PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2954, 14 December 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

As reports stand the Germans appear to be making'little headway in Wallacbia beyond tbo positions to which they recently advanced cast of the longitude of Bucharest. According to a Petrograd telegram they arq actively engaged in preparing lines o£ defonccs and in fortifying their positions. Tho same uressago states that the Rumanian retreat continues with minimum losses, hut it seems likely that this relates rather to the withdrawal of detail forces to a selected lino than to a continuation of the general retreat. The latest, Berlin communigue _ in hand reports tho capture of_ Mizilu, a railway town about 20 miles east of 'the'junction of Ploesci (which was occupied some days ago), and approximately half-way between Ploesci and the Buzeu line, which the Rumanians arc said to have strongly entrenched. By his own showing tho enemy is thus making slow progress in North-eastern Wallachia. The position in tbo region of the Danube is not as clearly defined, and this makes the general outlook a little uncertain,' but in their total effect available reports suggest that the offensive is slackening. Thiß probably calls for one rather , important reservation. Though he may abstain from an attempt to press forward through Moldavia, the enemy is not likely to sottlo down on a defensive lino .without making a determined effort to drive tho Russo-Rumanians out of the Dobrudja, where they, still retain a foothold, and challenge his otherwise complete command of the Danube. Continued occupation of the Dobrudja by the Allies moans ■Miat th'oy are still in position on both sides of the Danube, and retain a base from which they might at a later stage bo able to launch an attack upon tho enemy's communications in Bulgaria. Mackensen is not likely to leave matters in this state if he can help it, so that even if a halt is further north and wost an effort by the enemy to gain command of the Danube to the sea is to be looked for.

The falling-away in the vigour of the Rumanian offensive may bo in part duo : to a withdrawal of enemy forces induced by the developments in the Western theatre which wero noted yesterday as possibly_ indicative of imponding battle in that quarter. But tho alternative explanation is available, and cannot, of course, be ignored, that, having reached a definito point in Rumania, the enemy is now making ready for an attempt to break through the Allied lino in Macedonia, and link up 1 with the Greek Royalists. Detail reports at tho moment show no material change on the Macedonian front. The Irench have gained minor successes in the region of the Vardar, and a violent artillery duel continues north of Monastir.' But tho outlook generally in Greece remains extremely grave. Recent reports of an Entente ultimatum being presented to King Constantine appear to have been either without foundation or to have anticipated the event. The actual position seems to bo that the Allies are for the time at a complete loss for means of dealing effectively with King Constantine, though he is openly pressing forward with preparations for war,_ and at the same time is conducting a campaign of _ wholesale murder against his Venizelist subjects. As one correspondent puts it, a reign of terror exists, surpassing the worst record of Abdul Hamid, but the Allies are still unable to protect their Greek friends. ■ The present helplessness of the Allies is indicated in the fact that the Royalists have been able to transport considerable stores of wheat from Piraeus to Athens. Even in' the ports, _ it would seem, Constantine and his faction aro for tho time supreme. As ovents have shaped no surprise will bo felt, at the news which comes from Switzerland to-day that tho Greek army corps which was "captured" by the Bulgars at Kavala has been undergoing a course of training in Germany, and is now en route to co-operato with tho Ger-man-Bulgar forces against General Sarrail. It is clear enough that unloss Allied reinforcements are pouring into 'Greece the situation must bo expected to go from bad to worse.

According to a Daily Chronicle correspondent at Petrograd, ' the Rumanian oil-wells at Ploesci have been so thoroughly destroyed that it will take at least a year to put them in working order. The news is important if the correspondent is right in his facts, for the Eumanian oil-wells, if they were in working order, would represent one of the most valuable assets gained by the Germans in _their invasion. Tho Ploosci district in the Prahova Valley (now wholly in enemy occupation) is the centre of the Eumanian oil industry, though there are fields elsewhere in Wallachia and in Moldavia. "The production of potroleum in Rumania has decreased materially during the war," nays Engineering, "tho figures for tho three years 1913-15 being 1,890,000 tons, 1,770,000 tons, and 1,670,000 tons. The export trade in tho products which were allowed to be exported has, on tho whole, been done at very, remunerative figures,

