PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2941, 29 November 1916, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

To say tnat the military outlook in Rumania has definitely improved would perhaps be to say more than visible facts warranty Yet, although the enemy invasion is shown to be still extending, there are a number of items of news to-day which tend distinctly to warrant a hopeful estimate' of possibilities. •The conclusion based upon yesterday's rather meagre reports was that the Rumanians were engaged in a planned retreat' from the Alt valley to a' prepared line west of Bucharest. It is now clear that this is the actual state of. affairs. Rumanian and Russian communiques now inJiand state that the Rumanians have made a fighting retreat from the line of tho Alt, and these and other • messages make it evident that tho westward retirement towards the selected line upon which- a stand is contemplated is for the time being continuous. The news as a whole must be read with an eye to these ruling conditions.

The Rumanians are retiring, and as far as information goes, the retirement is being made in good order. There is nothing to show that the retreating army has suffered undue loss in men or material. Definite, though not comprehensive, evidence on this point is furnished in tbe admission of German correspondents that the Rumanians left no war material in Craiova, and removed all guns, including the' heaviest. It is mentioned in a Russian message that the retiring Rumanian detachments are utilising the natural features of the country in resisting the enemy's advance in Western Wallachia. The most important of these ■ natural features are the numerous river valleys which cross the Austro-Ger-man line of march, and all have a certain value as obstacles. The most important claim made by the enemy at time of writing is that he has captured the town of Alexandria. This points to'an important extension of the northward drive from the. Danube into the southern flank of. the Rumanian line. Allied reports in hand do not admit the loss of Alexandria, and speak of fighting south of that place. Possibly the enemy report relates to later events, but in that case tbe Rumanians have presumably covered another stage in their retreat through Wallachia, and are evading the danger of envelopment by the enemy forces advancing from the Danube.-:

An Italian semi-official _ message published to-day emphasises some very important facts relating to the Rumanian campaign—facts which must be kept in mind in order to roach a reasonably accurate appreciation of the position now reached. The main point made' is that the present invasion follows upon previous failures by the enemy in areas where his success would have placed the Rumanians in much more sorious_ difficulties than they are contending against to-day. This is undoubtedly a just statement of the facts. If Falkenhayn had succeeded in his earlier attacks upon the frontier defences of the Buzeu and Prahova valleys, and Mackensen had succeeded in forcing the Danube from the Dobrudja, Rumania would have been cut by_ the invading armies into two approximately equal halves. There would have been no question of safe retreat for the Rumanian forces in Wallachia. They would have been- hopelessly trapped. As itis, instead of cutting across the middle of the crescent-shaped Rumanian territory, the enemy has broken into the western extremity of the country in such circumstances that he has still to deal with the Rumanian army as an organised whole, an<? not with the dismembered fragments to which success in Ills earlier attempts at invasion would have reduced it. It is, of course, true that the Rumanians are falling, back under pressure of attacks which they have as yet failed to stem, but they are doing so under the best conditions which such a state of affairs admits. The enemy has occupied a great deal of territory, and is likely to occupy more, and the situation in Western Wallachia has not lost its critical aspects. But'it is emphatically" true that Rumania's fate is far from being sealed, and unless the assurances that are current in regard to Russian reinforcements are greatly exaggerated, there are excellent prospects of Fal/KEnhayn being stopped a long way short of decisive success. The gloomiest fact of the campaign is that the Rumanian retreat has exposed part of the population of Wallachia to the terrible fate already suffered by the. population of Belgium and Serbia. A dispatch from a reputable, correspondent, which is published to-day, shown that the Germans in Western Wallachia have embarked upon a new career of murder, pillage, and outrage against the hapless peasantry of that territory.

An outspoken acknowledgment by M. Take Jonescu that Russia has rendered all possible assistance to Rumania, and more than Rumania contemplated when sho entered the war, is timely, and should tend to dissipate false impressions based upon the events of the Rumanian campaign—impressions which the enemy has clone his best to tester and magnify. Though he is not a member of the Government, M. Jonescu is probably as well qualified and entitled as any, man to

speak on behalf of his countrymen, and. his declaration that suggestions that Rumania's misfortunes are duo to Russia's default emanate from poisoned German sources will carry weight accordingly. One correspondent to-day forwards, a review of the Rumanian situation, which is said to have been obtained from an authoritative Russian source. It appears to have suffered in transmission at the hands of the censor or otherwise, and is in somo details obscure. This is particularly true to its references' to the loss of the Cernavoda bridgehead, admittedly a disconcerting incident in the campaign. From the Russian review it would appear that the dangers arising from Mackensen's offensive in the Dobrudja were accentuated by a failure to effectually destroy tho Cernavoda bridge, hut though it is indicated that the position in the Dobrudja has now been made secure, somo essential facts relating to tho critical struggle which this region witnessed some time ago are seemingly still withheld. That there was apparently a somewhat serious breakdown of the Rumanian plans in the Dobrudja- gives added significance to M. Jonesou's denial that Russia was to blame for the Dobrudja retreat.

The admission is made in the review that the enemy concentration against Rumania was unexpected, and that it induced a material change in the Russian plan of campaign. It was expected that the Intervention of Rumania would facilitate an extension of the Russian southern offensive in the main theatre, but when the enemy campaign against Rumania took shape, Russia concentrated upon sending assistance to her neighbour and ally, even at the cost of halting in her main offensive. This at first sight may seeni. to show that tho enemy's Rumanian adventure has prospered better than had been supposed, but it would be taking a somewhat limited view to assume that the departure from the original Russian plan was dictated only by tho necessity of rendering aid to a threatened ally. That necessity is no doubt being met, but it is tolerably certain that the redisposition of the Russian southern armies is being carried out with a due regard to the demands of the grand offensive, and that if the transfer of strength is as important as the message quoted indicates, the enemy has little cause to be gratified with the present and prospective outcome of his aggressive stroke against Rumania. If the facts are correctly stated, there will be excellent grounds for believing that Russia is taking measures, not only to assist Rumania, but for an ultimate invasion of Hungary by- way of Rumania. It may prove in the end that Russia has not so much bowed to a necessity as seized an opportunity.. There is no doubt that the enemy calculated upon eliminating Rumania by a swift Wow, and so lightening his responsibilities in the south-eastern theatre, and that he hoped to achieve these ends by a temporary' withdrawal of force from the main theatres. The prospect now appears not only of the defeat of these designs, but of a very heavy increase in the Allied pressure in south-eastern Europe. To this must be added that the respite gained by the enemy on the Russian southern front 13 not likely to endure for any length of time.