PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2918, 2 November 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Events in Bumania hold chicf place in the news received at time of writing,_ and they arc of a nature to confirm impressions recently formed that von Falkenhayn's offensive is definitely failing, and that the ltumanians, thanks in part to the aid rendered by their allies, are rapidly recovering tlio upper hand in their frontier campaign. There is no need to exaggerate the importance of tho victory won by the Rumanians at the Szurduk Pass, in Western Wallachia. It is described as brilliant, and the enemy is said to have been repulsed to the frontier with tho loss of many guns and prisoners. This in itsolf is splen-

did news, but it must bo read with the fact in mind that an almost stationary struggle is proceeding in some oven more important sections of the frontier- zone. The Austro-Ger-inans hold tho Predeal Pass, they have made some headway beyond the forzburg Pass towards the railhead town of Gampulung, and still furI thcr west they are fighting south of I the main range boyond tho Rotherthurm Pass. It is in the western marches of Wallachia that tEcy have been heavily defeated, and the issncs at stake here, though important, are not as vitally important as in the vicinity of the principal railway' passes. However, tho situation is good,_ and promises well. The enemy is making no hoadway in his offensive. He is being-firmly held in check at vital points, and the local successes thus far gained by the Rumanians, though tlioy may not be of decisive importance, are convincing indications of rising poweri Over an increasing area of Wallachia, the enemy is now meeting the fate ho has already suffered further north, in Moldavia, of being defeated and thrown back to the frontier or beyond it. * * * *

Whether the Rumanians will be able to continue on these lines and presently win back the main passes north and north-west of Bucharest must depend largely on the reinforcements available on either side. In this matter prospects look decidedly unfavourable to the enTho events of the campaign are in themselves a confirmation of reports that tho Rumanians have received and are receiving substantial aid from Russia. On the other hand, the enemy has evidently lost the margin of superiority which enabled him to break througH the Wallachian frontier, and if he hopes to persevere in the offensive must bring strong reinforcements to bear and that Bpeedily. It will hardly be suggested that the Austro-Gor-mans would help their cause by holding their present line inside the Rumanian passes during a winter campaign. At a reasonable view their alternatives are another wellbacked bid for victory, or retirement. Thoy have stated' heavily upon the hope of crushing Rumania, but if thoy staked too heavily an enterprise already risky would become suicidal. Falkenhayn is said to have asked for heavy reinforcements, ■ and the report is probably true. But it should be no easy matter to provide these reinforcements. Tho Germans have had one sharp lesson at Verdun of the unwisdom of weakening their' main fronts in order to take the offensive in a secondary theatre, and oven if they look to the advancing season to give them a partial respite in the main theatres the same factor militates against a successful offensive in Rumania. On all visible facts the outlook in Rumania is bright. While the enemy is undoubtedly confronted already by a serious problem in regard to finding the force he needs, the rising power of tlie Allied forces in Rumania is steadily increasing the dimensions of tho problem and making it more difficult of solution. The immediate question is not so much whether the enemy is likely to reach Pitcsci, in the interior of 'Rumania (named by Dr. Dillon as Falkenhayn's immediate goal), but whether the Rnsso-Rumamans are likely to presently recover the frontier passes which for the time being they have lost.

Most of the reports speaking of the arrival of Russian reinforcements in Rumania have been unoffibut they receive official confirmation from _ the Russian communiques dealing with events in Rumania. For instance, it will be noticed that a Russian communique to-day deals with events south of the Predeal Pass, in tho vicinity of Campulung and west of the River Alt, and deals with these areas separately from territory further west in which a purely Rumanian force is apparently operating. An inference is thus justified that Russian troops are now operating, either separately or conjointly, with Rumanians on the most important sections of the Wallachian front, which has becorao the main front in the Rumanian campaign.

