PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2992, 1 February 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is possible, though hardly probable, that Germany may venture upon another attempt to force the issuo in the Western theatre. On the other hand the resumption of the Allied offensive is certainly only a matter of time-, and one message whioh, appears to-day suggests that the remaining duration of the comparative respite at present. enjoyed by tho enemy in the Western thoatre may be brief. Correspondents insist, the message states,' that the preparations of the Fronch for an offensive arc so complete that they arc in a position to attack on a big scale wherever and whenever they choose, thus restoring the clement of surprise which was absent at Loos, the Champagne, and on the Sommc, where tho Germans wore aware of the concentrations of troops. The French have now, it is added, prepared vast stores of ammunition and material, and have laid great lengths of new roads and railways. There is no reason to suppose that this summing-up of tho position is overdrawn in any material particular. The conditions described are precisely those which might be expected to exist in the Western thoatre, taking due account of tho Allies' superiority' in resources, of all kinds .and the time they have now had to develop these resources. It may be takeii for granted also that preparations for offensive operations arc in tho same advanced state on the British front in France and Flanders as on the front held by the- French Army, and that the British, like their Allies, are now in a position to very rapidly mass force at any given point. This facility of concentration is of the utmost importance, and it may bo assumed that the Allies have drawn very freely upon their resources in providing the best possible facilities for tae speedy transport of troops and artillery from point to point.

Summer is, of course, the most I favourable period " for offensive operations, ■ anoT winter conditions impose such serious handicaps on an attacking army that it might seem on some grounds that the Allies' best policy would be to await the return of better weather before embarking upon any really big enterprise. There aro modifying considerations, however. It goes'without saying that a continuing offensive, like the Battle of tho Somme, as.it developed last summer and autumn, is impracticable under winter conditions. In the circumstances that obtain in the Western thcatro an army fighting its way forward moves always across country the face of which has been blown to pieces by'jts own and the enemy's shells. This is bad enough when HJe weather is dry, and in wet weather the obstacles to progress are enormously increased. While every move forward has to be preceded by the rebuilding of roads and light railways and the layiug of water-supply pipes and telephone wires across tho morass which lies immediately behind 'the just-won front, the ground behind the enemy, only a section of which has beon exposed to shell fire, and that only for a time, remains comparatively hard, and tho bulk of his Communications more or less intact. Then, quite apart from difficulties in the way of movement., tho co-operation of tho artillery with tho iufantry in tho actual assault is always liable in winter lo bo interfered with by rain and mist, which make things awkward for tho "spotting" airmen. Indeed the low visibility oE winter handicap!] in scores of ways tho observation and communication work of various sorts which is so neces- ! savy to a successful advance.

These difficulties have on a nurabor of occasions been triumphantly overcome by the- Allies since- the presont' winter campaign opened, but always in attacks of defined scope, swiftly developed and drivcrj home. It is not to bo supposed that they could be continuously overcome, while winter endures, in a eeries of battles, on .a given line of

advance. Probably Lho objections to a continuing offensive on a selected section of front will hold good until the return of better weather. (The hard frost now reported in the Western theatre at most modifies the reigning conditions, and does not transform them. Europe is experiencing; an unusually severe winter, and it was reported tho other day that the frozen stato of theground on the AVest front permitted tho transport of heavy guns, which was held up during the mud period. These conditions, however, will not last very long, nor will they enable the Allies to forthwith open such an offensive as they conducted on the Soinmc front last year, in winch everything depends upon a continuous and uurelenting pressure of attack. Within a> comparatively limited time tho frost will break, "and if the thaw found tho Allies in the full tide of a continuing offensive it might disastrously affect their plans.

This certainly does not mean that the Allies are condemned to inactivity until tho return of good weather restores the conditions most favourable to a full development of their offensive. Tho obstacles and hindrances which meantime oppose a continuing offensive are in plain sight, but the assumption that the Allies are in a position to develop a -vvinW offensive by other methods and with most damaging effect upon the enemy does uot rest on speculation or conjecture, but largely on demonstrated facts. In the Battle of the- Ancre, fought in November, when winter had already set in, the British broke deoply into an exceedingly strong section of the German front—a section which had been vainly attacked in July—and gathered in a great haul of prisoners. The assault was launched in a dense fog, when aerial reconnaissance was impossible, and the British troops advanced through the mud of prolonged rains. The French struck an even more damaging blow at Verdun, in December, wffen in the space of a few days they swept the enemy back to his February line east of the Meuse, and captured over eleven thousand prisoners and 105 guns, apart from trench artillery and machine-guns. It was reported of both battles that the Allied losses wero comparatively light when set against the toll taken of tho enemy in men and material.

