PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2938, 25 November 1916, Page 8

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

_ -Though the position in Rumania is undoubtedly critical, actual developments in that theatre are, at the moment of writing,' very largely a. matter of conjecture. It is not even certain that tho Germans are. in possession' of Crajova, the important railway town in Western Wallachia which they claimed a day or two ago to have captured. The probabilities are, however, that Crajova has been lost by the Rumanians and with it a w'ide extent of Western Wallachia, and that they, are now in contact with the invaders on a line extending across Wallachia between tho northern mountains and _tho Danube. It is a matter of waiting until the curtain is lifted. Meantime it should be kept in mincl that the defeat and retirement of tho Rumanians in V\ csfccrn * W&llfichitL ' docs not ncccssarily mean that Von Ealkenhayn is in sight of a decisive success. The dearth of news which makes it for the_ time impossible to gauge the position reached on the Rumanian front also makes it impossible to estimate the extent to which Von Falkenhayn has been weakened by the call for reinforcements in the Southern 1 Balkans. It is not unlikely that he .has been compelled to detach a considerable' body of troops to assist his menaced compatriots and allies in Macedonia. Ihis apart, the Austro-Germans in \\ estern Wallachia are pressing in upon a defence which, except as regards one. factor, should tend to grow stronger as tho area to be defended contracts. It is a distinct advantage to the enemy, to have gauscd. an extended foothold in open country, but on tho other hand the Rumanians are now fighting on a materially shortened Iront, and with shortened lines of communication. Granted a reasonably rapid inflow of Russian remfoicements all may yet be well

inii Petit Pariucu gives an account of the situation which is reassuring if it relates to events of rccent date.' The Germans, according to the Frcnch newspaper, aim at compelling the Rumanians to concentrate all their forces on the fighting fronts, in the hope of-then ociug able to deal a .decisive blow

and advance on Bucharest. It is added that the Rumanians are preventing this by maintaining their reserves intact, even at the cost of heavy sacrifices meantime. The rapid evacuation of a great part oi Western Wa'llachia tends to _ bear out this statement of the position. It is evident, of coursc, that Rumanians were compelled to give ground and shorten their front under pressure of the enemy offensive, bub this does not ncccssarily imply that they are approaching an end of their resources in defence. Colonel Refington, who is not given to undue optimism, is quoted in a message just received as expressing tho opinion that the situation in Rumania is less black than it appears. He sees no reason why the Rumanian western armies should not have executed a safe retreat.

This, no doubt, is' the chief ques-. tion awaiting an answer. As yet wo are permitted to know very little about the circumstances' of the Rumanian retreat, but if it has been made in good order there is much to set against the fact that Von Falkenhayn has passed the mountain barrier and reached the open country. The point made by the Petit Parisien about the Rumanian reserves is particularly important. If it is true that the Rumanians still have adequate strategic reserves at disposal they are better off in their defensive campaign than the enemy is in the war at large. It was lack of strategic reserves that compelled the AustroGcrmans to content themselves with almost purely defensive tactics in the main theatres during the summer and autumn. Rumania,' if the quoted statement about her reserves is correct, is still, in a position to heavily reinforce any given section of her line in an emergency, or to undertake a coun-ter-stroke when tho favourable moment arrives. It has already been suggested that such a stroke is impending in the Dobrudja, but no new. light is thrown upon the matter at time of writing.

It is interesting at this stage to cast an eyo over the general circumstances of that section of the war in which Rumania is playing an arduous part. A point which has at times been-lost sight of since the date of the.. Rumanian intervention is that the-., conquest-of the Balkan corri.dor is an essential-pre-liminary to effective action against Hungary ■ from the south-east; The high hopes based _ upon Rumania's preliminary invasion of Transylvania aro now convincingly shown to have been quite baseless. In wellinformed quarters the Rumanian advance beyond the Carpathians and the Transylvanian Alps was from tho first recognised to bo of small importance." For instance, the military correspondent of the Fortnightly Review, writing'aV a time when the Rumanians were still advancing beyond the passes, remarked that the invasion of Transylvania was of doubtful strategical expediency. "The Rumanians," ihe wrote, "have taken up arms to rescue their fellowcountrymen in Transylvania from the Magyars' yoke, and.their ability to do this depends not upon a local success on One' part of the front, but upon the general success of the Allies' strategy on all the; fronts occupied. .To beat .the Austrians in Transylvania and leave the Germans unbeaten in Bulgaria would only .be a . profitless waste of strength. . Co-ordination.of military effort by the Allied-P-owers collectively is the first condition of final success, and it is not clear-that i an offensivo movement into Bulgaria in co-operation with a simultaneous offensive from Salonika would not be a- speedier way of bringing about' the decision which the Rumanians desire. As long as tho Orient railway is open to Berlin, so long will Mackensen draw on the resources of the Central Powers for the sinews of war. Nish is the first objective of tho Allied Powers. Given possession of that place, and _the fate of Transylvania is automatically decided."

AVe may now assume that the Rumanians from tho outset foresaw a defensive campaign on the Transylvanian frontier, and that they -Were hampered- in any action they may have '• contemplated against Bulgaria by the fact that the Allies in Greece were not readyto move in concert.' This said, there is no_ doubt that the Fortnightly Review writer stated soundly the general facts of the position and the demands it makes upon the Allies. The invasion of Wallachia is chiefly important as it tends' to hamper and impede, an Allied attack on tho enemy communications through the Balkans, and from this standpoint it is very far from having reached decisive, success. From the point of vi<p of the Allies-the first essential_ as matters-stand is a sound defonsive' by the Rumanians in Wallachia. That/assured there would bo open possibilities of a continued development of the Allied operations north and south against Bulgaria, which aro most likely to yield profitable results. •'

%*• ♦ « / Even' if powerful Russian forces are thrown into the scale, the prospects of a concerted Allied offensive being pushed to complete -success during tho winter are probably not bright: The season is late and delays are inevitable. It is a fac,tor also that in any action they may make by way of the Dobrudja the_ Russo-Rumanians will.be rather seriously handicapped by . the destruction of the Cernavoda railway bridge. But it is quite con-' ccivable that operations in the Dobrudja and in Macedonia may be developed 011 a scale which will compel the enemy to concentrate a great part of his available forces in immediate resistance and to slacken in his Wallachian offensive. What news there is from Macedonia is good and indicates that .the enemy is subjected to an increasing strain which he is finding it difficult and costly to meet. Serbs, French, and Italians have all beaten off counter-attacks and advanced to the capture of new positions. If a similar state of affairs can he created in the Dobrudja the effect is bound to be left in Wallachia and the Allies both in north and south will be making, some headway towards their most promising objective. •