PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3067, 1 May 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Not many weeks ago the opinion waa widely entertained that tho Germans would • this year make a big effort to force a decision in the

war oh land. lUithor later, discussion turned upon their prospects of upsetting tho offensive plans of the Western Allies by a policy of retreat. Matters have so fat advanced that it is now a question whether thoy will contrivo to prevent such a break in their lino in Northern Franco as would imperil thoir general retreat and possibly bring them to disaster. This, according to Me. Philip Gibbs, is the issue at stake in the tremendous conflict on the Arras front which entered a

new phase when the British resumed the offensive on Saturday' after the complete failure of the enemy's attempts to restore his line. . The British advance has carried the struggle into new ground on a fairly wide front north and south of the Scarpe, but in this respect no great change is disclosed at the moment of writing from the position reported yesterday. Oppy, the village which gives its name to the covering line opposite Douai and south of. Lens from which the Germans are gradually being dislodged, is still in enemy hands, but' Sir Douglas Haig records the capture of a mile of trenches south of Oppy and the defeat of enemy counterattacks. The capture of close on a thousand prisoners between Saturday morning and Sunday morning is another detail of the news.

It is abundantly, evident, however, that details o'f ground and prisoners give no indication of the magnitude and intensity of the mighty battle on the northern front. The commanding feature is, as it has been for days, the wild efforts of tho Germans to stem the British advance, not by the obstinate defence of fortified positions, but by using up masses of men as if they wero so muoh fuel to be cast into a fire. Somo reports havo stated that tho enemy is. fighting for time to complete ,the Hindenburq line, which extends along the Douai Plain, a couple of miles east of tho localities in which the battle is now raging. Mr. Gibbs says to-day that tho enemy is concentrating men and guns in order to hold the British back at whatever oost from the Hindenburg lino, but ho adds that tho Hindenburo lin& is already insecure, and that shells from the British heavy guns are falling in storms over Queant, which, is ono of its bastions. It is manifestly unlikely that the enemy will find himself to any material extent better off When he is thrown back upon his prepared line. The Allies have hurlod him out of far stronger and better-placed positions than he can hope to preas matters are now shaping. Whether or not the enemy escapes disaster in Northern France, it is clear that the Allies at this early stage of thoir offensivo havo won a position of advantage which five or six weeks ago seemed hardly possible of attainment. The possibility was then open that the enemy might contrive to foil the Allied offensivo or to create conditions in which it could not be pressed save at inordinate cost. Convincing evidence is now afforded that he has evolved no such plan of operations, and is instead in desperate straits. \ In Northern France ho is suffering a continuing defeat which is measured, not by the rate of the British ad- J vance, but by the exhaustion of tho reserves upon whiflh he depends! for his continued 'resistance in Northern France or anywhere else. Ho was reduced to much the same tactics as he as now pursuing in meeting the recent French attacks north of tho Aisne and in the Champagno. The weather, correspondents state, is fine, and our aircraft have never hit the Germans so hard. All these things promise well for the Allies and Dadly for tho Germans. * * * * .

"-/There is no doubt that the cnepiy ,is using up his reserves in a fashion he would do much to avoid, but the extent of his remaining resources in men is a matter,, unfortunately, upon which no certain information is available, though any number of speculative estimates are' current. Even those authorities who take a conservative view, however, and are inclined rather to overestimate than underestimate the enemy's strength, seem to be pretty generally agreed that the. enemy will before long be hard put to it to. obtain reserves. Discussing this question last month the military correspondent of the Morning ,Post remarked that before the campaigning season of lastyear was far advanced it became evident that the enemy's military power was on the decline. "After their failure at Verdun," ho added, "the Germans were hard set to bolster up their Austrian allies in Volhynia' and Galioia, while putting up a defence on the Somme. By the end of the summer they had to resort to the expedient of forming new divisions by withdrawing infantry units from the old, using such 1 fresh levies as were forthcoming to man the additional artillery and to replace wastage. By these means they contrived to provide a nucleus of twclvo or thirteen divisions for the composite army which invaded Rumania; but even with the help of considerable Bulgarian and Turkish forces they failed to conclude the projected operations in the time available, and tho rest of their Balkan programme had to be abandoned, much to the discomfiture of their friends in Greece. It is fairly safe to conclude that before the end of the year tho Germans were faced with a (Serious shortage of men."

