RUSSIA'S DOUBLE CONFLICT

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3030, 17 March 1917, Page 9

RUSSIA'S DOUBLE CONFLICT

GLIMPSE OF REVOLUTIONARY FACTORS A PROPHETIC ARTICLE , As long ago as in the January 5 issue of the American "Outlook," the prospect of a war-time revolution in Russia -was scriouslv discussed in a special article, "Tho Double War of the Russian People," by Mr. Gregory Mason. "It is difficult," he said', "to estimate the probabilities of a revolution in Russia. There may be ono before spring if the war goes awry, or if Russia- is betrayed into a separate peace with Germany by false leadors. In the latter case there would be an excellent chance that the army would go right on fighting, and, supported by the people and by men in the upper classes who are unalterably opposed to German dominance in Russia, such as the Grandl Duke Nicholas, and Sergius Sazonoff (then Minister of Foreign Affairs), would frustrate the hopes of tho Germanophile Camarilla. " Theso remarks aro so prophetic that considerable weight is due to what Mr. Mason says in the course of liis article. Seething with Conflicting Emotions. 'Russia," he said over a year ago, "is seething with corflicting emotions. In this oritical hour she is torn by tbo many divergent reactions of her people to do different things or to do the same thing differently. Always a country of contradictions, the contradictions have never heon so marked) as now. Always a prey to politics and intrigue, in this trial hour of her history her system is weakenod hy the unabated gnawing of these twin diseases in her vitals. First, the Russian people, in the mass aro utterly devoted to the prosecution of the war with Germany; and, second, a large part of the Russian people, probably a large majority of them, aro dissatisfied with their Government and the way it is contacting this war. This WRr is their own war—a war of democracy against autocracy—the people feel.as they' havo never felt of any war before. Their , confidence in tho outcomo is not a jubilnDt confidence, hut a oonfidenco born of dogged determination, of a grim,_ aluiGSt unanimous resolution to 'see it through,' There is no peace talk anywhere among the masses of real Russians—despite the treachery and inclination to quit among a certain, mostly mongrel, oltmenfc of tho population.

"The nearer one goes to the front-, the roore optimistio one finds the inhabitants in regard! i© the outcome of the war with Germany. Only in Potrograd, permeated with the atmosphere of intrigue and the cynicism of the professional politician, is there much pessimism. And oven, there the majority laugh at the fears of the minority. A Necessary Evil. "But Russia to-day is unlike France in the dissatisfaction of Russia's people with their Government. United in their determination to carry on tho war with tho invaders the ,R,ussians are, but they are not satisfied with the Government's leadership, and) many of them say frankly that hefore thoy can overthrow the external enemy they must reconstruct their own •political machine. ■ Others, however, say that to attempt such a. reconstruction now would mean an internal struggle that would give Germany an easy opening to victory, a.nd they counsel putting up with the present Government till-the war storm lias blown over. * As oh© of tho libera! leaders-put it; the Russian people are in tho -position of a man passing along the edge of a. precipico in an automobile who sees that his chauffeur has suddenly gone insane. What shall he do ? If he does nothing, the demented chauffeur may drivp the car over the cliff; hut, on the other hand, if he attempts to take tho wheel from the irresponsible driver, in tho struggle that will doubtless ensue the momentarily unpiloted oar may plunge to destruction. 'It is best for the time heing to do nothing and trust to luck,' this politician said, 'keeping a close oye on the chauffeur, with tho resolvo to attempt to throw him overhoard if ho veers the car towards the

precipice.' This advice- the majority of the Russians to-day seem disposed to follow, but any day they may decide to grapple with their chauffeur if the danger from him increases.