but'the export has receded considerably in the matter of quantity. The aggregate export of petroleum and by-products was, for the three years, 1,036,444 tons, 684,024 tons, and 429,OS7 tons. The exports to Germany and Austria-Hungary were—l9l3, Germany, 126,295 tons; AustriaHungary, 77,184 tons. ,1914,. Germany, 99,165 tons; Austria-Hungary, 84,253 tons. 1915, Germany, 154,688 tons; Austria-Hungary, 225,699 tons. To England, France, and Italy no. export whatever has taken place during last year, and 'the export to Russia only amounted to 578 tons. Germany is much interested in the Rumanian industry, in which it has invested much capital and skill during the last twenty years. Of late years, the; Rumanian Government and capitalists have been endeavouring to nationalise this important industry, and of the £4,400,000 of assets shown in the balance'sheet of the Steana Romana at the end of last year, between £2,400,000 and £2,000,000 certainly lay in Rumania, £1,720,000 representing installations, £360,000 oilfields, and the balance means of transport and sto.ck. . p. . Tho trado with Rumania in petroleum products has been of im-portance-'as rogardß lubricating oils, petroleum for lighting and gas oil,, whilst the export of petrol to Gor-. many and Austria has been very limited." .

The question as' to whether the Germans are any longer capable of an advantageous retreat in the Western theatre is one of the most important awaiting determination in thp war.; Such a retreat would give them a new, though limited, lease Of life. Lightening the burden of defence in the Western theatre it would release a considerable number of men and guns, and so enable Hindknburo to develop his Eastern projects on a much more ambitious scale than he has been able to compass during the last few months. Authorities genorally _ arc agreed that, provided the Allies contrive to maintain their offensive pressure during the winter, tie enemy would undertake a shortening of his AVcst<ym line at heavy risk of disaster, but not all of thorn _ hold as deci'ded opinions on the subject as does Mr. Hidaikb Belloo. -Writing in Land and Water, in mid-October, Me. Belloo declared that it was much too late for the enemy to think of shortening his lino in tho Western theatre or his own freo will. "If ho shortens his line now. in the West," Mb. Bei,loc ' remarked, "lie does _it under the worst possible conditions, and under conditions which got more and more: difficult for him with every week that passes. He talks of tho lino which was the old French "dofensivo lino of the north-oast, _ covering Lillo, Maubeugc, Mcziercs (his present headquarters), and Verdun. It would sayc him at the very most only 60,000 yards—say l Bix divisions—and tho retirement would be undertaken under really disastrous conditions, with troops unfit for such an offort and in tho presence of tho enormous pressure to which ho is now subjected, ... A really serious shortening of the line—falling right hack to the Mouse, for instance, abandoning half Belgium and all but an insignificant strip of the occupied district of France—though it would save perhaps double the number of men saved by the Lillc-Vcrdun lino, could not be undertaken. The first operation would almost certainly cost far more men and material than it would savo; tho second would promise such losses as would be disastrous." Time must show how far this estimate _of tho position is sound, but it is a point admitting of no doubt or uncertainty that the continued pressure of the Allied offensive during the winter would tend to eliminate whatever prospects the enemy may have of a reasonably safe and advantageous retreat. It has not yet appeared whether tho increasing stir of minor activities and the fury of intense bombardment lately reported on tho Western front arethe prelude to battle. But it is obvious enough that tho issuea which turn upon the ability or inability of the Allies to persevere in attack during the period of bad weather are of tho first magnitude.

An announcement latoly mado by the Russian Premier that under a treaty concluded .'in 1915 the Allies had agreed that Constantinople, the Bosphorus, and tho Dardanelles should bo ceded to Russia after tho war recalls the fact that Professor Miliukoff (who took a prominont part in securing the removal of M. Sttomer from the office of Premier) m«4e the same revelation to an interviewer in Switzerland as far back as September last. Professor Miliukoff further stated at that time that Russia was to receive a stretch of territory on both sides of the straits which she would be permitted to fortify. She would, howover (he stated), have to observe similar regulations to those adopted by the United States of America with regard to the Panama Canal'. The professor added that merchant ships of all nationalities would be allowed free passage through tho straits, but the passage would be denied to all warships except those of Rumania, Turkey, and Bulgaria.. "This agreement by the Allies," states the Naval and Military* Record, "recalls the ferment which was caused in 1833, when Russia and Turkey made a treaty giving Russia control over the Dardanelles and the right of intervention in Turkoy. Eight years later this treaty was abrogated with tho consent of Russia. A collective guarantee of Turkish independence by the rest of Europe took the place of the treaty of 1833, and the Dardanelles, again under Turkish' control, wero closed to all warships. In subsequent years England exerted herself to support tho tottering power of Turkey, and to retain for acr these straits. Now Turkey's perfidy has brought its inevitable reward in an agreement which will placo Russia as master of the Dardanelles, and give her that exit into warm waters which it has always been the object of Russian policy to obtain."