GERMANY'S DEFEAT

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3046, 5 April 1917, Page 5

GERMANY'S DEFEAT

— : —« —: — _ ■ MR BELLOC'S OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE "VICTORY NO LONGER DOUBTFUL" In a recent current issue of "Land and Water" Mr. Hillaire Belloc gives a most interesting resume of the positions, of the belligerents as they find themselves on tho threshold of 1917.' \\\, the form of a debit aud credit account, he presents the various factors in the struggle, and deliberately comes to the following conclusion: i "Victory is now no longer'a doubtful matter to be estimated through calculatiou. Tho obstacle to victory "is. now no longer, material. The only bar is a political one. The only uncertain faotor Lu what is now a solved problem, is the common determination—on which there can be no doubt—the common tenacity—-on which there can' be little ]e§s—-but also especially a public .comprehension throughout tho Alliance, in all civic discussion and oven among neutrals, if we can still reach, them, of what the military situation is. Granted the permanence and activity of these political factors and tho enomy may already be regarded as defeated. "But what is his defeat or-the victory of his opponents'? The old definition still stands and will always , stand. 'Of two opposed military forces that one is; victorious which by dispersion, attrition, or.in any other faehton, reduces its opponent to such marked inferiority that the continuation of the struggle is ng longer ■worth that opponent's while. .

"He may after suoh a point, if h» chooses, continue; in which case he will see. the remnant of his force decline witTi extreme rapidity. In point of fact throughout history Tie has always, as he must always upon reaching such a point, submit his will to that of the victor. . .■. . ':

"Those who think that the reduction of the enemy to this point is impossible are not possessed of tho main faets in the present situation, and could not, if they were put to it, argue their point in detail. They are simply wrong. The final decision is always reached after one critical moment before which a period, whether of a few hours or of years, has passed during which the struggle still ewung apparently indeterminate. ■■: : _ "It is particularly true of sieges and of work against fixed lines that the period has been prolonged and its indeterminate character superficially but falsely apparent. The reality is that, thie lrintif of warfare lends itself more than any other to a process of calculation, ' and that when superiority has • been established upon the one sidfy the nature of the end can, more than in any other kind of warfare, he determined. ■. '■■■.._ "But what if.for some reason beyond our control, or within our control but due to ignorance, panio, lassitude, or a , preference of private to public welfare, the 'approach to victory should be halted and terms arranged before a decision? If th'ere aro those who think that the acceptation of defeat (for it would be no lesß) would in some way save the future and permit the remainder of our time to be at least easy, oven thouah it must bo ignominious, they are quite wrong. '-■,'-■■■ ' i j. "It Prussia is saved from what awaits her by any error or evon by any accident, not time, but generations beyond us, will_ bo occupied in the intense preparation to resist future peril, and probably in the ultimate failure of that effort. Even those who may basely desire it will not return to the old ease. They will not be more,' but far less wealthy; they will be more, but far less secure;' they will not be able to relax restriction, secrecy, and all the strain of the present. They will have to multiply them indefinitely under conditions wholly military, and yet at the sauio timo bitter, disappointed, and declining. No individual or group of individuals can at this stage betray civilisation without suffering in the common ruin. And if this could be true of ono community more than of another, it is especially true of tho community which lives through and upon the sea." .