TUESDAY, JUNE 13, 1917. THE WAR OUTLOOK

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3114, 19 June 1917, Page 4

TUESDAY, JUNE 13, 1917. THE WAR OUTLOOK

Thk statement by tho Vivnnh War Srf r i M /AiW S ) l whthw^ to vhioTft rda & eWk the extent advkS ?® A 1 havo deemcd ifc advisably to modify their plans for 1917 iis a result of the unforeseen ra'.iUro of Russia to take her allotted iKirt in tho concerted attack upon the- Central Empires. What M Painleve had to say of Franco in particular must be taken as applying of essentials to tho Allies in general. His statement as cabled is die most definite announcement yet made that the Allies will not attempt to force a military decision this year. There is little doubt that they had laid their plans to force a decision this summer. It will be remembered that in an interview which ga,vo rise to a great deal of talk Sir Douglas Haiq foretold that th& military dofeat of tho energy would be made unmistakably manifest this year, and added that -it would possibly bo the year of peace. That similar views wero entertained some months ago by tho Government to which M. Painleve belongs was indicated in its policy declaration read to tho Senate and Chamber of Deputies on March 21. that declaration the Government said in reference to tho military outlook:'

After thjrty-two months we have entered upon a decisive period of this terrible war. '. . . We are at this moment witnessing the first retreat of tho enemy armies under the pressure of our admirable troops and those of our Allies. . . . Although this retreat is without doubt but a preface to fresh and fierce battles, in which! the eiiemy will expend his last efforts, France feole her confidence renewed in the face of these Results of our unshakable firmness and of the skilful strategic preparations of the leaders of our armies.

.Russia's failure plainly has now compelled the. Allies to modify their plans an immediato supreme effort, and though this does not 'iiean that the pressure on the Western front will be relaxed it is well to recognise that military events in this theatre are not likely to proceed as rapidly as earlier in the year. At the same time it would be easy to exaggerate the benefits which Germany has derived from the Russian revolution, and its untoward aftermath of disorganisation in the Rnssion nation and army. Germany has gained somo relief from the immediate pressure of attack which lately seemed to be in store, but it seems to bo well within the facts to say that her ultimate prospects wero never darker than they are at tho present hour. If tho Western Allies refrain from attempting to force a decision this year, theu obviously Germany is granted a certain breathing space. But tho best prospect ahead of her is that of

facing next year an even more powerful combination of enemies than might reasonably have been expected to bring_ her to defeat this year. The Allies have to bear the disappointment of delaying their plans, but' Germany, if she has somo present and temporary reason for satisfaction, is as definitely without prospects now as she has been at any stage of tho war. Whatever their immediate difficulties may bo the Allies aro in a position to look to tho future with firm and undiminished confidence. It is very probable that early next year,, if not sooner, Russia will bo restored to tho Allied ranks in full fighting vigour. But oyen if Russia should again fail America- will bring tho additional body of strength which will enable tho Allies to launch and drive home tho decisivo attack they arc now compelled to defer. Doubt is no longer possible as to the part that America is destined to play in tho war. It is abundantly clear that Pkesident Wilson speaks for a united nation /in his declaration that America will shrink from no sacrifico that may be needed to secure tho downfall of German militarism.

Apart from these broad features there is much in tho immediate outlook to warrant a belief that the year will not end without Germany being- brought visibly very much nearer to defeat than sho is at present, even if she does not sue outright for poace. Thoro is a limit to what may bo expected of France, but in the Western theatre Germany has to eppe not only with Franco but with a British army which, by common oonsent, is the most formidablo fighting forco afoot in any theatre of war. It has. been said that tho Messincs victory,' from the point of view of organisation and results, was an achievement without parallel. It may bo taken for granted that tho British army will not rest upon its laurels during the remaining period of the summer campaign, and that the French will not be- found wanting in effective cooperation even if they are compelled to leave tho principal burden to their immediate Allies. The immediate outlook in other theatres is also promising. Late events in Greece, in particular, are of good augury. It must be assumed that Germany has been a passive spectator of the deposition of Constantine and of the measures that arc being taken to eliminate tho last traces of her influence in Greece only because she was incapable of effective intervention. She has suffered an immediate and heavy loss of prestige; the Allies have gained at least a secure base of future operations and possibly a base which they contemplate turning to account with little loss of time. A successful offensive in the Balkans, apart from its immediato importance, would indirectly influence events in tho Turkish theatres, and would emphasise the fact that the respite which Germany has gained as a result of tho course of events in Russia is both partial and temporary. Wo havo confined ourselves in this survey of the situation -mainly to the military features. It must be recognised,' however, that even though the Allies, for reasons stated, may find it necessary to modify their military plans for the immediate future, tho continuing pressure that is being maintained on tho Central Powers, tho heavy losses they are suffering and will suffer, the accumulating strain imposed by tlie blockade, must press with increasing forco on the moral of the people 'Added to this is tho hope-

j lessness of 1,1)6 outlook for tho German people, accentuated by tho knowledge that next year American armies will be pouring into Europe and all the might and resources of the. great Republic he thrown into tho .scale against them. When all the circumstances arc taken into consideration oven Russia's failure does uofc eliminate the possibility of tho war ending this year in the collapse o£ our enemies.