PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2936, 23 November 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The announcement that tho Germans have occupied Orajova affords undeniable evidence that the Rumanians are very hard pressed in their defensive campaign. At time of writing there is only a German report stating that Orajova has actually been entered, but the event is foreshadowed in Rumanian and Russian reports, and I itfclo room for doubt exists as to the truth of the enemy statement. Taking its truth for granted it_ must be said that with the occupation of Orajova the aspect of the Rumanian campaign nas undergone a vital, transformation. During the past six weeks the Rumanians have been striving to stem von Falkenhayn's offensive in the mountain country of the Moldavian and Wallachian frontiers. Their defence of tho 'mountain valleys in "Western Wallachia having broken down, they must fall back upon a line extending south-west, right across Rumania, to the Danube. The enemy has mastered about one-third of the total area of Wallachia, but it is of more essential importance that he has gained open access to the Wallachian plain. ' This admittedly improves his prospects of grasping a decisive success unless in tho meantime the Rumanians are heavily reinforced. The Rumanians in Western Wallachia are now facing their enemy in open country. ; Whether in these circumstances they will be able to meet and defeat von* Falkenhayn's offensive is no doubt mainly a question of the arrival of Russian reinforcements, in sufficient numbers and in time to be of service.

Though no announcement on the subject has been made at the moment of writing, it must be assumed that the Rumanian army which had mastered the passages of the Western' Wallachian frontier in the region of the Iron Gate (where Serbia, Rumania, and Hungary meet) and further north, has already retreated into safety. Had it not retreated it would be now to all intents and purposes enveloped. Orajova is about 70 miles south-east of the Iron Gate, and only a little more than thirty miles north of the Danube, and commands the ' only railways approaching the Danube on the western frontier of Wallachia. As entailing the complete evacuation of Western Wallachia the occupation _of Orajova is thus absolutely decisive. _ The actual extent of the Rumanian retreat has riot yet been disclosed, but it may be found necessary to retire considerably east of Orajova, towards the great entrenched camp of Bucharest. As reports stand the enemy is forcing his way south in the Alt Valley, which cuts across Wallachia, about 35 miles east of Orajova. He has also penetrated the frontier still further cast towards the railhead town of Campulung, but has not yet reached that place. At the Predeal Pass, almost due north of Bucharest, bo is still, as stands, firmly' held in the near neighbourhood of the frontier.

Bad as the position obviously is in some respects, it is not by any means established that the possian effective defensive campaign in Rumania are exhausted or are near exhaustion. The military correspondent of the Daily Telegraph was quoted yesterday as eontending that the moment for Rumania's intervention was chosen with a compjete disregard for the strategic needs'of the situation, and that the course events have taken points to a failure on the part of the Entente General Staffs or to a want of candour between the Allied Cabinets. These sweeping strictures manifestly pass over and ignore a number of very important considerations. In the first place it is far from certain that the present invasion of Rumania' would have been averted by a decision on the part of that country to persevere for a time in a policy of neutrality. It has to be remembered that Rumania, in the days before she entered the war, was subjected to very powerful pressure by the Central Powers, and very possibly her only alternative to intervention was submission to her present enemies. For the rest, it would be a distinctly novel suggestion that the feneral position of the Entente has een in any way prejudiced by the accession of an army of upwards of half a million men, and it will be time enough to assert that Rumania has been sacrificed by her Allies when the enemy offensive has been carried well beyond its present point of success. If justice is done to the latest German somi-official review of the war in the cabled summary which appears to-day it is a singularly pa4e and unconvincing effort of ; its t kind. It repeats • the assertion,

often made and as often falsified, that the Allied offensive on the Sommo has failed, and that the "Franco-British armies are unlikely to persist _ much longer in their efforts. Finally an attempt is made to concentrate attention on Rumania, and it is suggested that General Saueail's victory in Macedonia is "relatively unimportant." The authors of this precious document ignore the shattering defeats lately inflicted upon the enemy arfluies on the Somme and on the CarsOj and their complete failure to retrieve the disasters of the summer months in Southern Russia and "Galicia; and not a word is said about Verdun or the Trentino. _ As any German survey of the position must, if it is to avoid the character of a confession, the review studiously ignores the principal events of the period with which it affects_ to deal. Its one really interesting feature is the emphasis laid upon Ihe expectation of a respite in the Western theatre during the winter. Recent events have provided excellent reasons for believing that the respite will not be granted.