PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2895, 6 October 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

An understanding of what the Western Allies have achieved to date in their offensive in the Sommo region is materially assisted by some extracts from a dispatch in which Sir Douglas Haig reviews the progress of operations since September Jo, when the successful attack on the German third line south of Bapaume was launched, _ and makes some general observations on : tho position reached. As the Comman-der-in-Chief points out, the importance of the threo months' offensive must not be judged by tho distance advanced or the number of trenches taken, but by tho_ effect upon the enemy's strength in numbers, material, and morale. What has.been accomplished in this direction may bo gathered from the ■ fact that on the British section of the front alone twenty-nine German divisions —as nearly as possible & quarter of tho total German force in the Westr ern theatre—havo been withdrawn, broken or exhausted, during tho period of the offensive. Probably ai- least two-thirds as many enemy divisions havo suffered a similar fate on the French section of tho front. In all not far short of onehalf of the divisions constituting tho German Western armies have been exposed, in rotation, in tho inferno of battle on the Somme, and this, with the fact that the Allies havo captured or destroyed a vast amount of military and engineering material, means that the enemy has suffered an appalling loss of fighting strength. The loss is all the greater since he has of necessity thrown his best available troops in the path of the advancing Allies. *9* 1 *

There is necessarily some room for difference of opinion, within limits, as to the number and quality numbers and quality, within limits, of Germany's remaining reserves, but available evidence certainly warrants a belief that the rate of destruction already greatly exceeds her powers of reinforcing and reforming her broken divisions even by making free use of inferior reserves. The number of enemy divisions withdrawn exhausted from the Sommo in itself a belief that Germany, besides' being faced txy the imminent prospect oft further disasters in the immediate area of the offensive, is holding & great part of her Western line with formations ill-fitted to bear the strain of a supreme conflict. German divisions or more, out of a total-of something like a hundred and twenty, have suffered defeat and its attendant consequences since the Allies launched their offensive on July 1, and this, rather than the penetration of the onemy line, affords a measure of the Allied achievement.

While the only real measure of Allied progress is the rate at which the enemy's effective strength is being cut down, the promise of the existing situation in the Western theatre rests in no small degree upon the extent to which the German front has been shattered and frenotrated. I^is and has been true from the first that the Allies are not engaged in an operation for territory, but they have gained a foothold in the onemy's defences which is of supreme importance 'because its possession should enable them to expedite the process of destroying his armies. This holds good whether the Germans for some time to come attempt to hold the opening breach in their defences which continues to open in spite of all that they can do, or seek relief by retreat. In either case they will have lost hopelessly the advantageous conditions they hoped to secure by establishing- the fortified front which has now been shattered and all but breached. I •■• ■ «

The reference made by Sib Douglas Haig to the topography of tho region in which the offensive has developed is suggestive of tho extent to which tho way has been payed for further advance. The British hold an upland, giving direct observation northward and north-eastward, that is to say looking into tho flank of the German defences extending to the north, and towards tho country lying to the east of tho German line. It is to the point also that, in theso conditions as regards observation, the enemy has beonthrown back into dangerous proximity to Bapaume, a oentro in his local communications the loss-of which would of necessity seriously disorganise his defences over a considerable extent of territory. The British are within three miles of Bapaume, and at Gueudecourt and Lesboeufs they are less than two miles distant from [ tho\Bapaume-lo Transloy Road (runi ning south-east from Bapaume), I westward of ' which Sib Dougla3 Haio states tho German fourth lino is located, on a low ridgo. It is a factor in-'tho .situation that Is Transloy is threatened in flank by the French operations north-east of Combles. The highway mentioned by Sir Douglas Haig extends south from le Transloy to Perbnne, and the French, who have advanced beyond it on a front of several miles north of tho Somme, report to-day the capture of a further strong position running across this road at a distance of about three miles from le Transloy.

