PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2991, 31 January 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is known that Germany is within measurablo distance of a decline in her resources which will make it impossible for her to continue the war on her present fronts, and to the drain upon har manpower and other military resources there is to be added tho increasing burden of economic distress in all the countries of the Teutonic League about which a good deal lias been heard of late. Undoubtedly the calls already made upon tho military and economic resources of'tho Teutonic League set definite limits to their further efforts in tho war. Yet not many experts arc prepared to thcoriso as boldly upon theso facts as docs , the French writer, Lieut, .Rene Puaux, formorly editor of Lβ Temps, who is quoted in the cablegrams to-day. Lieut. Puaux deolares without reservation that Germany must "lose the game" if she fails to obtain a decision before June. At the present stage of tho war there, is, of course, nothing sensational in predicting the ultimate defeat of Germany and her allies, or oven their possible early defeat. The striking feature of this French forecast is that its author completely discounts tho theory which has been pretty widely entertained that Germany will stake her hopes henceforth, not upon winning, but iipon spinning out the war, with the idea of ae far-as possible minimising the consequences of defeat. Some exponents of this theory have maintained, not very convincingly, that the Germanio Powers will rely in a defensive war upon the strength of their fortified fronts, and that thoy will give ground only under pressure of actual- defeat. It has been so clearly demonstrated in all the main theatres that no front, however strong, is capablo of standing against a well-planned a-saault, backed by adequate force, that the idea of an indefinitely * prolonged defensive by the Teutonic armies on or near their present enormously extended lines may safely bo dismissed.

Potent as these considerations arc, however, it does not follow as a, necessary consequence that Germany is incapable of lengthening out the war. Carried k> its possible limits, a defensive policy would involve a free sacrifice- of invaded territory and a voluntary shortening of front, wherever that is possible, with a view to economising and raaling the most of available resources. Whether such a policy is practicable is a moot question. There is certainly a good deal to suggest the contrary. Germany cannot shorten her Eastern front without exposing Austria to a weight of attack which woiilcl bo likely to speedily exhaust. Her endurance.' As to the West, it is doubtful whether Germany could shorten her line without incurring such losses as, apart from the moral effect of retreat, would more than counterbalance! the benefits gained. Lieut. Puaux* holds that the military and economic oircumstances of the- Central Powers make- it impossible that they should resort to a policy of lengthening out the war. Ho argues that Germany will sfcako everything upon a final effort for victory in the West, not because this is a hopeful policy, but because it is the only one which her circumstances will admit as an alternative to confessing herself defeated. Tims must show whether Lieut. Pimux is •right, but if his initial assumption that Germany's circumstances will not permit her to contemplate a long extension of the war is warranted, the rest follows logically. If Germany is compelled to stake her last hopes upon an offensive blow, it is certainly in the Western theatre that tho blow must be struck. After the experience she gained last year at Verdun, and in tho events that followed, it is difficult to believe that Germany will again attempt to force the issue in the Western theatre. If she does the attempt will afford plain proof that she is in the last stage of desperation, and the result; sTiould ho to hasten the ending of tho war, though not under tho conditions that Germany has striven to create.

Whether .Germany's plans -make for. a dogged defensive, inspired by .the hope of tiring out her enemies^,

or for a las!*, reckless attempt to force the issue on the West fj'ont, ifc need not bo doubted that she is labouring at tho present timo to make the vory most of her remaining resources. It is mentioned today that General von Groner, head of tho lately-established War Bureau, is calling for a maximum effort by tho Gorman munition works, and is mercilessly closing down other industries, sweeping aside all protests with tho declaration that the army must have shells. At his appointment von Ghoner. was invested with a dictator's power over all tho departments that deal with the production and transport of war material, tho Substitution Service, the Food Supply Branch, and the Export and Import Section. It has been said that the creation of the War Bureau was the greatest administrative improvisation ever attempted by any nation in the middle of a great war, and no doubt von Gronek is making free use of his unprecedented powers. But if the Allies do "themselves justice, Germany will honeeforth accomplish nothing in the way of war organisation that wHI not be surpassed by her enemies, and will find herself extended this year in a. fashion not approaohed in the previous course of the war. The Russians are maintaining pressuro upon the enemy in a scries of sharp attacks launched on widely separated sections of the main East front. The latest reported enterprise of the kind took shape- in Central Galicia, and was directed against a section of the enemy f ron t held .by Turkish troops, 'of which there are said to be several divisions in the Eastern theatre. In the region of the Russian attack important passages, both road and railway, through generally marshy country, are m dispute; Evidently, however, the Russians on this occasion were not intent upon a forward move, but upon throwing the enemy into disarray and breaking up his defensive works. In this they appear to have been highly successful. The .Russian capture of a mountain position in Southern Bukowina, which was reported yesterday,- assumes increased importance in light of the statement, made to-day that - the enemy lost over two thousand men in the category of prisoners alone. * * * ♦ At time of writing, the principal event reported in the Western theatro is an extremely successful British raid north-east of Armeniieres. The, German version of the affair is that: "We repulsed three English waves, inflicting Heavy losses, north of Armentierds." The facts, however, are supplied by Sin Douglas Haig, and they are thab the British raiding parties reached the third trench lino in tho enemy, defences. Dugouts were destroyed and many Germans were killed. The German account is evidently an untruthful fabrication.