PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3006, 17 February 1917, Page 8

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

During the last few days the number of ships destroyed by submarines has dropped considerate below the figures recorded for tlfJ first ten days of this month, it would be rash to expect the rate ot destruction to go on falling without fluctuation, but tho drop Jit piescnt in evidence is nevertheless' sotable. It is not to be supposed that the Germans would allow their ruthless underwater campaign to slacken in this way except from unavoidable causes. The fall in tho rate of destruction of merchant ships may be reasonably explained on two grounds. One is the of submarines, and the other is increasing efficiency in the taken to evade and foil their attack. One item of news to-day supplies an effective retort to the Kaiser's melodramatic boasting about the intimidation of neutrals. It is the report that. Danish and Scandinavian steamers which have been held in American ports are resuming their running. . * * *

While some general suggestions are afoot that the Germans may make the first big move in the Western theatre,- detail reports make it quite clear that the Allies are chiefly responsible for the rising 'stir of activity already in evidence. These reports, though they deal only with local' actions and raids, present several features that deserve to be emphasised. The Germans speak in general terms of "numerous reconnaissance engagements," in the ' British section of the front, which resulted in "considerable enemy losses." These are perhaps the raids which Sir Douglas Haig mentions as having been broken under .artillery fire. . M all events against the enemy generalities there are to be set Allied reports giving details of notably successful local attacks and . raids on various parts of tho front. Late news, yesterday told of the capture by the British of another position in ■ the Ancre.. valloy, a strong point south-east of' Grandcourt, and- of -a highly successful and destructive raid which penetrated to," tho enemy's third trench line north-east of Arras. To-day there is news of a successful British faid north-east of Gueudecourt (south of Bapaume). Similar achievenments have been recorded by. the French, and there docs not seem to bo any doubt that- in ; this stir of raiding and local fighting the balance of advantage has turned heavily against the enemy. A French message which speaks today of furious mutual bombardment possibly heralds bigger events than have lately been witnessed.

Now and then tho Germans make a very clumsy job of the falsification of reports. An instance 'in point is a report published to-day, in which they admit a withdrawal from "advanced positions between Serre and the Somme.'" This is an obvious attempt to hide the true nature of their loss,, and one which is likely to; bo before long: in its true colours. It is nearer -the truth to say that the.British are•working into tho heart of the enemy's, defences, in their advance along the Ancre valley, than that they have compelled him to withdraw from advanced positions. One result, though not tho only result, of the' recent British advance, has been to expose Serre hill, which is a powerful pillar in the German line to attack in flank. To talk about tho loss.of "advanced positions," in these circumstances, is sheer nonsense.

Colonel Repington is quoted today as forecasting "furious German offensives on land and sea" in the near future. As to the land war, Germany's prospects are so unpromising, should, sho elect to stand on the defensive against a concerted Allied attack, that the Kaiser and his advisers may conceivably prefer any alternative, no matter how desperate. This being so, it is quite possiblo that Germany may attempt to anticipate and derange the Allied offensive. Yesterday the statement was credited to Sir Douglas Haig that if the Germans adopted such a policy their folly would cost them dear. To : day General llawlinson is reported as sajing that if it pleases Hindenburg and his subordinates to ordain a vain massacre of thousands of men the Allies will not complain, lifverythfng, he adds, is ready for the enemy's reception at any hour and place. These remarks _ suggest, that the prospect, or. possibility, of a German offensive on the "' West front is regarded much less seriously by the British commanders than by Colonel Repington. In what he has to say about tho preparations Germany has made for the 1917 campaign, the military correspondent of l'hc limes seems to take a good deal for granted. For instance, ho says that Germany has thoroughly swept up the men m the occupied regions, enforced industrial conscription, ,and formed fifty*ix new divisions. Hitherto no certain information has been available as to-tho number of men Germany has succeeded in raising in the occupicd regions, but various reports have ascribed complete failure to her recruiting scheme in Russian Poland. Unless Colonel Repington is possessed of later a.nd better information than is commonly available, his remark about the thorough sweeping up of men in the occupied regions is subject on this account to material modification. There are grounds also for doubting whether industrial conscription in Germany has released ■any large number of, men for military service.

Another point to be noted is that Colonel Kepington speaks of the formation "of 56 new German divisions as if this entailed' a straightout accession of strength. The fact is well established, however, that a. very largo proportion of the new German divisions formed in . 1916 were- created by reducing tho normal infantry strength of a division from twelve .battalions to nine. Under this plan, instituted by Hindenbueg, or by his right-hand man, Ludendorff, the number of enemy divisions was increased, but without increasing tho strength of the armies in which-they-are grouped.' The precise extent to which Germany has expanded-her resources by recruiting.in occupied'territoryand by deportations is unknown, but the weight of-evidence is that

she, is in such serious straits f° r men that she is not onl,v incapable of expanding her existing formations, but is likely to find herself completely at a loss for. reinforcements. before. this year's campaign has run its course. ' Though his review of the is in some details open to criticism, Colonel Repington in his general conclusion echoes the prevailing view, that an offensive effort by Germany this year will be. an exhausting effort. It will represent, he says, her maximum endeavour, after which drafts will not be obtainable.

In its reference to a furious enemy offensive at sea, Colonel Repington's forecast is not convincing. ■ He speaks of Hindenbuhg's "temptation to sacrifice the fleet in securing temporary command of the Channel, and to invade England,." but this certainly does not state the facts of the naval situation fairly or accurately. That the German fleet may be risked or sacrificed in a sortie is quite possible, but it does not by any means follow that the result would ■ be to give the Germans even temporary command of Sie Channel or bring •them within measurable distance of being able to invade England. For reasons that have lost none of their force, the capital ships of the German fleet have from the outset carefully avoided the' narrow - seas through which run the vital communications between England and France, and there is probably no less promising field for German enterprise in the whole area of the war.