PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2893, 4 October 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

One of the most interesting items ?u ? eW i to " da y a German report that_ the enemy (Russians or Rumanians, or both) has gained a footing on the right bank of the Danube, south of Bucharest. This points to a very important development in the Balkan campaign. The limited Bui-gar-German retreat which followed upon tho collapse of Ton Mackens.offensive m the Dobruja left the Allies in Rumania in touch with .the enemy along the' line of the Danube, where it runs between Rumania and Bulgaria, to the.re®lo?i Silistria, and then east and south from that point on'a line beon' Danube and, the Black oea. There has been no word of any retirement by the enemy, on the south bank of the Danube, much beyond Silistria, and the interest of the German report mentioned lies in the fact that it credits the Rumanians with gaining a bridgehead on.-yhe Bulgarian side of the Danabout 60 miles west of the line of battle in the 'Dobriija. Gaining such a, bridgehead and advancing from it, the Rumanians, or the Russo-Rumanians, would be weli placed to cut across the communications of the enemy force in the Dobruja and take it in rear. Such an event as the Germans report might easily mark the beginning of the general Allied offensive in the Balkans, which, up to the present, has hung fire. It may be noted that the locality indicated has special advantages from the point of view of a crossing. The Danube is here approached from the north by a Rumanian railway and on the south side by a Bulgarian railway to the town and river port of Rustchuk. At 'this point, also, the course of the Danube is broken by islands and bridging would be a simpler matter than if the whole breadth 'of the stream had to be spanned.,

A Rumanian communique just received confirms and amplifies the Gorman report. Tho Rumanians have forced the Danube, not at Rustchuk, but further east, between that place and Turtukai, and the enemy army in tho Dobruja is threatened in rear.. At - the same time the Allied forces have attacked all along the line in the. Dobruja, and up to the present the enemy has been' repulsed on his centre and right flank, that is to say, towards tho Black Sea coast and midway between that locality and the Danube. . If tho Allies succeed in advancing rapidly from their new bridgehead tho Bulgar-Gcrmans will stand in immediate peril of a serious disaster. Vigorously attacked in front, outflanked and taken in rear on the Danube, and with their right flank extending to the Black Sea coast already insecure by reason of Russian naval supremacy, it should tax their powers to accomplish anything liko an orderly retreat from the Dobruja.

In their immediate aspect these events on tho Danube promise well, and, as has been said, it is very possible that they, hold also a larger significance as indicating the imnfinenco of general offensive action by, the Allies in tho Balkans. Tho

forcing <57 tlio Danube is a, distinct and radical departure from the defensive attitude hitherto maintained by the Allies on the Rumanian southern ■ front. It indicates incidentally that no apprehension is entertained regarding the situation in Transylvania, and on top of. this it seems unlikely that tho Rumanians would attack Bulgaria on the north without being assured that a forward movement by the Allies in Greece is in early prospect/ The crossing of the Danube cannot possibly be regarded as incidental to a defensive campaign. Tho RusssjRumanians were firmly established on a line across the Dobruja which the enomy had striven in vain to break, and it is certainly not under the spur of necessity that they have taken their present action: We are almost bound to conclude that their move marks the opening of a new phase in the • south-eastern campaign, and one which is probably destined to witness rapid and sweeping developments. *v* * »

Rumania is coramandingly placed for the purposes of an attack on Bulgaria, and it is very possible that tho orossing of the Danube) east of Rustchuk will be followed up by similar action much further west, where a nearer approach is available to tho main railway through the Balkans, on which Germany is still ostentatiously running the Berlin-Constantinople express. But the prospects of an offensive campaign beyond the Rumanian southern frontiers aro largely dependent upon concerted action being taken by tho army in Greeco , 'in which five Allied nations are represented. At the moment no definite development is reported in Greecc. South-east of Monastir, tho Serbians have advanced a mile or so into their own territory, from Mount Kaimakchalan. where they recently defeated the Bulgarians in a heavy and desperatoly-contested battle, and the British, have satisfactorily rounded off their attacks on enemy positions on the Struma front. In regard to a great part of tho front, however, no reports at all are made, and for the rest Greeco is shown to bo still hanging in stays politically. M. Vhnizelos and the revolutionary party havo not yet gained complete command' of the situation, and tie Allies are apparently disinclined to force the issue with -Kino OonstanTINE.

Unless evente'on the Rumanian front belie their promise, very different news should come presently from Greece. In One of .the later messages in hand the crossing of the Danubo is described as an effective and dramatic stroke. This it undoubtedly is, but its effect will largely bo thrown away unless events in ' the immediate future prove it to bo an ordered step in tho development of an offensive in which the- Allies will bring their full weight to bear. The conquest of the Balkan corridor is'not likely to be achieved by action from Rumania alone. On available information General Sarkail has. a force under his command which is not likely to be kept much longer marking time on tho vergo o£ 'siioh a ■ favourable field of enterprise as now" exists in Mho Balkans. It is a long time since 'any official information as to tho strength of tho Allied army' in Greece has been made public, but a few weeks ago it 'was stated by Me. Simonds, a_ well-known Amorioan military: writer, that the force under General £arrail's command had been estimated at from 500,000 to 650,000 men. This does not include the later arrived Russian and Italian contingents, said (on the same authority) to number at least 100,000 nicn, nor the Italian force of nearly 100,000 men 1 based on Avlona. Unless these figures are grossly exaggerated, the concerted offensive for which the stage is set in the Balkans should have most ex- [ cellent prospects. If the Allies have prepared on tho scale here indicated, we may be tolerably certain that political complications in Greece will not bo allowed to stand in the way 'of the early and vigorous execution of their plans. *• • * - _ Bad weatEer is hampering operations on the Somme, but it is highly probable that the offensive will be resumed in full power as soon as weather conditions improve. References to heavy bombardment of the German line in Flanders • suggest, _as they stand, 'that the Allies 1 are likely, to attack in that quarter. It must be recognised, however, that the progress of the Somme offensive raises a distinct prospect ■that the enemy may find it necessary, before winter sets in, to evacuate portion of the lines.in which he has sunk bo much labour and material. and attempt a retreat to a shorter line. So far as breaking the line and compelling a retreat are concerned, it is difficult to see what the Allies would now gain by selecting a new point of attack. V.*' * * *

Various reports tell of the rising development ol the Russian southern offensive, but there is little in the naws in hand at time of writing which calls for extended remark. It is evident that the Russians are bringing tremendous pressure_'to bear, and it would be most unwise to estimate their power relatively to that of the enemy, by the fact that they have for some time made little forward progress.' Already the Austro-Germans are extended almost to the limits of endurance on the long front against whioh the offensive has developed, and the more existing conditions are intensified the greater is likely to be their ultimate disaster.