PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2999, 9 February 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

the- situation on the Riga front J ''a described by A Pctrograd cor- | respondent, it promises well. A continuous battle, ho states, is raging, into which the Germans have I thrown two army corps—four times I the strength they formerly devoted to holding their line in the locality of the battle. It will lie remembered that at tile beginning of January the Russians drove the Germans out of their winter positions west and south-west of Iliga, and these the enemy lias since striven desperately to regain. Some of the ground won by tho llussiaiw has been recovered, but according 1 to the correspondent tho Germans arc now at a standstill, and ill vain attempts to better their position are suffering much ■. moro heavily than tho Russians. He mentions also that a Russian salient has beeil driven to within two miles of tho Mitau-Tukkum railway, and remarks that this railway is the enemy's most important line of communication on the lliga front. This is .probably true. Tho Mitau-Tuk-kuiu railway is important because it supplies the flank of tho enemy's line where it rests on tho Gulf of Ri'ga. Loss of tho railway would 'probably compel tho enemy to swing back his flank and extend it to the outer Baltic'coast, which, would entail holding a much longer and - much more vulnerable front than , tho ono he is now endeavouring to i restore to its former strength. From ; the Russian point of view the Riga i battle is no doubt a diversion, but i it is a diversion which is likely to : develop very great iriiportance- The > enemy has much to lose on the Riga i front. Ho has no visible prospect ;of gain. From the Russian point > of view the Riga battle is promis- > ing prelude to tho much greater i conflicts which will open before long - on the main East front.

Biutish operations on tho Ancrc, on tho northern section of tho Somtne front, arc rapidly developing importance. Practically continuous progress lias lately ' been made along the valley of the Ancrc, towards Bapaumo, and to-day Sik Dougms Haig reports, that tho fortified village of Grandecourt has been captured. Grandccouristands on a railway just south of, the Ancre, and neaily a mile cast of Bcaucourt, one of the villages captured in the Battle, of the Ancrc which was fought in November last. Apparently the enemy 'was forced to evacuate Grandecourt by the pressure of enveloping attacks along both banks of th<j Ancre, but it is stated that his losses in the neighbourhood were heavy.

It is too soon to attempt to weigh tho probable results of the new campaign of sea frightfulness upon which Germany lias embarked, but its results to date are sufficients ly serious. In the first week of the present month 54 British and neutral ships were sunk —nciK'ly half as many as were suuk during tho whole of January. Even this cannot be regarded as a maximum rate of destruction. It is inentionod in ono message to-day that 23 ships (13 of them British) have been reported sunk within twenty-four hours, and a' number of vessels included in this list wero of big tonnage. For purposes of comparison, it may bo noted that the largest number of British ships sunk iu one week during 1915 was twenty, and tho maximum British tonnage lost in ono week ok. that year was 79,727. From the date on which their campaign was inaugurated, February 18, 1915, until January 1, 1917 —a period of 97 weeks—the enoray submarines (according.to French official figures lately published) sank 3,O00j00() tons of shipping of all nations. This works out at an average of something over . 30,000 tons of shipping per week. During tho week just' ended tho average was nearly doubled, and judging by reports in hand,- tho averago is likely to bo still further, perhaps materially, exceeded.

Obviously, if the presentrate of destruction could bo maintained for any length of time, a very serious position would be created,. though even then the results for which Germany hopes would not necessarily bo in sight. Expedited shipping construction, and the economical use of. tonnage, economy of consump-! fcion, and other measures, offer a wide scope for minimising tho effects of tho submarine depredations, epiito apart from what is done in tho way of hunting down and destroying the undorwatcr raiders and of arming merchant ships. It is quite an open question, however, whether Germany will be able to .maintain the present rate of destruction of merchant ships for more thau a month or two, if as long. The whole subject is. at present 1 largely in the field of conjecture, but one or two points ave worth noting. Tho arresting fact at tho moment is that the rate of destruction has been suddenly and sharply elevated, precisely to what height it is impossible yet to say. A great deal depends upon the methods by which this increased' rate of destruction has been achieved. - Two obviousexplanations of tho increase arc available. One is' that it is due tp tho abandonment of all restrictions, notably to the general, as distinct from the occasional, adoption of attack without warning, and the invasion of neutral territorial waters. Another is that in opening her new campaign at the beginning of this ruontn, Germany placed a number, perhaps a largo numbo'r, of additional submarines in commission. There is ample evidence that Germany has abandoned all restrictions upon hor piratical raiding, and no doubt a number of ships havo as a result been sunk which would othorwiso havo escaped. But it seems likely also that tho strength lof the submarine flotillas has been I increased.

Wr know at least that in earlior stages of_ tho undoi'wator campaign, notably in tho latter part of 1915, it was by increasing the number of submarines in commission that Gorman,v levied a maximum toll on merchant shipping, and that from theso conditions a. destruction of submarines resulted which quickly brought the rate of shipping losses

down again. If at Hio present time Germany is accomplishing an .increased destruction •yf tsbljjfiing simply by oil restraints upon : pirfi'l;]c<il procedurci tho position is'iwueli graver than if she had 'occflJiYplislicd this end, as she did in .iSIS, by. rapidly augmenting the strength of her flotillas with a view to a maximUm effort. Tho destrueti.Oi) tsf submarines is not officially VftpoVtod, but from tho mil,lire of tho measures fcakeu for their destruction, it is likely that the enemy cannot increaso the strength of his flotillas without suffering increased losses. If these conditions hold good now as they did formerly it must bo assumed that there arc definite limits to tho possible duration of an intensified campaign against merchant shipping. It is, of course, not to be suggested that these limits are as narrowly drawn now as they wore in 1915. But there are reasonable grounds for believing that the increased destruction of shipping at present in evidence does not moan that tho submarine campaign has got out of hand, biit rather that Germany is purchasing results at a price in submarines which sots a definite limit to the duration of her effort. A number of incidents reported to-day seem to bring tho day of American intervention nearer. Germany is evidently committed to a policy in which lawless piracy goes nand-in-hand with a systematic invasion of noutral rights, and whatever remaining doubts Amcrica' may entertain should speedily bo resolved. Tho position of other neutrals, the Scandinavian countries, Holland,Yand Spain, is much less clear. Their refusal to follow Amorica's lead in_ severing diplomatic relations with Germany is hardly to bo wondered at, but they aro left in a particularly awkward dilemma. ,All of theni rely largely upon import and export trade, and they are already suffering under tho interruption of shipping. No ready solution of their problems is in sight. To an extent they are intimidated by Germany, but possibilities in this direction seem to be limited. Tho smaller neutrals havo nothing to hope from the country which is making them the incidental victims of her lawless policy. Germany has little more to offer them than a companionship in dearth and famine. The Entente, on the other hand, has studiously respected their interests, interfering no more with their trado than is necessary to prevent their serving as import and export depots for Germany. If national interests rule the matter Germany is not likely to be successful in turning the present hardships and difficulties of her neutral neighbours to profitable account.