PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2984, 23 January 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Soldiers of high standing, when they talk of war prospects, do not commit themselves to predictions without feeling that they have very good grounds to go upon. On that account particular interest attaches to tho predictions by General Nivellb and General Brusilotf which appear in the cablegrams today. The statement of tho French Commander-in-Chief arrests attention chiefly by reason of his use of the word "soon." As he is reported, General Nivelle said: "With the assistance of my friend Sik Douglas Haig, I will soon obtain complete victory over our detested enemy." Taken at its face value, this is a heartening answer to those who are inclined to belittle,what tho Allies have thus far accomplished in the war, and to hold that they are practically only at tho beginning of their task of breaking down the military power and resolution of the Central Empires.

General Brusilox'b's summing up of tho situation is even moro remarkable than that of the French Commander-in-Chief. It is reported that, addressing his Staff, he said he had absolute confidence, based on information and conviction, that the enemy would be finally and completely routed in 191 V. There is no reason to doubt the truth and accuracy of tho report. BitusiLon.', who is known to all the world as one of the greatest and most successful of the Russian generals, has on a number of occasions quite frankly expressed his opinions as to the position reached in the war. It will Bβ remembered that whilo popular enthusiasm was stirred by his own successes and thoso of other' Allied generals in 1916, he publicly stated his opinion uSat the war would not be won in 1916, but might bo won by the autumn of 1917. Again, when he was- interviewed in Novembor last by Me. Stanley; Washbdbn, ho said, amongst other things: "The war is. won to-day, though it is merely speculation to estimate how much longer will bo required before, tho enemy are convinced that tho cause for tho sake of whioh they drenched Europe- with blood is irretrievably lost. . . . This summer's operations mark a definite period in their defeat, and that period dates from the time when tho Allies, coordinating their programmes, seized from the enemy his capacity to continue offensives, and to dictate his strategy to us. From the beginning of the operations this summer on the Russian south-western front (from Southern Russia to Bukowma), the enemy has lost control of the situation, and, in spito of his almost superhuman efforts to regain tho initiative, ho has utterly failed to do so. Again and again on , tho south-western front tho enemy's design to- block our plans and throw us back on tho defensive has been ruined by tho valour and fortitude of our heroic troops." *■ ■ * * *

Confident as he was of the outlook a.nd of tho ultimate victory of the Allies when he reviewed the position a little over two months ago, General Beusiloit? was not then prepared to commit himself to a definite prediction, and carefully avoided doing so. If he now feels it safe to indulge in the prediction reported to-day, it must be for the reasonthat tho cvidonce upon which he relies is cogent and impressive. No man is infallible, but General Bkusiloff is emphatically not the kind of man to indulge in vain prophecies. Wo may be quite sure that his prediction represents a considered judgment upon far fuller and more accurate information than is accessible to the world at large. No matter how distinguished tho authority by which it is backed, a prediction must bo taken for what it is worth, but General Bkusilom's. statements not interesting only as a prediction. It may fairly be regarded as a, flash of illumination on the existing conditions' of the belligerents..

• In many respects the Eastern theatre of war, using the term in its widest sense, is to most people a_ region of undetermined possibilities. The Russians inflicted shattering defeats _ upon tho enemy last year, and disposed.of an enormous number of his effectives, but all sorts of questions have been raised as to the condition in which they will resume the struggle this year, and how far their plans have been disarranged by the Austro-Geraan invasion of Rumania. It has all along been possible to return a hopeful answer to those 'questions Russia is rapidly' training men and developing her material resources, and with an ice-free port in touch with her main railway system she is much better placed than formerly to import tho supplementary supplies from her Allies which they are now able to provide in increasing amount. As to Rumania, the enemy is not within sight of a success in that theatre which would lie likely to decisively affect tho current of events on tho main Eastern front. On these general grounds it has been possible to discount suggestions that Russia is still considerably below tho pitch oT effective strength domanded by the war, and that Hindenhukg will be ablo this year lo resume offensive operations; on tho East front whilo cxi haiisling the possibilities of a defensive campaign in the Western theatre. But while a hopeful outlook .was already .warranted, Gen-

ERAL BnuEiLorif's pronouncement is very welcome, as definitely supporting an opinion that tho course of 'the war this year will be a normal development from the events of last year—in other words, that the Central Empires will be called upon to fight for life, not in one theatre only, or in two, but on every part of the investing ring. Other things apart, General Brusiloff's quoted words convey a definite promise that the enemy wall be attacked this year with tremendous power on the East front, as well as in tho Western theatre. They suggest th'at no more than the baro truth is contained in the statement o£ tho London Times, that itussia will join in the 1917 campaign armed and prepared as never before, and supplying vast masses of new troops, with abundant artillery.

