PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2927, 13 November 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The war news to-day includes a description by a Morning Post correspondent of the existing situation on the Somrno front which will be read by many' people as a comprehensive review , of the position reached, and of .conditions generally, in the area which has witnessed the greatest and most powerful effort put forth bv the Allies since the war began. The dispatch, however, does not seem to be acceptod in this character without some rather important reservations. It avowedly a particular message to optimists who predict an imminent German collapse, and it is a question whether the correspondent, in his anxiety to check undue optimism, has not rather belittled what the Allies have achieved. One patent fact is that much of what he says about tho scope and progress of the German activities in constructing new defences must ■be based on hearsay. Even the Allied high command can know little definitely about _ what speed the enemy is making in the construction of new dug-outs. Such statements, again, as that the Germans arc undismayed by four months' defeats and are labouring calmly and methodically 'to strengthen their grip on France can only bo set down as pure assumptions, and they are in conflict with a great deal of evidence which has been furnished, officially and otherwise, of the injury done to the enemy's moral by the defeats he has suffered since July 1.

Details apart, there arc sound reasons for casting a doubtful eye upon a picture of the Somme bat-tie-ground in its present aspect which gives chief prominence to the enterprise with which the Germans are setting themselves to organise a defensive line only inferior to that from which they have been dislodged. Whatever the Germans may be doing in this direction there is much besides which manifestly musll bo taken into consideration in any attempt to estimate the position today. Since July 1. when the offensive opened, the enemy has suffered such defeats that his defence of about twenty miles of front now rests largely upon improvised works which are certainly, very greatly inferior to the fortified lines out of which ho has been driven in successive assaults. His defences have been deeply penetrated over a considerably greater distance. Besides losing field fortifications on which they had expended an _ enornious amount of labour and military capital, the Germans have lost an important advantage of position. The ridge below Bapautne which lay well behind their _ line wherj the offensive opened is the highest ground for many miles, and its possession gave advantages of observation which compensated in some degree that inferiority in tho air which they have tried in vain to remedy. Account must bo taken also of the evidence supplied that something liko half the total num-

ber of German divisions on the Western front have been successively thrown into tho Somme battle and withdrawn, a large proportion of them shattered and exhausted.

The magnitude of the Allied achievements on the Somme has, in fact, been so great that undue hopes, may conceivably be founded upon them in regard to the duration of the war. It is, of coursc, necessary to take nothing for granted in estimating the enemy's remaining powers of resistance. But. without forgetting the respect that is due to the opinion and statements of a man on the spot, it is possible to say with a great deal of confidence that the position on tho Somme is more favourable to Iho Allies and less favourable to the enemy than the dispatch of the Morning Post correspondent would suggest. It is still the central and dominating fact of the war that the power of the Allies is expanding, while the enemy is at the utmost no stronger now, and never will be stronger, than he was at a much earlier stage of the war. Surveying the situation on tho Somme front in lijht of this fact, it can hardly be considered as bettor than desperate from the German point of view. One very material fact which should n<it be omitted in a general survey is that by attempting to hold their present line in the Western theatre instead of retreating to a shorter line, the Germans are undoubtedly hastening the hour of their ultimate defeat, whatever the time may be which the Allies need to compass that defeat. *#, * »

A high authority, General Brusiloff, is quoted in a current message as saying: "The war is won to-day, though it is a matter of speculation how much longer will be required to convince tho enemy that his cause is irretrievably lost." Like Viscount French, who is also quoted on the subject to-day, General carefully avoids Csmmit-

ting himself to any statement that the war may be expected to end by a stated date. In the statement above quoted, he relies apparently upon two very potent factors, the .rising power of the Allies as compared with the enemy, and tho fact that the latter has. utterly failed, in spite of superhuman efforts, to regain the initiative. It is interesting to recall that in the course of an interview granted about two months ago to M. Ludovio Naudeau, General Brusiloff said: "I am no prophet. The future is in the hands of God. But if I had absolutely to make a hypothesis, I should be inclined to think that the month of August, 1917, might see tho end of Our memorable work." Then, as now, General Brusiloff avoided the role of- a prophet, but with this reservation, his hypothesis naturally'carries some weight.

Aerial operations take a prominent place in the events in the Western theatre reported to-day. In particular, one of the biggest aerial

battles on record has been fought, a British squadron of thirty machines defeating and dispersing a larger enemy squadron. Reports .in hand do not clearly show how enemy and Allied losses of machines in the recent fighting compare. The balance seems to turn against the enemy, but even if it were the other way about full weight must be given to the fact that German flights over the Allied lines arc comparatively rare, whereas the French and British airmen are continually flying over the enemy lines. If the Allies at times have lost more aeroplanes

n a given period than the enem;

it is because they have used more and used them much more freely and

to infinitely better cffect, both in attacking depots and communications and in tho still more important services of reconnoitring and of observing for the artillery. In the

latest operations the Allies' aeroplanes have been raiding far afiolcl Bomo of them beyond the Rhino, and it is possible that even in these circumstances the number lost is lees than the number simultaneously lost by the enemy. •

"** * » The latest available reports dealing with the Rumanian campaign tend to confirm the optimistic view of tho situation taken by the Daihj Telegraph correspondent at Milan. In the Buzeu Valley, in Eastern Wallackia, the Rumanians have been forced to retreat three miles, but this is overshadowed by the fact that full-powered enemy attacks south of the Predeal Pass have been repelled with heavy loss. It is now well established that von Falken-

hayn is developing his main attack on the line of the railway whichruns south from the Predeal Pass to Bucharest, and it is so much the more important that the Rumanians are maintaining a sound and unbroken defence in the vicinity of Azugu, about three miles south of the frontier at_ the Predeal Pass. Indeed, a Russian official report states that in the direction of the Predeal Pass the Rumanians are enveloping the enemy left flank. They have definitely gained ground at two points considerably to the west of the Predeal. ■ One of several messages dfealing with events in the Dobrudja is rather obscure. It states that a Russian communique announces that Russian cavalry and infantry are two miles west of Czrunuanoda, and are fighting ■ for the famous bridges. This latter reference suggests that the name quoted is a garbled version of Cernavoda, but in that case tho statement about I Russian cavalry and infantry fighting two miles west of Cernavoda, which would be in the_ marshlands on the Rumanian side of the Danube, carries no meaning that can be accepted. If "west' is a mistake for ''east," the message carries very important news, but there is nothing at time of writing to show definitely that the Russo-R.umanians _ have advanced as far south in the Dobrudja as Cernavoda. TKey were last located a good many miles further north, and though they arc advancing, other reports than the one quoted suggest that their rate of advance is slow.

Heavy fighting is reported on the Eastern front, and the Russians have at more than one point lost a little ground, but the enemy is apparently labouring in his reports to magnify tho importance of whatever successes he achieved. This certainly seems to bo an engagement ou the Naraiu'vka, in Galicia. north of Halicz. The Germans state that they stormed the Russian main position in this area, while the Russian version is that the positions of ono regiment were driven in, but were restored on the same evening. Snowl?ai,ls and heavy rains are hampering the Italians on their

main front, so that the battle afc the end of last week, in which 3500 Austrians were taken prisoner, was apparently a sudden blow struck in a brief interval of bettor weather. It is on that account an all the more eloquent indication of the extent to which the Austrian defence on the Carso has been weakened. It was presumably in'the same battle that the Italians made the advance of 900 yards, on tho Northern Carso, which is reported to-day.