Tub Germans had already, howover, as the correspondent goes on. to point out, set about the reorganisation of their man-power, and tho strength of their reserves available Tor the current year's campaign will depend upon the success which has attended their efforts. "The first stop was to close down those industries which wore not osscntial to the

supply of the armies and the civil population, and to replace to the utmost extent tho men of military age who were engaged in the remainder. Tho employment of prisoners of war and inhabitants of occupied territories, and voluntary enrolment under tho Auxiliary Service Law were the chief expedients adopted. The success of these measures is doubtful. It was reported recently that tho Belgians above the military ago had been sont homo, and the rosponso to the call for volunteers is said to havo been 'nadequatc. Tho Polish scheme, which provided for a 'national' army, raised by' voluntary enlistment, which was to be at the disposal of Germany, is said to have been a failure. In addition to such numbers as may havo been made available by these measures, there are the youths of eighteen—said to have been embodied at the end of November—and those of seventeen, who were ordered up for medical examination on February 1. These two classes might produce a million men, and the re-examination of men previously rejected for physical reasons might be made to yield a fresh crop of doubtful number and value."

It will bo seen that in his computation the correspondent errs distinctly on the side of liberality to the Germans. The only concrete number he cites, that of a million recruits allegedly obtainable from the two young classes mentioned, is prohably a very great exaggeration, and the other sources of recruiting mentioned are all of doubtful value. The one thing certain is that, with bigger armies, or at all events a larger number of divisions, to maintain than at any previous stage of the war, the Germans are much worse placed to do so than they have over been. • According to a statement attributed to the Russian General Staff, the number of German divisions has been augmented, by tno process mentioned above, to at least 220, an increase of about 45 over the number in the field in the spring of 1916, and an increase of twelve divisions over the number said to have been afoot in December last. A slight expansion on the figure of 220 divisions is considered possible. To keep such a force in being involves a drain which may be expected to tell heavily upon Germany within ■' the next few monthß even if she. contrives meantime to escape a big disaster. Before long the Allies will be attacking in Italy and probably on tho East front, and in the Balkans, as well as in the Western theatre, and Germany can now less than afford to leave Austria inadequately' supported. , *■, * • •

The state of tho enemy's fortunes on land will amply account for his desire to make the most of the submarine, campaign, and it is hardly necessary to look further for motives of the statements by Admiral von Capelle and other prominent Germans which appear to-day. Against their claim, that the underwater campaign is a triumphant success may be set the statement made a day or two ago by Mr. Lloyd George. The Imperial Prime Minister did not attempt to minimise the 'gravity of the submarine menace, but he is confident that .the measures whioh are being taken will defeat the enemy campaign provided they aro carried out with vigour and determination. In twitting the Entente with the suppression of facts, von Capelle is undoubtedly fishing for information which, would make it possible to use the submarines to bettor effect. There is no doubt that specific details of sinkings, whether of merchant ships or of submarines, would be of positive value to the enemy, and would enable him to increase the efficiency of his campaign. Some English critics of the Admiralty who have lately been demanding tho publication of fuller details are unwittingly playing the enemy's game. Regarding the criticism whioh within the last few days has been directed at the Navy all that need bo said is that the critics are obviously inspired not by < any reasoned belief or knowledge that tho Navy has failed in its onerous duty, but: mainly by the fact that the number of sinkings last week was abnormally high. Even if the high rate should be maintained for a time, something more would be needed, to justify criticism of the splendid Service which enables thousands of ships to pass safely in and out 'of British ports every week.