through 1918, ho remarked:

If Uio Gorman knows that by holding out to the olid of 1918 ho can win by 6torving us, ho will hold out. But if

lie also knows that the longer lie holds out the worse it will 1)0 .j'or him, peace will come much earlier. Therefore, \jo are taking stops now far the 0 [ 1018, and not a minute too S'lin Wo have already got our fes/n' those plans are carne|d out V" t . ro will he three million fresh aero- of' land under cultivation, mii|. we can guarantee that, without a. ton of foodstuff from abroad no oni> can starve us.

Only a day or \,m> ago Mr. Lloyd George stated that alter carefully reckoning the possibilities, the Government, had come to the conclusion, after the best advice, that the submarines could neither starve Britain nor drive the armies out of the field abroad. This must be taken to mean _ that the measures ior which he stipulated in April are being carried out.

Not the least important factor making for the defeat of the enemy submarine campaign is the expedited construction of new tonnage, particularly in Britain and America. British construction of merchant steamers has fallen away seriously since pre-war days, as the following figures of construction year by year indicate:

Tons. 1013- 1,977,(H10 1011 1,722,000 1015 ClO.Utt) WIG 582,000 Since last year, however, strenuous efforts have been made to increasethe output of the British shipyards, and Mr. Lloyd George stated at the end of April that under the arrangements made by the Government the output of new ships this year would be three times v that of last year, and he was not sure that it would not be four times that of last year. The expansion of the United States shipbuilding industry sinco 1915 can only be called enormous. Until that year America's contribution to the world's mercantile marine was negligible, but at tho .lowest estimate 1,000,000 tons of ocean cargo tonnage will be completed in America this year. The amount may be much greater, for General Goethals (who has been appointed to organise the national shipbuilding resources) hopes that 3,000,000 tons of steel shipping will be built in American yards in eighteen months. Those figures are irrespective of American lake tonnage, a great volume of which has been made available for ocean service during the summer. The German steamers seized in American and Brazilian ports represent a further recent and heavy addition to Allied shipping. Regarding the measures that arc being taken to increase the naval forces engaged in hunting clown the submarines little detail information is available, but in this department also the Allied resources are rapidly expanding. Britain has corrected the mistake into which she fell during the first two years of war of concentrating unduly on the construction of capital snips to the neglect of the destroyers and other mobile craft which are most useful in hunting submarines. 'With America actively co-operating there is no doubt that the anti-submarine campaign will become increasingly effectivo as time iroes on. Taking account also of the food-saving restrictions, the progress of agriculture in Great Britain and the rapidly-increasing production of mercantile tonnage there seems little prospect indeed of Germany now attaining her ends through her submarine frightfulness.