Keeping fchcso eveuts iu mind, it seems not at all unlikely that the enemy is imminently threatened with a ropefcitiou in winter battles of the costly defeats which he suffered on the Ancre and at Verdun. The conditions of weather and ground which will enable the Allies to hring their full weight to bear will not appear for a month or two at least. But if they have developed their communications to the- necessary standard of efficioncy, it should be within tho power of tEc Allies to strike a number of heavily damaging blows before the' winter ends, and every such achievement will carry them perceptibly nearer to breaking tho enorny front. Recent reports of raids and local battles in tho Western theatre carry a plain suggestion that tho enemy front is vulnerable, and its defenders liable to be taken by surprise. The pronounced superiority of tho Allied airmen has never been more apparent than in recent days, and this means, amongst other things, that the Germans are of necessity badly informed as to the Allied dispositions, while their own dispositions arc freely observed. Given communications as good as those of tho enemy, or better, the Allies are thus in a position to attack, not only with the advantage conferred by superior resources, but with good prospect of reaping tho advantages of surprise. With matters in this state it may not bo long beforo the Allies give further demonstrations of thoir ability to press on in the West, in spite ot every handicap the winter season can impose.

*** * . Hakrowing accounts are given of tho state of affairs in Russian Poland and of the fate inflicted upon the people before whom, the Germans lately dangled a bogus promise of autonomy. Murder, pillage,, and slave-raiding, as the story is told, have been practised in Poland on a scale hardly excelled even in unhappy Belgium. In tho words of the cablegram, a regime of misery exists in Poland which no civilised people would dare to impose upon the worst of criminals. It- is to be hoped that, the indictment will carry due weight in neutral countries, and with the fatuous minority, in Entente countries who hold that Germany should be provided with an easy way, of escape from the just punishment of her unforgivable crimes. a,* * *

Theke is reason to believe that, with all their terrorism, the Germans have made poor headway in turning the rich resources of Poland to account. The almost total failure "of their recruiting project has been tho subject of recent reports, and their economic aims have also been in sonic degree disappointed. Interesting information on this point was given recently by M. Max Hoschilleb. in the Temps. Germany, ho pointed out, was preparing to increase her production of cannon and munitions for a supreme effort in 1917, but had not enough factories to turn out an adequate number of the largest guns. _ Moreover, she is short of highly-skilled workmen (and indeed of workers in general). Now, in Russian Poland, for some years past the iron and steel industries have only been able to hold their own against thoso of Southern Russia by achieving a high degree of specialisation. When Warsaw was evacuated the Russians, according to an oflicial statement, were able to save the machinery of fourteen foundries, seven engineering works, livo munition works, two thomical factories, two textile factories, two boot and shoe factories, two factories of electrical appliances, and a pencil factory. But elsewhere machinery had to be left to the invaders. Tho Polish ironworks have the great advantage of having their raw material close at hand. The coke required must.be imported, but the iron ore was estimated at the latest International Congress of Geologists at 33,700,000 tons "in sight," representing 10,784,000 tons of iron, with "possible reserves" ot 266,000,000 tons. This is lieniatUo iron suitable for the production of sleel. But the Ini.nds to deal with it are wanting, and Germany assuredly cannot supply thorn. Tho latest available ! statistics of the- Ge-vnun Labour Exchanges show that last August there were only 72 workers available, for every 100 places lo be filled.

Women, M. Hoschillei;. states, have been employed Lo some extent in ironworks, ou(i they are obviously unfit for the heavier jobsj aad tie

refuse of old mines has been bought up at fancy prices, -because- it can be reached by unskilled lajpiir. Germany has brought in thousands of ironworkers from Poland (under such circumstances as arc described in .the cablegram published to-day), "more or less under compulsion"; but, us might have been expected, they have proved unsatisfactory, and a report presented at the meeting of tho north-eastern section of German ironmasters last April states that they have produced "serious and unheard-of injury to the discipline necessary in industry." Tho head ofjhc Laura Hutto steel works, in Silesia, has told the shareholders that the 7500 Polish workers employed there- aru eager to go home. As in Belgium severe measures have been taken to compel the Poles to work at home, but, according to M. HoscHiMiEii, with very httlo effect. One reason for tho proclamation of tho Polish kingdom, ho thinks, was to get the Poles to work willingly in Poland. To-day's news indicates thai, the de-To-day's news indicates that the. design has failed, and that Germany is seeking with brutal savagery to avenge her disappointment.