PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2916, 31 October 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The position in Rumania continues to improve, and this, in the circumstances, is to say that the whole war outlook continues to improve. Rumania is a secondary theatre, but it is the only one in which tho enemy for a long time past has been able to achieve a measure of local success worth speaking about. It is prudent, of course, to take nothing for granted, but there are pretty definite indi-

cations that the tide is now turning against the enemy in Rumania, and unless these indications are deceptive, even his immediate outlook will presently be at all points dark and unrelieved. A reasonably op-

timistic estimate of prospects does not rest only upon assurances, repeated to-day, that Russia will render ample aid to Rumania, nor upon the statements of well-inform-ed authorities like _M. Marcel Hutin. Reports dealing with actual campaign events on the Rumanian fronts disclose distinct and marked improvement." . .'.. * * « *

On the Transylvanian front the Rumanians, probably as a result of being substantially reinforced, seem to have gained, command of the situation. The Austro-Germans hold several of the most important passes on tho Wallachian frontier, including the Predeal Pass, but generally speaking they are now either held up in the mountain defiles, a long way short of the points at which tney would be enabled to deploy in comparatively open country, or are being driven back towards the frontier. The only exception to tEte state of affairs to be noted at time of writing is that the Germans claim to have captured Ayuga, a station on tho railway which runs south to Bucharest, standing about three miles south of the frontier at the Predeal Pass. Even if the report is true it will be seen that tne Rumanians > have given ground to a very limited extent at this vital point, and that the onemy has made much! less progress in his invasion than in somo parts of the frontier region further west. When the full story of the oampaign is written it will probably be found that its general tato turned in no email degree upon the Rumanian resistance in the region of the Predeal Pass. Tho present' aspect of affairs is that whilo an almost stationary conflict continues in this locality, and also at Dragoslavele, twenty miles further west, where the onemy -has penetrated ten or a dozen/ miles south of the T-orzburg Pass, theßumaniansare at several other points at-; tacking with vigour and recovering lost ground. Their late achievements in throwing the 'enemy bacK upon the Moldavian frontier are now being repeated in Walla-chia. Southland somewhat east of Rotherthurm Pass they have swept the enemy back six miles, and they are following up their successful coun-ter-stroke in the Jiul Valley, south of. the Vulan Pass, in Western Wallachia, which was reported yesterday. In the latter region the Austro-Germans are said to be retiring into the mountains. An Austrian communique lays claim to progress at a number of points, notably the capture of heights dominating Orsova, but it seems in most particulars to be definitely contradicted by Russian and Rumanian •reports. The outlook as a whole, in a campaign which lately wore so critical an aspect, has unmistakably brightened. It is not suggested that the' enemy has been brought everywhere to a dead stop, but the dominating features of the situation are that the Rumanians are firmly holding vital points, and have made considerable headway in their coun-ter-offensive.

With remarkably little to boast about in other sections of the Rumanian campaign, the enemy , is making the most of his successful invasion of tho Dobr.udja. The Bulgarians to-day parade the fact that their advanced detachments have reached a line, extending from the Danube to the Black Sea, which brings them to within about twentyfive miles of the section of the great river which turns east to the coast. As yet these lower reaches of the Danube are open to ships passing between Eussia and Rumania, and it is a question still to be decided whether the enemy will succeed in interrupting this line of communication. Prospects of maintaining it are probably not rosy, but it is not vital. • The Russians and Rumanians are in touch by several lines of railway. The Bulgarians, it will be noticed, claim that they have occupied an ' island in the Danube east of Silistria. This deserves attention, for it may mean that Mackensen contemplates an attempt to force tho passage of the river at this point. The presence of an island to some extent simplifies the problem involved, because the water way to be bridged is narrower, but evon so the problem is formidable. It was near Silistria that the Rumanians crossed the Danube in the second Balkan war, but .they made tho crossing unopposed, whereas the enemy in this case would have to cope with a well-ordered defence. His task would be made tho more difficult by the fact that the banks of the Danube in this region are fringed by wide belts of marshland. In addition • the Rumanians have the advantage of a railway running to f!ho rivor bank at the point threatened, the line which terminates at Calarasi, almost directly opposite Silistria.

What seems to be from n!I points of view a reasonable survey and estimate of the position in the Dobrudja is transmitted in a London message which ia aaid to-embody authoritative command No rea-..

son appears for dissenting from the view that the Danubo is practically impassable, and that _ the Rumanians can safely hold it while detaching portion of their Dobrudja army to reinforce tho Transylvanian front, or operate olsewhere. The last-mentioned alternative should not be ignored. The Danube is practically impassable where it is defended by an adequate force, but a crossing would prevent no difficulty if this condition were not satisfied. The possibility of the Russo-Rumanians sooner or later crossing the Danube into Western Bulgaria, to attack the enemy's communications, has by no means disappeared. Perhaps no enterprise of the End is in immediate prospect, but the extent to which the enemy is involved in bis rather barrvn conquests of the Dobrudja does_ not improve his prospects of making himself secure against an attacks on these lines. This apart, the invasion of the Dobrudja has not up to the present sensibly, improved tho enemy's position or impaired that of tbe Rumanians. The latter have, of course, suffered a heavy economic loss in the port of Oonstanza and the great Cernavoda Bridge, which has Deen blown up, but the position otherwise gives little ground for dissatisfaction. Even if the enemy completes his occupation of the Dobrudja and interrupts the navigation of the Danube, the river remains .as a strong defensive line, covering .the Rumanian frontier and the southern frontier of the Russian province of _ Bessarabia. As is remarked in the message mentioned, too much emphasis has been • laid upon the effect of .tho occupation of the Dobrudja in interfering with communications between Russia and Rumania. The countries are linked by two railways, one from Moscow and one from Odessa, which would bo in no way affected by tho complete occupation of the Dobrudja. Connection by a branch railway, covering part of the distance between the Rumanian frontier and Odessa, might be affected, but this line would at worst facilitate the defence of the Danube line. It may be added that the enemy can interrupt the navigation of the Danube only at the cost of occupying a long, narrow cul-de-sac which may ultimately prove to bo a trap. And the enemy would be able to improve upon this generally unfavourable position only if he succeeded in forcing the Danube, a, much more formidable task than the invasion of the Dobrudja.

: The near approach of winter is a factor to bo reckoned with in eurvoying the- outlook in the various theatres of war, but the extent to which it will influence events is still largely a matter of conjecture. Both in the Eastern and Western theatres great battles have been fought in the dead of winter, and at this stage of tho war the enemy certainly cannot count upon seasonal conditions giving him any material respite. A certain slowing down and frequent delays on account of bad weather a.ro inevitable, but extended scope will remain, for the heavy and continuous general pressuro upon which tho Allies mainly rely. The possibility that the onemy may fight through the winter upon the same general front as ho now occupies in tho. Western theatre, with only local and limited losses of ground, is not one which impairs the Allied prospects. One theatre in which very important issues are open in connection with the near approach of winter is the Balkans., It is still impossible tosay that the situation'in Greece, as it is disclosed, and the position on the Macedonian front, hold out any definite promise of early action, on a b'ig scale. The Allies are much more than holding their own in and record further successes at different points, hut the general offensive has yet-to be launched. It remains possible, however, that they may emulate .and surpass tho achievement of the onemy last year, whoh an offensive, opened at the end of October, was carried by the dead of winter to the point of the complete occupation of Serbia. -

No big event is reported at time of writing in the Western theatre, but the British continue to forge ahead on tho Somme front in spite of adverse weather conditions. The French meantime are maintaining a firm hold upon their recent conquests at Verdun.