Causes of Discontent. "Partly their discontent is due to inefficiency and corruption in the Government, which ha-s bc«n responsible for the inadequate equipping of the army, and particularly for the shortage in guns and ammunition, which has caused Russia's heaviest defeats. Ammunition gave out, it is alleged, because the officials charged with order-, ing it abroad withheld the orders while they haggled with the manufacturers for their personal commissions. In tho meantime Russian soldiers were going into the trenches without rifles and the army was falling back from tho Carpathians through Lemberg, "Warsaw, and Vilna with empty artillery. The popular discontent is due in part to the removal of the Grand Duke Nicholas from his former position as Com-mander-in-Chief of the Russian forces —a step which the people are convinced was brought about by jealousy,

treachery, and other sinister influences at Court. But it is due much more and mainly to tho people's resentment that they are denied their right to a share of the control in the conduct of a war which concerns their most vital interests and to which they are giving their lives and property without reserve. Specifically and particularly their indignation was fanned by tho Tsar's peremptory adjournment of tho Duma, that body whose existence, provides the principal trace of central constitutional government in Russia. Another thorn that rankles in the flesh of tho masses is tho unnecessary shortage .of sugar, flour, and coal. This shortage exists because of inefficiency in tho transportation service, which prevents tho flow of these commodities from certain provinces where there is much of them to the big cities. Early in the fall the quantity of sugar which householders wcro permitted to buy at ono time -was restricted to about two pounds., and as a result tho "sugar lines" began. When I left Petrograd and Moscow, before every shop that dealt in sugar all day long one could find a single file of citizens stretching off from a block or two from tho door of tho sugar shop, each person in lino standing for an hour or more before reaching the counter. These pcoplo wcro there through rains and l blizzards, and as the thormomoter foil their tempers rose. A bread or sugar lino is a splendid place to talk politics, and a fertile field for tho efforts of agitators. The million war refugees in Petrograd, tho million in Moscow, and ,the hundreds of thousands in other cities audi towns, like tho discontented householders, also feel bitterly towards the Government which deliberately wiped out their'homes as tho army fell back, refusing to permit tho people to remain and live behind tho advancing German lines. Such people provide eager audiences for the advocates c-f violent reform, f/iviiig for tho most part in railway stations, warehouses, stables, hen houses, nntl tyopli oogoU (warm corners) bore and_ there, fed fni sufficiently; and spasmodically, by, char-

ity, suffering . from cold and! disease, these refugees from the occupied provinces, whose number is variously estimated at from five to ten millions, form the gravest immediate problem in Russia to-day. Thousands of thorn have died already, hundreds of thousand's more will die before spring unless the resources of the Empire are concentrated at once to their relief. This winter, which has already begun in all its Russian bitterness, promises to be crowded with more suffering than any in Russian history, and the. Germans hope that it will be so, for starving refugees, and angry householders who are forced to stand in the snow for their sugar and flour, are the material of which revolutions are made. When you have stood on numbed feet for hours at a tinia several days in tlio month because your influenco is insufficient to got in bulk the commodities which it is common knowledge your neighbours with "pull" are so getting, you begin to want to throw things. The nerves of the Russian masses aro on edge, their tenv pers are worn fine, and an extra blizzard or two might bring the irritation of _ enough of them to the exploding point to produce a detonation which would shatter the existing political order, and incidentally give the Germans the opportunity to gain such an irretrievable advantage that Russia would have to make peace, Some sort of

force'ful public protest seems inevitable if tho inefficiency and corruption that have hampered Russia's army are not eliminated, and if tho demand of the people for a representative ministry and a share in rjie management of the war is not granted. This protest may take tho form of an organised revolution or it may take the form of a series of isolated riots. Evidences of Unrest. "Evidences of popular unrest aro everywhere. In Moscow, where tho Russian national pulse beats nearest on the_ surface, the people are at such a tonsionthat every time a cart is upset they jump at the clatter and come running from all directions to learn if a bomb has been thrown. Everywhere tho engrossing subject is politics. Whenover people come together for any purpose whatsoever, tho conversation inevitably comes around to the internal situation. Every meeting for war relief, for the organisation of the national resouroes, for the discussion of. art, agriculture, poetry, or what not, becomes a political meeting. In flie restaurants, on the street cars, in their homes, the people' talk politics, and in the hospitals' similar discussions are kopt up from cot to cot by wounded soldiers. Foreigners who return to Russia to-day after ten or' oven five years' absonoo voice their astonishment at the change .in the people. Ptiblio discussion rages. Newspapers are read as never before. Last summer the trains running through the interior of Russia woro met at every little country stations by peasants, who begged newspapers from travellers through the car windows. Those who could read the papers read them aloud to those who could not. In a store or hall in every little village ono can. find knots of peasants getting the news from one of their number who is blessed with literacy. Moreover, the eighty per cent, illiteraay of file Russian people, to which writers about Russia so often refer as proof of the imputed _ ignqrance_ of the Russian masses, is rapidly diminishing.. Awakened by the great spiritual currents that this war has set in motion, tho Russian muzhik has caught a vision that is moving him even under the dead weight of centuries of submission and dumb acceptance of the status quo in society which has pinned him down. Idle for weeks at a time in hospitals, thousands of peasants are learning to read. _ Nurses in the American Hospital _iu Petrograd say that instead of the eighty per cent, of illiteracy which they were taught to expect among the common soldiers, ihey havo.found less than forty per cent.' This war has meant travel, opportunity to meet and exchange viewpoints with strangers, and a- general widening of "the horizon of millions of low-class Russians. It

