PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2913, 27 October 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Much of the news to-day bears positive witness to tho all-round predominance of the Allies in the war. Fuller reports emphasise the importance of tho French offensive at Verdun, in its immediate effect and in its definite indication that the enemy has effected his concentration in Rumania at the cost of seriously weakening his position in the main theatres. At the same lime, such accounts aro given of the struggle on the Russian southern front as suggest that there also, though the Russians have not of late mado m'uch forward progress, the enemy is' in unenviable plight. In the conciltiions described it will pay the Russians handsomely to fight almost stationary battles, for the enemy is said to bo pouring out his strength fruitlessly, and at a rate which will make a Russian advance at the appointed hour very much easier and more effective than it would bo at tho present timo. At the moment there is no news from the Italian main theatre, but a continuance of the conditions that have become normal_ in that quarter means that things are going anything but well with tho enemy, and this presumably is implied in the absence of detail news. On the Macedonian _ front the position o£ tho Allies is improving, though slowly, and Monastir, as reports go, is in evident jeopardy. "Rumania still supplies the exception to the common rul© of the prosperous development of tho Allies' concerted campaign. _ Accordingi to, one report, Russia is pouring soldiers into Rumania, but events m this theatre have not yet taken the favourable turn that is hoped for. On tho Transylvanian front the position is on the whole a little better than it was reported to be yesterday. The Germans report that they have forced another pass, but their claim of yesterday, that they had routed the Rumanians at tho southern exit of one of the principal railway passes, is 'not substantiated in available reports. In the Dobrudja the situation is altered for the worse by tho fall of Cernavoda. Thin means nothing' less than that tho Rumanians have lost their.last effective foothold east of the Danube in tho bolt of territory betweeu tho river and. the Black .Sea.

Retiring from Oornavoda, the Rumanians have presumably had to destroy the great railway bridge, twelve and a half miles long with .its viaduct approaches, which at this point crosses the Danube and tho/marshlands along its banks. Such a sacrifice in itself implies that tho Rumanians are hard pressed. Maintaining the Cernavoda bridgehead, they would probably, have been able to stem the further progress of Mackensen's offensive. Now the enemy commander is in a fair way to gain full command of tho Dobrudja territory, and the Rumanian defensive stand in the south-east will bo made throughout On the Danube line. At an immediate view one of the worst features of the situation is that the enemy may now be able to close the Danube to the passage of sea-going ships. The loss of tho port of Constanza, as was pointed out yestorday, did not cut off Rumania from effective touch with Russia by sea. But this result will be achieved if the enemy succeeds in penetrating to the northern extremity of the Dobrudja—and it will now bo difficult matter to prevent him doing so —for he will then interrupt the river navigation. It is a point to be borne in mind at the present juncture that the advantages thus far gained by Mackensen, though in themselves important, are essentially local, and definitely limited. How far the general situation is, or will be, affected by _ his success in driving the Rumanians across the Danube has yet to appear.

Even_ in this south-eastern campaign, in which the Rumanians and whatever Russian troops-are fighting in their company have of late suffered one defeat after another, the position does not by any means lack redeeming features. The enemy has gained, or has prospect of gaining, the advantages which have been outlined, but in order to strike a vital blow at Rumania, Mackensen must pat.3 the Danube and even "a complete occupation of the Dobrudja will not materially assist him to that end. The Dobrudja is a cul-de-sac, bounded on west and north by the Danube. To some extent its occupation will enable Mackensen to safeguard himself against an attack in flank while he concentrates upon an attempt to foroe the Danube, if that is the object he has in view. But this advantage is gained at the cost of a long extension of front and the occupation of a cul-de-sac in wßioh the invading troops will stand in serious danger of envelopment if the Rumanians are enabled, as they conceivably may be before long, to assume the offensive and themselves repass the Danube. His advance east and north has not brought Mackensen' into touch with better crossingplaces than he had access to at an earlier stage of the campaign. All along its lower reaches the Danube is bordered by marshes, and at many points by lagoons, which must hinder a crossing. In addition, facilities for transport through the Dobrudja arc poor. If Mackensen is bent upon reaching the Rumanian sido of the river. the attempt will probably bo. made at some such point as Rustch'uk, a Bulgarian rail-head, or Turtakai, where the Danube runß nearest to the Rumanian capital, and much less difficult transport problems would have to be solved than in the inner areas of the Dobrudja.

