PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2995, 5 February 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A wsracTw new turn is given to the submarine campaign by the. news that Amorica has severed" diplomatic relations with Germany It seems clear that tho latter country must either invite war with tho Umtod States or forthwith renounce her programme of unrestricted piracy, but just what turn events will take it is at the moment impossible k> say. Present indications arc that Germany has made up her mind to completely force tho issue with America, .but, all moral quostions apart, it is impossible to imagine grounds whiqh would reasonably warrant her in doing so. The only available explanation is that she is actuated by a spirit of sheer desperation. Looking only at the position at sea, all that Germany would gain by a complete breach with America would be freedom to use her submarines as she thinks fit. Considering how little she has been , restrained by American protests up to tbo present in tho employment of her underwater craft, this gain is not likely to bo of very groat or lasting importance. On the othor hand, war with Amorica would introduce a number of factors tending in a material degree to dofoat the submarine campaign. It would involve an addition to the forces arrayed against the submarines which is by no means as negligible as some of to-day's messages suggest. It would release, largely or wholly for the use of the Allies, the half a million tons of German shipping interned in American ports. Another point of some importance is that it has hitherto seemed likely that America might refuse the- statue of merchantmen to Allied ships adequately, armed against submarines and excludethem from her porta- With America herself -at war this difficulty would, of course, disappear.

Apart from these consequences of war between the United Skates and Germany, other and wider prospects are raised, though, ae yofc quite tentatively. In his statement to Congress President Wilson remarked that if it became necessary to protect Americans on the high, seas he anticipated that other neutrals would co-operate. A league of neutral nations pledged to action against the submarines in protection of their common interests would be apt to heavily outweigh any material advantage Germany might gain by a policy of unrestricted murder and piracy. A statement credited to-day to tho Spanish Premier, some messages which have lately come from Holland, and the action already taken by Norway in excluding, belligerent submarines from her territorial waters, all suggest tbafc.the smaller neutral nations concerned aro not dis- j inoliaed to acc&pfc euoh a lead as

President Wibson foreshadows. The smaller neutrals are not in a position l:o play any formidable par I. in an anti-submarine campaign, bill, their co-operation would nevertheless be valuable to the Entente, if

only for tho reason that it would permit the extension of the submarine hunt into neutral territorial waters. If all coasts were hostile to the submarines their chances of passing safely k> and fro would Tjo materially reduced. These possibilities arc nebulous enough for tho time being,_ but if Germany persists in the spirit of reckless desperation expressed in the Note to America it is a.t least as likely that tho neutrals will form an offensive and defensive* league against her submarine raiders as that they will consent to keep their merchant ships tied up in port. In one message to-day a higji official of the American Navy is quoted as- stating that Germany could easily blockade the coast of the United States, paralysing tho internal and foreign trade of the country, and more to the same effect. If a high American official has really made these statements he is obviously a person who should be speedily removed from his post. In point of fact it is far beyond Germany's power to blockade the coast of tho United States. The exploits of U53 demonstrated that a submarine cfiuld cross the Atlantic from a .German base and sink N ships in American coastal waters, but taking account of the time spent in the trans-Atlantic passage, it is likely that Germany's whole force of submarines would be inadequate to establish conditions approximating to thoso of a blockade of the American coast. As to the-anti-submarine forces which America would bring to bear it is probable that published lists of destroyers atid other mobile craft disclose them only in part. The American Navy is at present in a state of active development, made necessary by a period of neglect. For some time new construction and various improvements have been in progress, and no doubt due regard has been paid to the possibility of such a situation arising as now exists. Like some other fleets that of the United States is notably deficient in swift, light cruisers and time will be needed to make this defioiency good, but considerable additions have recently been made to its destroyer flotillas, and attention, has been paid also to special craft designed for hunting submarines.