has been the dawn of a new day of mental and spiritual promise to millions of muzhiks who but for it would havo spent all their lives near the scenes of their nativity, mentally rotting in the acceptance of the philosophy of 'Nichevo'—never mind. The Now Liberalism. "All Russia' is thrilling with a new liberalism. Every one has caught it except a few whoso interests are inextricably tangled in the old order of things. Baron Rosen, former Ambassador to tho United States, always reputed a reactionary until a few months ago, has como out in favour of the rights of Jews, Poles, and the other races who have heretofore been the under-dogs in Russia. Liberalism won much at the recent fall elections, and now the Progressive Bloc has some adherents even among; the representatives of nobility in the Council of tho Empire. The 'United Nobility, which has been one of the most reactionary organisations in Russia,. the purposs of which has been to preserve intact the ancient privileges of tho nobility at any expense, is how in danger of dissolution. Without any authorisation from the body, one of its members asked Premier Goremykin to dissolve the Duma. This presumptuous act was resented by the majority of the United Nobility, and the offending member's name was stricken from the list of the organisation. Tho quarrel that ensued seems to havo disrupted the United Nobility permanently. The cleavage that is marked through all classes of Russia society is visible in tho Ministry. It is woll known that some of the Ministers were displeased bv the high-handed manner in which that wheel-horse of the old euard, Oorpinykin, brought about the adjournment of the Duma, Sazonoff, the .Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Krivosheyn, the Minister of Agriculture, hare several times been rumoured to bo on the point of resigning (Sazanoff has since resigned) because, it is commonly believed, they have angered the Premier by urging acquiescence with some of tho demands of the people. Tilings that nooplo dared not think ten yenrs ago they are saving oponlv now. Ten years ago only tho intelligentsia were aware of the rieril embodied in

tlio presence of the degenerate Rasputin in power nt court. To-day every janitor, cab-driver, and cook in Petrograd feels that he has a personal grievance against the unprincipled and profligate' hypnotist, and Rasrmtin skulks hehind the Tsar at Field Headquarters, behind the Empress nt Tsarkoo Solo, or in his well-guarded nnartment on the Gorochovaya. not daring to show his face on the Ncvsk'y Prospect. MiliukolT— Reformer. "The height of free speech, so far as I know, was reached at a meeting held in the yellow-towered Pctrograd town hall by the newly-formed Society for the Promotion of Mutual Friendly Eolations between Russia and America. It was announced that the- proceeds of the meeting would bo devoted to tho wants of Russian prisoners of war in Germany. A. number of celebrated political speakers were advertised, including Paul Miliukoff, the leader of the Cadet party, Professor Kovalovsk.v, a prbi grcssive independent in polities, and Rodichov, one of tho shrewdest members of the Cadets, Tho long hall was crowded with a.ll sorts of Russians—plmnjp) prosperous, merchants, officers in tan service uniform?", professors from the University of Pctrograd and tlicir long-haired, emaciated students, whoso faces burned with a strango enthusiasm in tho close, smoky k 'qtmosphere. Every seat was filled

