THE NEXT BALLOT

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3036, 24 March 1917, Page 10

THE NEXT BALLOT

TO BE DRAWN IN THREE WEEKS THE FIRST DIVISION HOW LONG BEFORE EXHAUSTION? It is understood that the next military ballot will be drawn on about April 10 or April 11. Generally, the ballots aro drawn within four weeks of one anbtherj but there is a greater period of time between the fifth ballot and the. one to come. . As each fresh ballot is drawn the interest, in a sense, becomes keener, particularly among thoso liable to bo drawn, as every, ballot bring the First Division men nearer the camp. jlt is probable that tho next ballot will be about the same sisso (numerically) as the last one, which ran into slightly oyer 4500. • . If. 4500'aro drawn, the six ballots will have put through 26,470 men. Details are:— .' • November ballot ......... 4,000 December ballot 3,000 January ballot ......... 3,600 February ballot 6,867 March ballot ...4,053 ..April ballot 4,500 ;. Total ;:.......... 26,470 The five ballots already drawn are reckoned to have produced 7300 men (a third of the number drawn), and if the coming ballot realises 1500, the net result of the half-dozen ballots will be about 880.0 men. ■

With the progress of the ballots the numerical strength of the First Division 'is, of course, decreasing. The original • strength of the Division was stated to be 84,986. At the conclusion of the fourth ballot, which was drawn on February 7, tho strength, of the Division was reckoned to be just under 60,000. The fifth ballot reduced it to about 55,500," and the next ballot, it is presumed, will bring the ■ number down to 51,000. These figures have taken no account of the men who have enlisted in the last several months, so the numbe of men remaining in the First Division may now be set down at about 49,000. ' .'•'■•■■■'■ If the 49,000 calculation is right, the Division should last for at least another ten months, judging by the simplest of calculations.

But-there-seems-.to be a big possibility of; the Division holding out for. even longer than;that. On_ihe surface it may seem that the Divisionis; being..exhausted'' at'.'a certain rate month by month, but the fact is that only a third of the men. drawn .ire going into camp, so that somo portion of the other two-thirds goes back into the ballot. For this reason it is difficult, if not impossible, to make a calculation, as to the probable date of the winding up of the JTirst Division.

.The above figures are largely calculations, but an. official return since mado available supports them. The Government Statistician states that at the conclusion of the fifth ballot 55,419 men remained in the Division, and his details are:— Ist Division Recruiting ... Men District. Remaining. No'. I—Auckland City 8,529 „ 2—Hauraki ."" J,431 „ 3—North Auckland 1,637 „ 4-Waikato 2,436 „ 5-Wcllington City 5,765 „ 6—Manawatu 2,554 „ 7—Hawkc's Bay 2,137. „ B—Taranaki 2,652 ' ~ 9—Christcliurch 4,083 „ 10—South Canterbury ... 2,518 „ 11—North Canterbury ... 1,420 „12—Nelson :..... 1,961 „ 13—Duncdin ...... 3,534 „ 14—Southland 3,257 „ 15—North Otago 1,183 „ 16—CluthV 1,081 „ 17—Bay of Plenty 1,110 „ 18—Wairarapa 2,120 „ 19-Poverty Bay ■...:... 1,688 „ 20—Wauganui ... '2,086 „ 21—West Coast 2,237 Total 55,419