Official news from Mesopotamia shows that the British have now gained complete possession of the right bank of the Tigris, as far upstream as Kut-el-Amara, from which place they are now separated only by the breadth of tho river. On the other bank (the north bank as tho river runs in this part of its course) the enemy, as information stands, still holds positions a, dozen miles or more down-river from Kul>elAmara. No rapid progress is being made. Evidently it has not so far been attempted. But tho position of the enemy at Kut-el-Amara and east of that place on the left bank of the Tigris is being made increasingly precarious, and, as matters are going, the Turks may find themselves compelled before long either to introduce heavy reinforcements or retreat. Probably not much more than this is to be hoped of the Mesopotamian campaign until operations are actively resumed in other Turkish theatres,' notably Armenia. But tho existing state of affairs, on account of the wearing strain imposed upon the enemy, affords somo ground for satisfaction. * « e *

At time of writing no new light is thrown upon the progress of the Rumanian campaign, except that the Germans claim that at one point they drove the Russians across the Sereth, and only minor events are reported in the Western theatre. It is noteworthy, however, that a Paris communique mentions that. French artillery caught marching enemy troops south of Mont St. Quentin, the northern defence of Peronnc. This is'a furthor and practically conclusive indication that tho ; late extension of tho British front carriod it no further than the north bank of the Somme, and that the Frcncn still hold the front immediately south of that river. The outlook in Greece rerilaans favourable. A message from Mil. Jeffries (the Daily Mail's correspondent at AThens) indicates that there aro prospects of tho removal of Royalist troops to Peloponnesus, and other measures demanded by tho Allies, being speedily completed. _ The reported action of the Allies in demanding the use of tho Greek mercantilo fleet at a fixed rato of payment may at first glance seem high-handed. But the Allies aro no doubt acting in this,, as in other matters, with tho full approval of tho National Government at Salonika, which now speaks for a great part of tho population of Greece.:

Neutral travellers aro quoted as stating that the Krupp'factories aro working continuously, providing tanks and other novelties and surprises, "which may appear in the .effensives." Tho Germans ■ had hardly got over their first consternation at tho appearance of the tanks before they began to talk about reprisals in kind, but they arc likely to find more profitable work for their war factories than thatof turning out copies of tho British machines. Such an opiuion docs not imply anything to tho detriment of the tanks, which have proved their value. It rests upon tho fact that the Gormans arc not likely to obtain the conditions which would cnablo thorn to make profitable uso of tanks or similar engines of Warfare. It is well known that tho British tanks did their work—and most effective- work it was—in aroas in ' which the power of the enemy's artillery had been broken. The machines aro not built to withstand a well-directed artillery bombardment. Being able to_ defy shrapnel bursts and ma-chine-gun fire, and to travel over or through entanglements and other obstacles, they aro invaluable in tho reduction of trenches and of tho fortified islands which aro frequently left unsubdued when surrounding defences have fallen to assault. The utility of the tank in mastering the redoubts with which the German line is stiffened was strikingly demonstrated' in tho later stages of tho battle of tho Ancrc. j On a section of the front near BeauI court the troops of the Naval Division came into touch with a very formidable redoubt. Tho stronghold and tho circumstances of its capturo were thus described by a correspondent:—

The redoubt just swells above, the earth and wire like tho back of a whale out of the water. It is roofed with. rein, iorced concrete. Below it k capacious' and well-equipped with etores and the mechanism of defence. It has three chief exits, to which ladders lead. Dovetailed into the slope of the kill, its emplacements can rako the whole, face of tho country west ami north, anil nothing could live in its planes of fire. You would have said that no troops could pass it. But after continuous efforts on all sides various groups forced their way past, and irregular lines were won and mado firm some distance beyond. While this monster was still nursed in the bosom of our position, runners took back messages of a "uest" or "pocket" left uncleared. It was much moro than that. It was a fortress unharmed arid not quite invested. But it was not impregnable. Monster was to meet monster.. Towards seven in the evening an inconspicuous carapace, a great sluggish, grunting beetle, was seen by tho German garrison wriggling very slowly forward in arcs and at tangents, carefully avoiding any wounded who lay in ils path. . . .

What this dragon of tho slimo <lid, what flames came from its mouth, what throafe were roared I inusl: not say in precise detail. ' But it flirt and threatened enough. Out of ono of the mouths, of Hie earth and concrete fortress appeared a white cloth wavod on a stick. Not so much as a band or arm was visible, but the flng of surrender waved. Firing ceased, and the beast bellowed no more but allowed its myrmidons to go forward and accept tlio surrender. Presently, crouching there, it watched nearly twenty score nf Germmiß file out, draw 'up in vniilc, and liiareh back across (lie old front lino. Good bei'sU. Tt had done its part. Not what the infantry had dono, but good service.

It is as tho companion of the infantry, and in completing tho work of defeating the onemy, that tho tank has made its name. But pitted against observed and directed artillery fire the falc of tanl<, or of ii macliiiif: many limes slroiißcr than thn lank, wuuld be annihilation. In order to make use of tho tank as a weapon the Germans would presumably, have to treat tho

Allied line by artillery bombardment and infantry attack as their own lino was treated on the Somnu , . And this, there is every reason k> believe, is an achievement which is now well beyond their power.