PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2994, 3 February 1917, Page 8

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

For the time being the German submarine campaign has achieved -a much greater prominence than is warranted .by its' material importance. Time'must'-show what measure of power is at the back of Germany's latest threats (embodied in the Note to the United States, of which further particulars aro given. to-day), but it may be held confidently that she will accomplish nothingwith her submarines which will compare in "importance, with, the events impending hi the great land cam--paigns, or indeed with the cumulative effect of the strangling' block'-' ade which is imposed on Germany herself by tho British Navy. In some respects the programme which Germany has mapped out certainly far exceeds her power of execution. The expanse of sea which is • declared a danger zone to the shipping of all nations, extending as it does from the North Sea and the Channel to about 300 miles west of Ireland, north to the Norwegian coastal waters, and south to tho coast of Spain, is far too extensive to be effectively dominated by the maximum force of submarines Germany can reasonably be supposed to possess. This would hold good even -ifthe underwater craft were, free to traverse the whole area unmolested, instead of being threatened ■■ by a thousand dangers as they leave or return to their bases and in their tfruising grounds further- afield.. ; .

At the same time it cannot be. supposed that Germany has invitedthe hostility of 'neutral nations.the United States included; Without having made extensive preparations to in. some degree give effect "to' her threats. It is likely that she :< has prepared at least to the extent- of holding an appreciable number of submarines in reserve which will now be sent out to swell the work of destruction. How far these,and any other preparations Germany lias made will be .counteracted -by the extension and elaboration of the British anti-submarine campaign about which something . has been heard of late is a matter of conjecture. But if'the rate of destruction should rise- for a time it will not follow that the submarines have triumphed or are likely to. In theearly periods of the submarine campaign against merchant shipping, the maximum rate of .destruction for a. period; was .achieved .in each case at such a. cost in submarV ines.as in no-long time brought down the rate 'Co a minimum. In the present period of the campaign new features have entered, both s-s regards methods of submarine attack and -measures of .suppression. But' it is probably' as true 'to-day .'as it.has.cvei\heen. that Germany will not achieve an increased amount of destruction without paying an increased price in submarines. Much, is to bo hoped from the tireless 'vigour with which tho Navy, -as Sir Edward Carson states to-day, is grappling with a problem and with dangers which he docs not minimise'.

So far as Britain and the Allies are concerned, Germany's threat or unlimited piracy opens a new situation only to the extent that it may be supposed to prelude an intensified submarine effort! Where neutral Nations are concerned there is a certain difference. The German threat is above all 'things an attempt to intimidate neutrals into abandoning Allied countries and keeping their ships tied up in 'port. _ A very large number of neutral ships are engaged in conveying cargoes to Allied countries, and the .withdrawal of .these ships would, : of course; be a serious matter. It is impossible o'n tie information as yet received to judge how far neutrals are likely to be influenced by,the-German threat. According to one message Dutch shipowners are apprehensive that ■ theymay be compelled, unless America shows'the way to an effective protest, -to lay up their ships.'-' If is stated also that the sailings"' of" neutral ships, in British ports may be postponed pending instructions. Reports of this kind are to be expected, however, in the present state of-un-certainty and expectancy, and may afford no very definite indication of' niture- developments. Taking • the experience of the submarine campaign as a guide, the attempt to intimidate neutrals seems likely to .fail now as it has failed in tho past. An attempt to intimidate neutrals has been an integral part of the submarine campaign sinco Germany formally inaugurated it,in February, 1915, and up to the present 'the attempt has completely failed.

It is true that Germany's current declaration differs materially in its .wording-from that with -whici she opened' the campaign in 1915.. On that occasion she intimated that her submarine measures would be taken against enemy ships. She now threatens to torpedo all ships wnioh enter the defined zone, without respect to flag or cargo. On paper, this is the difference between respect for-neutral rights and an unrestricted campaign of piracy and murder extending to neutrals as well.as to her enemies. But in practice Ger-' many has from' the first shown hardly more respect for neutral ships than 'for those of the Allies.'' She long ago went far towards creating the conditions which she now threatens to imnosc on neutrals, and the threat is likely on that account to lose much of the force it might otherwise have held. A French official report published yesterday showed that Norway has, lost' a larger proportion of her mercantile fleet than Great Britain under submarine attack, and that Holland and Sweden have lost only less heavily than Britain. This* being so; threatened neutrals will perhaps be inclined to ask what harm Gerrii'any can do them through tho agency di her submarines that she is not' doing already. • ' '

It is pointed out in a London message that if Germany forces the. United States to declare war, one result will be to make the German liners interned in American- ports available as carriers for tho Allies.

Theships in question-constitute the cream of Germany's mercantile fleet, and aggregate about half a million tons. .Made available as suggested, they would replace one-sixth of the Allied and neutral shipping sunk by tho .enemy,submarines in nearly two years of .war. ...

The fewahd brief reportsidealing with the.land war. which, have been received at.time of writing all fall within-the category, of"good news. Brisk raiding is-reported:': in the Western- theatre;. and on-tho other main front the Russian's have again pushed forward' south-west of Riga, and have • captured' a further haul of'prisoners' in' Southern Bu'kowina.