PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2953, 13 December 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A marked feature of the war in recent days has been the- comparative lull in the main theatres during the later stages of the enemy invasion of Rumania. The last big action fought in the Western theatre was the Battle of the Ancre in which tho British mastered the Beaucourt salient and /struck one of the most effective blows of the Somme offensive. At about the same time the French repelled heavy and determined counter-attacks on the northern part of their offensive front, and drove the Gormans out of St. Pierre Vaast Wood. These events, however, are now more than three weeks old, and in the period in which the enemy has been driving home his invasion of Rumania as near an approach to a lull as war conditions permit has descended upon the Western theatre. Much the same applies .to the main Eastern theatre, though here, of course, Russia's transfer of force to Rumania goes far to explain the fact that there has been no recent development of the offensive on her southern main front, in Southern Russia and Galicia. There is no doubt that Germany has profited by these conditions in prosecuting her offensive against Rumania, and that comparative stagnation in the main theatres has enabled her to concentrate heavier forces in the southeastern theatre than would have been available if fighting on an important scale had continued in France and on the Russian southern front. It is stated to-day, for instance, and there is no partisular reason to doubt the statement, tbat of the total force of at least twenty army corps employed against Rumania fifteen divisions were drawn from the Western theatre.

Fifteen divisions at or near full strength would constitute nearly one-eighth of the total strength of the enemy's AVcstern armies. Reports arc current, however, that the Germans have lately been creating new formations by a sort of water-ing-down process. They are said to have' formed new divisions consiss"ing very'largely of units taken from existing formations, though with a proportion of new levies. In "these circumstances tho twenty army corps said to have been employed against Rumania may easily consist of much less than forty divisions at full strength, and tho fifteen divisions taken from the AVcstern front are very possibly also much below full strength. The point stands, however, that the enemy has apparently drawn heavily upon his strongth in the main theatres to prosecute tho Rumanian offensive. It should follow that whilo winter conditions op poso serious obstacles to offensive action by tho Allies in the main theatres, tho present distribution of the enemy's forces makes him vulnerable to attack on the main fronts if attack should prove to be feasible.

In the East the position is so far complicated by the readjustment which is in progress on the Russian southern and south-eastern fronts, and in other ways, that tho immediate outlook is rather uncertain. By the Russians tho period lying immediately ahead may perhaps bo devoted rather to preparation than to action. But it would probably ho a great mistake to assume that the conditions which have obtained during the last week or two in the Western theatre ace likely to continue unbroken for any length of

time. The Western AlHes arc impelled by weighty motives to press fclio offensive with all_ possible vigour throughout tho winter months, and indications are not wanting (despite the lull of recent weeks) that their policy has been shaped accordingly. A winter campaign no doubt has very great difficulties, but that these difficulties are not insuperable was demonstrated very convincingly in tho Babtlo of. tho Anci'c, and in tho simultaneous operations on tho French section of the front. In these battles, as the Australian official correspondent remarked at. the time, the Somme fighting was carried on under conditions in which the world might have taken it for granted that it was impossible to fight. It is upon the effective action of the Western Allies that the Entente must chiefly rely in imposing limits upon tho onemy's use of his interior communications in furtherance of suoh enterprises as he now has In Rand in the Balkans. Mora than this, an abandonment of the offensive until tho return of better woather might enable the enemy to organise a retreat to a shorter line under far better conditions than ho can hope to command if tho pressure of the offensive is maintained. '

I On all grounds it would be dan[gerous to grant tho enemy longcontinued immunity on the Western front during the winter, and it is "highly _ probable that the November operations, in which the offensive was successfully prosecuted in face of maximum difficulties, will be followed by similar battles at intervals during the months of bad weather. Some recent messages suggest tha.t another important development in the Allied offensive is possibly . in early prospect. A stir of activity and a, considerable amount of local fighting have been noted during the last day or two on various parts of the fighting front, and to-day there is news of a tremendous artillery conflict in the Somme region. In the British official report it is dismissed in a curt reference to "reciprocal bombardment," but a correspondent declares that the artillery duel north of the Ancre is the most violent since' the beginning of the Somme battle. He speaks also of marked success gained by the British gunners against the German heavy batteries in the Somme region and on other sections of the "front. It is not at all unlikely that the guns are once again sounding tho overture to a great battle. The Allies were not able to avert the misfortunes that have overtaken Rumania, but it certainly does not follow that the Germans will be granted a continued stay of operations in the Western theatre, and extended opportunity to transfer force to other theatres.

Great effortsare being made by the enemy to impart mystery and importance to a hastily summoned session of the Reichstag, but if the Germans had any disconcerting surprise to spring thoy would probably be at less pains to create an atmosphere beforehand. The favourite theory is said to be that the pending disclosure relates to the promulgation of'a separate peace with Rumania and the deposition of Kino Ferdinand in favour of a German nominee. It makes distinctly against this theory that crushing imposts are now being levied on the captured Rumanian towns and cities. The Germans will, of course, extort all that they can from Rumania in any case, bus if they were_ indulging in hopes o? dividing the invaded country against itself they, would probably adopt a more conciliatory attitude for the time being. Though there are some pro-Germans in Rumania, an attempt to induce the country to voluntarily don the badge of German servitude may be expected to fill flat. Rumania has given admirable proofs of her fortitude and loyalty, and the motives wheh induced her to enter the war sway not only her rulers, but the mass of the population. Theßumanian peasantry, as well as their leaders, have long looked to the time when they would rcr, deem their brethren from the Magyar yoke, and a people so inspired by worthy national ambition may be trusted not to falter in the trials of war. If the summoning of the R-eichstag and the similar measures that are being taken in other countries_ of the Teutonic group do not particularly relate to Rumania, they possibly herald an intimation that Germany is prepared to talk of peace from the standpoint of a successful belligerent. In that event the Entente Powers have answered in advance in,the measures they are taking to prosecute the war ' with added vigonr and efficiency.

Reports _ from Rumania and Greece disclose no pronounced change in the situation. The line upon which the Rumanians arc "now in contact with their enemies is not clearly indicated, but the Bulgars, by their own account, arc- extending their occupation of the north bank of the Danube in a fashion which threatens - the western Cernavoda bridgehead. Successful Allied attacks are reported on some parts of tho Macedonian front, with heavy indecisive fightincr at one or two vital points. There is more talk of an Enlmte ultimatum to Kino Constantine, but at time of writing no definite information on the subject.