A report from Odessa states that Kussians, Serbians, and Bumanians have assumed the offensive in the Dobrudja This in any case awaits confirmation, but if it implied an offensive on a big scale aiming at the reconquest of the Dobrudja, it would bo rather surprising hews. If the report is accurate, however, it probably means that tho Allies have assumed the offensive with a more limited object immediately in view. As matters stand they have no particular incentive to attempt tho early reconquest of tho Dobrudja as a whole. They arc well placed on the Danube line, and the destruction of tho Cernavoda bridge, which presumably will not be readily repaired, means that the Dobrudja will now .offer no particular advantages as compared with other areas when the tinio comcs to open a general offensive on tho southern xront._ But though tho enemy has occupied tho greater part of the JJoDnidja, he has not yet interrupted tho navigation of the Danube from the sea, and it seems likely that the reported action of tho Allies is an attempt to block the further extension of his invasion which' would give him command of tho lower reaches of the Danube.

Accounts given, to-clav of the state of affairs in Great Britain as regards the enrolment of men in the Army suggest that it is rather out of keeping with the high efficiency which is now the rule in Britain's conduct of tho war.' Abuses are alleged in respect of which the exemption tribunals created under the Military Service Act and Government Departments are alike saddled with responsibility. Even jf the allegations are discounted, it must appear that there is ample scope for reform, but probably the worst'feature of the position is that faulty administration of tho machinery of exemption has resulted 111 considerable departures from what should have been the normal order of recruiting. If any difficulty had been experienced in obtaining meii in adequate numbers more would presumably have been heard on the subject before now.

A STATEMENT by LoitD DERBY shows that considerable progress has now been made towards rectifying and remedying the serious shortcomings ip transport and medical prganisation and otherwise which

did so much to mar and defeat the moro extended developments of the Mesopotamian campaign. The number of men nassed into hospital weekly is still large, but it has been cut down to less than half of what it was formerly, and the number. of deaths in a period haH fallen by nearly two-thirds. At tho same.

•tirao much has been don© in other ways towards establishing the organisation of the campaign on a sound footing. These things hold out a certain prospect of active developments, moro especially, as wintor in Mesopotamia is tno season whiclr best lends itsolf to campaigning. It is likoly, however, ;hafc any material extension of the ii'esenfc invasion of Mesopotamia is ontingent upon events in othor heatres, notably the Balkans.

Little has been said in Russian official reports for some time past about evonts in tbo main Eastern, theatre, but silenco is broken today with the brief announcement that enemy attacks were repulsed south of Brzezany, a railway town in middle Galicia, south-east of Larabcrg. _ There is no sign yet of the offensive recently predicted. In the Western theatre only normal events are reported at time of writing-.

Answering questions in Parliament, Mb. Balfour lias supplied some further details in regard to the recent Channel fight. It now appears that the British lost six small patrol craft, Just about half as many as the Germans claimed to have sunk, but while there is evidence that two German destroyers were blown up, hopes are entertained of salving the British destroyer Nubian, which sank, but apparently in shallow water. It remains the essential feature of the affair that the Germans failed completely. in their attempt to interrupt the vital cross-Channel service, and this although the attempt was made in the most favourable circumstances, from the point of view of the raiders, which they can hope at any time to command.

The prospect once again appears, as it has appeared so often without becoming more than a prospect, that Germany and the United States ,may come to a serious issue over the former country's conduct of its submarine campaign against merchantmen. On available evidence the ease of the Marina represents' precisely such an offence on Germany's part as jbhe United States threatened in May last to visit with a severance of diplomatic relations. The same applies to the case of tho Rowanmore, which for some reason has not yet come so much into prominence as that of the Marina. It has been suggested in America that the Marina was possibly a British transport, and therefore not entitled to the measure of immunity which ex-1 tends to a merchant ship, but to-1 day_ this' suggestion is explicitly denied in a statement attributed to the owners of., the ship. It is a factor in the situation that there were Americans aboard both tho Marina and the Rowanmore, though not as passengers. Taking the .facts as they are stated, the case for drastic action by America would seem to be at all points perfect, but experience has shown that on occasions of this kind it is neccssary to make liberal allowance for President Wilson's ingenuity in avoiding action on these lines.