PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2894, 5 October 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Taking reports in hand, at time of writing as a guide, events in the Balkans are not everywhere moving at the pace that would be attained if the plans of the Allies were working smoothly to their appointed end, but the offensive opened by the Rumanians against, the enemy forces in the Dbbruja seems likely to justify its early promise. In the conditions created by the forcing of the Danube east of Rustchuk, the conflict south of that> river is almost bound to turn to'the advantage of ; the Allies', but much greater advantages are likely to bo achieved if the Rumanians aro powerfully seconded by their Allies on the Greek frontier than if they are left to develop their counter-offensive as an isolated enterprise. / At the moment there is no word of any such attack along the Greek frontier as would be calculated to clear the way for a northward drive through the Balkans. The only reference at present to tho connection between the northern and southern operations against Bulgaria is a statement that Allied aviators aro maintaining communications between General .Sarrail and General Zetton, who commands tho Rumanian forces which have entered Bulgaria. Possibly reports are lagging behind events. With the enemy involved as he is in the Dobruja, and no doubt an important section of his total available force in thc_ Balkans is located in that area, it does not seem likely that anything is to bo gained by delay in pressing the southern offensive.

There- does not seem to bo.any doubt that the Bulgar-German forces in' the Dobruja are in dire peril: Heavily attacked in front, on a line extending from the Danube to the Black Sea, they are also attacked, or threatened with attack, on both flanks.' The territory through which they aro retreating has been- reduced by rain to the condition of a marsh.' It contains no railways, and is poorly'provided, with roads. These- conditions will necessarily hamper the Allies to some extent in following up the retreat, but it is probably much more important that the retreat is bound to be slow. There is a possibility at least that before it has been safely effected a formidable flank at--tack may be launched from tho bridgehead gained by the Rumanians east of Rustchuk. As yet the Rumanians aro merely established on the south bank of the river, 1 but it is stated that they are firmly ontrenohed against attack, and no doubt they will rapidly assemble force for an offensive stroke. It is reported that the Rumanian troops which gained the bridgehead crossed tho Danube in boats—a statement which points to extraordinary laxity and weakness in the Bulgarian 1 defence of the river line—bub bridging operations will, of course, bo in progress. It is claimed in an onemy report that Austrian monitors destroyed Rumanian pontoons in the locality of the crossing, but such monitors as the Austrians have on the Danube

aro not likely to put up any great fight against land artillery. It is an important factor in tho situation that the enemy's right flank is exposed to attack from tho sea, and, however far he may retreat, he will not escape this disability. »«* * - A message transmitted yesterday rjuoted Colonel Repixqton as stating that, von Hindbnbueg'b Rumanian offensive was almost tho last possible German stroke and that wbilo it could not alter results it might, prolong the war if it were not adequately met. As the situation is developing, however, tho enemy offensive in Transylvania shows no _ sign of assuming formidable dimensions. To-day a stir of fighting is reported along a great oart of the. Transylvanian front, but the Rumanians are shown to be firmly established well beyond their own frontier, in some places many miles' beyond it, and the best proof that they are not meeting undue pressure in this theatre is to be found in the. vigorous enterprise they a,re now developing south of the Danube; The enemy seems to be fighting _ without prospects in Transylvania, and it is a striking indication of the condition to which ho is reduced that he has made no more determined effort to upset the Allied plans, and strengthen his own position, further south, in the Balkans. _In the existing etate of information any review of the situation must reach' the conclusion that the determining factor will-be the action taken by the Allied army in Greece. It is upon this point that the whole situation turns. The' Rumanians are under no temptation meantime to press their invasion of Transylvania. From a weak frontier they have advanced to advantageous positions in the mountain country lying boyond 'it, and it is ontirely in their interest to. postpone a more extended invasion of Transylvania until the clearance of the Balkan corridor gives them the powerful co-operation of an Allied army advancing north from the Danube as well as that of the Russians on their northern flank.

The operations now under way in! tho Dobruja_ and further west indicate that this in fact is-the policy Rumania intends to pursue. The Allied offensive from Greece is not yet definitely under way, but the fact that Rumania has turned from tho further invasion .of Transylvania to an attack on affords tho strongest possible reasons for believing that the southern offensive is on the eve of being launched. In attack ; ng tho BulgarGerman forces, Rumania is materially extendinghor fighting front, and Vill extend it further ,as the battle develops. It is not to bo supposed that she would tako this course exoept in the expectation that, in concert with her Allies, she will be abled to attain results of decisive importance. * If the I general policy of the Allies had made for further delay in the Balkans, Rumania's natural course would have been to remain on her own side of the Danube and on a short and easily defended front in the Dobruja. ■ i #- *■ * *

Current reports upon tho Macedonian operations, though thoy disclose no general forward movement by the Allies, describe a condition of affairs from which the transition to a general offensive might easily be rapid. The Serbs are pressing forward in "the "area" southeast of Monastir, and the French have made some- headway along the Monastir railway. It is stated officially that in this region 'the Bulgars appear to be retreating northward. At the 6ame time the Bri: tish have .extended their conquests east of the .Struma. A dispatch from Me. Ward Price indicates that the enemy's recent. losses on this section of the front have been very heavy. Reports relating to political affairs in Greece are also of hopeful cast. The revolutionary movement is said to,, be making steady headway, and it is good news, if true, that tie Cabinet has. been broken up by the resignation of most of its members, and is likely to be recast on a national basis.

Not much new light is thrown _ at time of writing upon the position in the main theatres, but the interesting suggestion is made by Mr. Philip Gibb3 that the Germans in the Somme region are perhaps making a gradual withdrawal, masked by sharp counter-blows. In view of the extent to which the enemy defences have been overthrown, this is by no means unlikely. Heavy rain _is hampering the offensive for the time being, but' weeks of good .weather still lie ahead, and much may happen before winter descends. In the Eastern theatre stubborn battles are being fought in Galioia and in Southern Russia, on tho approach to Vladimir Volynski.'but though the Russian offensive is reported to be making steady headway little detail news is available at the moment. Muoh bettor authority than that of a German communique is needed for the statement that 26,000 Russian prisoners were lately captured on the Zlota Lipa, in Galioia. The general tenor of the news, official and otherwise, makes its pretty certain that this particular roport is untrue. ' .