half an hour boforo the meeting was opened, and men and women stood three deep against the wall and on the platform behind <ho speakers. The people told each other quit© frankly why they were there. 'Wo are not hero because of our intercstTin America, although that is great,' they said, 'nor because of our desire to help our prisoners in Germany, which is even stronger; but wo are hero to hear Miliukoff and the others talk" politics.' "They were not disappointed. With the representatives of tho police and tho censorship sitting directly below the speakers' platform, Eodichev told the audience that tho American people cannot understand how a people of the intelligence of the Russians can tolerate a form of government so outworn as theirs. But the climax was reached when Miliukoff warmed up to his subject. He had been describing the German propaganda in the United States and comparing it with the similar campaign of underliandedness from which Russia has suffered to a larger extent. Then he mentioned interests and traits which Russians and Americans have in common. 'The American people sympathise- with the Russian people and have much in common with them,' said IfiTiulcoff in the crisp, firm manner of speaking characteristic of him, "but the Russian Government is a wall between tho two peoples which prevents the expression of this sympathy, which prevents either people acquiring a full understanding nf the other. Therefore the first endeavour of tboso who wish to bring these two peoples closer together should be to tear down this wall.'

"The agents of the police ulmked a little like men whoso faces have been -tickled in their- sleep; Baron Rosen, the president of the society, moved uneasily in his seat, and turned pale: while the audience to an individual stood up and roared its approval of these sentiments. That was all, except that all refcronce to this part of Miliukoff's speech was omitted from the newspapers the next day by permission of the censor. Revolution? "The problem for the Liberals is complox. They are sure that the people aro strong enough to win a revolution now. But are the people strong onough to postpone the revolution, to prosecute the war, to a successful issue in spite of the bungling of some officials and tho downright treachery of others, and then, despite the new prestige which the Government would secure by such "a victory, to begin their second war, tho internal one, and'win it? If the revolution were to come now, tho army would be with it, or at least not against it, tho members of the liberal "parties "believe; for their own sons and Mothers constitute a largo part of the_ rank and file and fill many high positions also. But after peace has been signed with Germany it will bo easy for the bureaucracy to disband that part of the army which is liberal in its sympathies, keeping in Harness the professional remnant which will be loyal to the autocracy. Then will not the very success of the war against Germany militate against the success of th 9 people's internal'war, followed as such a victory might well be, by a wave of reaction? Perhaps so, but it is better to run that risk than to take the larger one of assuring German victory in the East by launching a revolution now.

"Such is the view-point of the majority of that substantial body of Russians who form the membership of the parties allied in the Progressive 8100, a liberal coalition that controls a majority of the delegates in the Duma. A minority counsels radical measures now, believing that the people are strong enough to assert themselves instantly and get a new government overnight, not disturbing the alignment of the regiments at the front and by the very, speed of tlie manoeuver giving the Germans no opening to . strike. 'Who knew that France was ready for a revolution, in 1789 or England in 1648?" ask'these men. 'We are more prepared than they were then, and would make quicker work of it.' This is not true at all. The truth is that there is next to no preliminary organisation for a revolution, and if one comes it will bo spontaneous, and will have to rely on its own momentum to carry it along, like the revolution of 1905 which, failed. Wherefore the majority of the Liberal element is wise in following tho guidance of men like Miliukoff, who counsel unity till the end of tho war. Miliukoff is' hampered by his academic past, as Mr. H. W. Williams says in his 'Russia of the Russians.' Miliukoff's mistakes 'are those that academic men do make when they overreach themselves in trying to be practical.' But, on the whole, he is the wisest and steadiest leader that Russian Liberalism has to-day; there is more of the Joan of Arc and more of the Lincoln in, him than in any other Liberal in political life. He has vision. Tho position of the Government is hard to analyse. It seems alternately compromising, as when the Duma was convened last August with many promises of power to it by tho Premier (M. Goremykin), and sternly repressive, as when tho Duma was adjourned. When one sees the provocation of workmen by Government agents, such as is going on in Moscow, one believes that the Government wants a revolution, perhaps on tlie theory that it would be more easily handled now than later. When one sees that Miliukoff and his colleagues are allowed much latitude so long as they counsel present unity, one believes what is most natural to believq, namely, that the Government does not want a revolution."