The Dominion. MONDAY, APRIL 16, 1917. EVENTS IN THE BALKANS.

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3054, 16 April 1917, Page 4

The Dominion. MONDAY, APRIL 16, 1917. EVENTS IN THE BALKANS.

_ A new and rather.promising turn is given to the situation in the, Balkans by the \revolt in Bulgaria against the overbearing and tyrannous behaviour of the Germans there. More or less serious disorders have been fairly frequent in Bulgaria ever since King Ferdinand showed his nand,_ after a remarkable' course of duplicity, by combining with the Central Powers in an attack on Sor.bia, but they promise now to come to a head and to assume serious importance, The most reliable, news of the nature" and scope of the revollms oontained in General S,\r-itAiL-s proclamation, which shows that though the outbreak is nofconnned to Sofia it has taken particularly formidable shapo in that city. Troops and people, General Sarbah stated, in circulars which his airmen are dropping amongst Bulgarian troops, have risen against German tyranny, and German platoons were traversing the streets, fir-* ing on the inhabitants. ' It is pews calculated to make the Bulgarians on the battlefield do some very serious thinking, and it will be rather strange if they do not cast about for some alternative to maintaining a , ' defensive line against Germany's enemies while their compatriots in Sofia and" elsewhere are being slaughtered by German troops, The spirit of revoty in the Bulgarian people and doubtless be stimulated by they knowledge that America has now I 'taken her stand with the enemies of Germany, and in looking for a way out of the perilous situation in' which they are i placed they cannot but be impressed by the example lately afforded in Russia, . Considerations, of patriotism, and_of the most obvious self-in-terest will equally urge the Bulgarians to cast off their present entanglements. They would be blind not to realise that Germany,'given the opportunity, will continue to use them- .not merely as vassals but as pawns, and will cheerfully abandon them to destruction for the sake of gaining a little tinw. On _ the other hand, by submission to the Entente they may p at least hope to escape; destruction'.' They will not obtain peace without resigning their conquests, but if they' withdraw from the. Teutonic circle they would no doubt be allowed to retain the frontiers which they crossed to make a treacherous 'attack on Serbia and to invade Greece and Rumania/ It is quite open to the Entente ■ to treat with the Bulgars provided the fullest,possible reparation to Serbia and. the-other countries whose territory they have invaded is made an essential preliminary . to- a settlement; A cable message from America to-day suggests that Bulgaria has already unofficially* thrown out peace feelers,' and the view is held that Turkey is likely to follow Bulgaria's lead.'

In would be going further -than visible facts'warrant to expect,- that' a. Brovisional Government will be ,set up in Bulgaria, and that orderly steps' will be taken to,< break with Germany and submit to the .Entente. . 'The nature of Germany's, hold on her vassal will hardly permit the latter this easy way of escape. But it is not an oxtravagant assumption, in view of General SAe* rail's proclamation and the ovents v by which it was inspired, that the spirit of revolt is likely to become widespread both in the Bulgarian civil population and in the Bulgarian army. Mcfst important prospects are thus opened, for in all likelihood Germany's ability to maintain her Communications through . the Balkans with Turkey and to hold the Balkan Peninsula as a defensive outposfc is absolutely dependent upon the loyal support of the Bulgarians. It is not by any means certain that even the whole-hearted support ■ of. the Bulgarian armies would enable her to retain her footing in the Balkans-for any, length of time, but the loss 6"f Bulgarian support would alniost certainly lay her open at no distant date, to an attacE on the Danube line from the south. According'to a fairly recent estimate there are eight or nine Bulgarian divisions on tho Macedonian Front, together with two or three German divisions and ono Turkish.' A Bulgarian division includes .a much larger number of men than the' same unit in other national armies, and these- figures mean that considerably more fhan three-quar-ters of the enemy forces on the Macedonian front are Bulgarians. There are also a number of Bulgarian divisions in Rumania. It is quite obvious that the loyal ohedicnee of her Bulgg.rits.rt vassals is absolutely essential to the continued atubilioy.of Germany's position in the' Balkan:! .unless she is able not only to deal with whatever disaffection may arise in lh<> Bulgarian divisions, but if need be to replace them with Gerinar. or Austrc-Gev-man troops. /<i wveiits are going: such a diversion of strength should be we!! bovond her power, though ir. the Balkans , jar.in other theatres I something depends upon develop-! moiits in Russia.

Much l as a Bulgarian revolt formidable; enough, to upsei Gormany's military plans in ths Gouth-eaatorn

theatre would alter the situation and improve, the outlook from the Entente standpoint, it should be remembered that Entente, prospects in the Balkans are probably not in anything like tho same degreo dependynt upon the line of action taken by the Bulgarians as are those of Germany. A widespread Bulgarian revolt would undermine Germany's position in the south-east, almost certainly to a fatal degree. To the Entente th 6 revolt would'represent the removal of an obstacle to an offensive through the Balkans, but it is not by any means certain oven as matters stand that the obstacle is insuperable. According to the best available information, (J.ejje'kal Sarrail has under his command an army of something over half a million men, apart from the forces which are being organised by tho Greek Provisional Government .at r Salonika. As to these latter a correspondent of the Manchester Guqnlian stated recently that ,M. Vexitelos would-this spring have a force of 60,000 bayonets at disposal, that is' to say, the infantry of five divisions, This is consistent with earlier reports regarding the military preparations of the Provisional Government. It is hardly likely that General army is intendod to mark time indefinitely on tho long front which now takes in Monastir, and while a Bulgarian revolt against German- domination would do much to clear the s way for an Allied offensive, it is probable ; that anticipation of a formidable attack on the Macedonian front is one of the factors making for such a revolt. As the situation, is doveloping it is hardly necessary to enlarge upon the Allied motives for preferring an active to a holding campaign in the Balkans. Conceivably decisive victory in the main 'theatres might enable the Allies to dictate the settlement they desiro in the Balkans. But the expulsion of the enemy .from the Peninsula by military force would at once provide a bettor basis of settlement and might in a very; important degree influence tho main, developments of the war. • •