Sir Douglas Haig deals only with the British section' of tie front, and the general effect of his observations is to show that his troops aro well placed to extend tho breach in the enemy line to the northward, and to continue their drive north-eastward, which makes for the complete penetration of the enemy front. The picture is completed in rough outline when it is recalled that the French have advanced' beyond the BapaumePeronne road on a front of several miles—capturing in their foremost advance positions of more recent and less .elaborate construction than those reduced > further west—that Peronne itself is closely th'tt-aitened, and that the enemy defences further south have also been deeply penetrated. In the last-mentioned area the French have not yet at any point passed the reach of the Sommo whioh runs north to Peronne, but the position of the enemy forces west of this section of the river will become precarious ae soon as Peronne is captured. « .

Viewing the position at largo tho conclusion seems justified that there aro excellent prospects of a. breach being opened in the enemy front amply wide enough to enable the Allies to force a manoeuvre battle. No big development is reported at time of writing, and rainy_ weather is still hampering operations, but it is manifest that exceedingly important issues are likely to hinge upon • tho next active stage of tho | offensive. On the wholo the view

1 seems Lo bo in favour at the moment that the enemy will probably attempt to evade disaster and gain- a measure of relief by retreating. Whether this is a development to be desired from the Allied standpoint is a somewhat open question. A German retreat would necessarily give the Allies an opening for attack under far more open conditions than have been available since siege warfare began. It would iritroduco the day for which the Allied cavalry and other mobile forces are waiting. On the other hand the longer the Germans cling to their shattered line .the greater will be the Allied prospects of striking a deadly blow when a retreatis' ultimately ordered. If he retreats now, or shortly, the enemy may gain a shorter line without suffering absolute disaster in the process, but if he perseveres long enough in his present efforts to hold up a lino that is being brought down in ruin about his ears be will ultimately be mado incapable cither of retreating or of continuing the conflict whero ho stands. « * * *

The chief development reported in the Balkan campaign is the pronounced success achieved by the Serbians and some other sections of the 'Allied forces in the movement against Monastir. One message suggests that the fate of Monastir is already decided, but this awaits confirmation. The capture of Monastir would mean that the first great stage had been covered b a turning movement directed against the Vardar line. The British operations beyond the Struma are also developing successfully, and on a considerable scale, but the northward drive through the Balkans cannot yet be regarded as definitely launched.

Repobts in hand relating to the Rumanian operations which have such an intimate bearing on the Macedonian campaign go. little beyond confirming impressions based on yesterday's news. At time of writing no decisive development is reported in the Dobruja, where a Bulgar-German force commanded by von Maokensen is making a difficult retreat under pressure- of heavy frontal attacks, and seriously threatened also in flank and rear.

An interesting report coming by way of Switzerland declares that the Hermannstadt victory about which the Germans recently made to much noise amounted in fact to the ■ destruction of a single _ Rumanian regiment, which heroically covered the retreat of the main body. The Germans, it will be remembered, asserted that they had routed and put to flight a Rumanian army. It now seems quite plain that the Rumanians, having moved well forward into Transylvania, and gained a strong defensive line, intend to fight a holding campaign in that region for the time being. This is no doubt their best policy, since a more promising field for immediate activity exists in the Balkans. In a general situation in the south-eastern theatre which otherwise would be somewhat obscure, the trend of the Rumanianoperations is a positive indication and assurance that the Allies intend to act vigorously and with little further delay in the, direction of overwhelming Bulgaria and gaining full command of the Balkan corridor. •"'■■'

There is still, at time of writing, little detail news regarding the Sussian southern offensive, but it is stated to be developing successfully, and with good promise. Particular importance attaches to the statement in one Petrograd message that the Russians are in possession of enormous resorves of ammunition, and are shelling the Austrian' line with unparalleled ferocity. Statements of this kind must not bo taken too literally, but the Russians seem at all events to be reasonably well supplied with artillery, and this is the one important factor in which they might conceivably, have been* at a disadvantage as compared with' the enemy.