The main point in the news of the Transylvanian campaign available at iime of writing is that the enemy is nob shown to nave at any point achieved the complete penetration of the passes and gained room to deploy on the Rumanian side of the mountains. The Gormans say that they have "stormed" the Vulcan Pass, but the Rumanians admit only that they have lost some ground at that point, and the inference seems to be warranted that the passage of the defile is still in dispute. Much the same applies to the struggle in the Predeal Pass, where also the Rumanians have lost some ground, and in other passes and valleys along the Wallaehian frontier. 1 Fai.kenhayn's columns are evidently attacking heavily, but, as reports stand, they have not yet won the entry for which they are fighting. Further north along the frontier of Moldavia, the Rumanians report a series of successful actions. They have repulsed the cnoiny and. advanced westward in some of the valleys. The Russians also have scored heavily in attacks upon the enemy south of Dorna Vatra, and along the north-eastern frontier of

Rumania. Apparently in .this region the Russians arc extending their flank southward. As information stands, the leading features of the situation on the Transylvanian front are a heavy and undecided conflict in the Wallachian passes, and successful attacks by tho Allies on tho Moldavian frontier.

Rejoicing is reported in Germany over the fall of Constanza, which in tho ordinary way would have been repeated with emphasis on receipt of the news that Cernavoda had shared_ the same fate. But if the true significance of late events at Verdun penetrates to the German public, gloom, instead of rejoicing, will rule in the Fatherland! The German account of a battle in which they lost in a day nearly all the ground that they won at colossal cost in two months of the heaviest fighting of the war is that "a French attack north-east of Verdun gained ground as far as tho burning fortress of Douaumont." As a sample of the efforts that will bo made to obscure the true nature and significance of the brilliant Fronch success this does not look very effective. Tho German people were taught to build high hopes on Verdun, and they cannot be impervious to tho demonstration now afforded of the utter futility of these hopes. As indicating the extent to which the Germans havo sacrificed security in the main theatres in order to capitalise their enterpriso in southeastern Europe, the late battle at Verdun and its outcome aro thoroughly convincing. Precisely because_ of tho moral effect which crushing defeat in the Verdun area must needs produce on the German army and population, we may be c|iiito oertain that thero is np section of their long battle-line which the Germans would more reluctantly weaken. Yet they must havo weakened the Verdun sector materially to go down as they did before the smashing French assault. Wc shall probably be well within the facts in regarding the enemy's collapse at Verdun as a symptom not merely of local, but of widespread weakness.

It is in this light that the French brilliant as it was, chiefly commands attention. At bottom faith in tho Allied prospects does not rest upon the livelihood of a sudden break through any particu-. lar section of the enemy's linethough possibilities of this nature have appeared in the later stages of • the Jsomme offensive—but upon the inevitable effect of the crushing pressure of superior force which is now bearing upon tho enemy throughout the whole area of the war, except, for the time being, in Rumania/. The French stroke at Verdun is above all important and significant as affording positive evidence that ffie strategy of ffie Allies is working out well towards its appointed end. In its local and immediate aspect, however, this latest extension of the Allied operations promises well in the direction of inflicting heavy loss upon the enemy and_ materially increasing the strain to which he is subjected. At time of writing the French report the capture of 4500 prisoners, a number which must be multiplied to arrive at the total enemy losses, and tho French state that their own losses were slight. They are well placed, also, to further develop their offensive. In particular, Fort Vaux and neighbouring positions in the enemy's hands are now enclosed in a small salient, which he will find it extremely costly and difficult to defend. '

It is stated that at the trial of Abler, who reoentlv murdered the Austrian Premier, nhe prosecution declared that the assassin was an excitable man, and probably had no accomplices. The mere tendering of such an explanation suggests that it is probably an inversion. of the truth. There is every reason to believe that the Dual Monarchy is seething with internal disorder, and that ADLER's crime was by no means devoid of political significance. It seems increasingly _ probable that the necessity of doing something to placate public opinion in AustriaHungary accounts for the present offensive operations in south-east-ern Europe, which, in spite of present anxiety for Rumania, promise to ultimately prove a disastrous mistake on the part of the enemy.

An occasional report has come through recently regarding the' operations of German submarines in the Arctic, and the counter-mea-sures taken by the Russians. Today there is news from Copenhagen of an engagement in northern waters in which one enemy 1 submarine was sunk by a Russian warship. The approaches to. Archangel and the Russian winter port of Alexandrovsk have, no doubt, long been a hotbed •of submarine activity, though not much information on the subject has been permitted to escape. Very, probably the submarine operations in these waters have an intimate connection with Germany's present campaign agaiDst Norway, in" which diplomacy of the German order goes ijand in hand with the piratical destruction of Norwegian shipping. German submarines have a long route to cover in order to reach a cruising ground in the Arctic, and their operations would, of course, be greatly facilitated if they were permitted to enter Norwegian ports and fill up their fuel tanks. It is not at all unlikely that the German outrages and threats of which Norway is made a target are inspired by fury at these facilities being denied.