PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2960, 26 December 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Proof that conditions on the eastern confines of Egypt' have undergone a radical change during the last fow months is contained in the news that El Arish has been reoccupicd by British troops, El Arish is a port on the northern coast of the Sinai Peninsula, about 90 miles cast of the Suez Canal, and an important station on the coast route fvom Syria to the Canal at El Ifo'ntara. It was by the El Arish route that the Turks advanced in their last attack upon the forces defending the Canal, about five 'months ago. On that occasion they suffered in the end a disastrous defeat, but_ only after hard fighting ,in_ the vicinity of Romani, about thirty miles cast of the Canal, and further south. The occupation of El Arish, 60 miles east of the area in. which the Turkish offensive was defeated, is a bold forward step in the' Egyptian campaign, and at an immediate view holds out some promise of action against, the Turks in Syria. A forward move of this extent would hardly have been undertaken merely for the sake of further safeguarding; the Canal, for the Sinai Peninsula is in all parts difficult of passage by an army, and any future offensive by the Turks could bo better met much further west than in tho'vicinity of El Arish. While the occupation .of El Arish is ■ essentially an : offensive movement it must be added that an invasion of Syria from • the Sinai' Peninsula would be opposed by somewhat serious difficulties. Possession of El Arish would make it possible; to utilise sea-transport to some extent in furtherance Of such an enterprise, but beyond the Turco- . Egyptian fronter (from which, El Ansn is about twenty miles distant): the; Turks aro served by railway 1 transport.

Exactly how fay the enemy's railway construction has progressed in Southern Syria is not known, but is believed that a line ,in touch with the main railway' through Syria has been carried as far south as Beersheba, about'3s miles from the Turco-Egyptian frontier. All things considered an invasion of Syria from the south is not for the time being_ a particularly attractive enjfcerpriso. At the. same tima the advanoe to El Arish.is a 1 bold coiinterstifoke to the Turkish attacks upon the Canal defences, and opens a .possibility of further, offensive action. If it/ has no other effect it will probably compel the Turks, as a matter of prudence, to strengthen their southern forces. This in all likelihood is the immediate objeot aimed at, and the reported aerial :attacks upon tho Turkish railway communications in Southern 1 Syria may be regarded as a further contribution to the same end. These attacks were evidently made in considerable force, and the results include • damage to ah important, railway bridge north of Beersheba. The Turks may be sceptical about any early invasion of Syria .being intended, but with the British at El Arish and Britain air squadrons attacking their railway communications they, cannot afford to take the same risks as when the greater part of the Sinai Peninsula was left open to their incursions. If it serves no larger purpose meantime the British advance is calculated to compel ihe Turks to assemble and retain a considerable number of troops in an area they might otherwise have left almost; undefended.

Turkey, is already invaded by. the Russian's in Armenia and by ' the British -in Mesopotamia, and she is now more_ or less dangerously threatened in still another -~quarter. Prospects of isolating Turkey have receded for the time as a result of late events in the south-eastern theatre, but in the most moderate estimate the existing state of affairs must be regarded as likely to discourage the dispatch of any further Turkish troops to tho Balkans or elsewhere in Europe. It is indeed not at all unlikely that Turkey may before long find herself 1 grappling with much more formidable difficult* than at any. previous stage of the war- The Russians hold the greater part of Armenia, and are >vell placed to' further extend their invasion, by an advance upon the Bagdad -railway or : otherwise. The British foros in Mesopotamia is stronger and better organised than it has ever been, and is so much the more formidable. Tho latest reports in hand indicate that Kut-el-Amara and neighbouring positions on the Tigris are likoly aoon to be mastered, and no doubt the offensive, now resumed, will be vigorously developed. With matters in this state any such additions to the Turkish war burden as is imposed by tho British advance to El Arish is likely to be ;acutcly felt. If other demands could be ignored it would no doubt be. within the power of the Turks to mass such a force in Southern Syria as would compel , the British to speedily evacuate El Arish .a.nd fall- back upon their defensive lines further west. But as matters' stand, it is- doubtful whether the Turks can effect such a concentration as would be needed for this purpose'' without sacrificing still more-important interests elsewhere.

• The position in Rumania has altered very little in the period covered by to-day's reports, except'in the Dobrudja. On the front extending across Southern Moldavia the enemy does not appear to have made any further progress. A Pefcrograid report states, indeed, that an offensive has been opened by Russo-Rumanian advanced parties. This is a somewhat ambiguous expression and it would probably be wrong to assume tha,t any big coun-ter-stroko is in immediate contemplation. Allied reports speak simply of a fighting retreat in theh Oobrudja, in the course of which some effective blows have been struck at tho pursuing enemy, but the Germans claim that they have occupied Tulwa, on the Lower Danube. This, if true, means that* the Russo-Ru-manians now hold only a limited foothold in the north-western part of the Dobrudja, and that all 'the rest of that territory is in enemy occupation. Tulcea is on the south bank of the Danube, about half-way, across the Dobrudja at its northern end, and just east of the point at which the river divides into two of the branches in which it reaches the sea. The territory north of Tulcea, and indeed all along the lower course of the' Danube, is. much broken by lakes, so that the defending army has more in its favour than the river obstacle. Unless the Allies contrivo to hold up tho enemy in the lake country at the north-west-ern corner of the Dobrudja he will probably be able to seize'the river port of Galatz as well as Briiila, ; further south, which is already

threatened by bis advance through ■Wallachia. At tho end of last week it was reported that the_ Allies were emptying Braila of grain supplies, but at time of writing there is no news that the place has been evacuated.

At a time when the Germans are threatening to expand their submarine campaign on an uncx&D> pled scale, particular interest attaches to the summary of the British shipping position given by a writer in Fairplay. The extracts cabled, though brief, are informative. They endorse the view that the existing shortage of shipping is duo to the Admiralty's use of snips and not, or at all events not in anything like tho same degree, to the destruction effected Dy the enemy. ,The statement is made that whilo British shipping losses in twenty-seven months of war (to the end of October last) amounted to twelve per cent, of the pre-war number of ocean-going ships, and. eleven per ccnt. of the pro-war tonnage, the greater part of this loss has beon made go6d by new construction. Every ship sunk by the enemy of course accentuates the shortage, but the submarine campaign is a long way from having approached decisive results. In another messago to-day it is mentioned that measures are being taken to increase the output of new ships, both by speeding tip existing construction and'by resorting to a standardisation of hulls and engines which will Simplify and expedite construction. At the same time the anti-submarine campaign is being vigorously prosecuted an"d the arming of merchantmen is being extended. According to a message from Switzerland it is reported, that Germany has decided to retaliate upon, this last measure by sinking such ships without warning and' treating the crews, should they be captured, as pirates. The first part of the threat promises no new departure, since'tho German submarines have from the first very frequently sunk unarmed ships without warning. As to tho threat of murder, nothing can bo taken for granted after the case of Captain Eryatt, but oven tho Germans will perhaps think twice about repeating the crime of which the captain of the Brussels was mado the victim— a crime which Britain is solemnly pledged to avenge.'