PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3009, 21 February 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Citing Hindenbukg as his authority for facts and theories, the Prime Minister of Bavaria has made a statement about war prospects which suggests that\ tho German; rulers are Tiard put'Ho it to find means of encouraging a warweary population. It is not .to-bo supposed that any large number of people even in Germany will bo deceived by the extraordinary assertions attributed to Hindenburg. His. view is, we are told, that in theory tho war might continuo indefinitely, because German ' reinforcements exceed German losses. The German frontiers are intact,' and the German army, has been. completely successful, but tho ■ enemy could continue indefinitely, and therefore submarine warfare, is tho only way to quickly finish the war. Even as ,it stands' this 'really amounts to a confession that the failure of the submarines will entail German defeat. From first to last, however, the, statement, is a wild of the position actually- reached in the war, and a really heroic effort in dissimulation is involved in treating as items in a record of success the noavy defeats suffered by the enemy armies in the main theatres last year. It is true that up to the present Germany's reinforcements .have exceeded her losses. Probably she has more men in tho field at tho present time than at any previous stage of the war, though.it is to be remembered that she has lost the flower of her manhood and now relieso largely upon boys, elderly men, and men , ; wno would in the ordinary way be classed as unfit. The claim that Germany ,is in a position, to indefinitely reinforce her armies on a scale more than covering her losses is, of course, absurd. According to the best available information Ger-many-and her allies will be at a loss for reserves before the end of next summer. Mr. Hilaike Belloc, who has examined a vast amount of evidence and made exhaustive calculations, states the position in the following terms: "For every 65 men tiiafc the enemy now has in actionusing the words "in action" . to mean inclusive of tho field depots and the zone of_ tho armies, but exclusive df tho militarily useless men who still draw and are in uniform, at work of one kind or another behind ,tho armies—tho enomy sees drafts of about twenty to supply wastage 1 between this and tho late, part of next summer. If is grossly insufficient. Tho Allianco in every part of it sees indefinitely larger reserves of human material."

It is.hardly necessary, to go further into tlio matter on these lines. „Tho position is broadly that while tlio cud of tho euomy's reserves of men is in plain sight, tho, drain upon his strength will in tho near future- assume greater proportions than at any previous stage in the war. This will he due mainly to the greatly increased striking power of the Allies, but in part to the fact that the' enemy has a much greator length of active front to provide for than he had last yoar.

er theatres, in which activities are Apart from tho Balkans and smallrising, the main Eastern front is three hundred miles longer now than it was last summer. If tho enemy had visiblo prospects of adopting a policy of contracting his fronts and reducing tho drain upon his resources Hindenbueg's remarks about the possibility of an indefinitely continued defensivo war, might call for closer examination. But in actual fact tho enemy seems to be doomed to stand or fall on his present lines. It is unlikely that ho can retreat either in east or west without inviting disaster. This being so, the answer to talk about an indefinite defensive stand is that while the resources of the Allies: are rapidly increasing the force- with which the enemy is holding his lines is bound to decline long before the year is out.

An extraordinary position is revealed in Mesopotamia by a message which reports an unsuccessful British attack upon the Turkish entrenchments at 'Sannaiyat. This place is fourteen miles downstream from . Kut-el-Amara, on tho north bank of the Tigris, Tho Turkish lines extend across a causeway of firm ground a mile or two wido between the river and an extensive marsh. Tho,south bank of . tho Tigris is now in British hands to a point between five and six • miles west : of Kut. Over, a distance of twenty miles as tho crow flies—considerably more following tho windings of the river—tho opposing armies hold opposite banks of tho Tigris. Below Sannaiyat both banks of the rivor aro in British occupation, and the Turks hold both banks on the western part of tho battlefront. Each army is conveniently placed to attack tho other's communications; but tho British, since they are now in a position to press tho offensive, are much moro likoly to profit by this circumstance than the enemy ; It is unlikely that any particular significance attaches to tho failure of. the British attack at Sannaiyat, or thai; moro than a holding attack was The official report mentions that further progress has been made on the south bank west of tho Shumran bend. It is in this locality that .the enemy -is chiefly vulnerable and that developments may be looked for. .