JAPAN AND HER NEIGHBOURS

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2878, 16 September 1916, Page 11

JAPAN AND HER NEIGHBOURS

THE TREATY WITH RUSSIA

AND EVENTS IN CHINA

(By Dr.- J. tugram- Bryan, in tlio Sydney, "Morning Herald.") f 1

, Toklo, July 3. Ihe most interesting of recent events in. Japan is the conclusion of an allianco.with .Russia. In celebration of tho event Prince Kalian, is about;to bo dispatched -to Petrcmrad in an oschangß visit for that- paid by tho Grand Uuko George Michailevitch, ■who camo- to Tokio some months ago, in oonnection with the proposed alliance.. The details of tlio compact 'are not yot officially made public, but ■ the outlines given-by, tho vernacular ; Tress indicate the , terms of the agreement to be of far-reaching importance from an international point of view. One of tho most significant clauses is j that with reforerico to the offensive aid defensive alliance between Japan and Russia, evidently aimed at somo third party, by which the two countries agree to come to the assistance of each other ill: case their , interests in China aro threatened by any third party< Tliis is generally understood in Japan to be aimed at tha United States, though no ono will openly admit it. 'JBy the.-terms of tlie agreement Russia also: oohsents to 'selV to Japan- about 75\miles of tlie Chineso Eastern so as to link up the Japanese line with that of Russia, and -also, to give Japan, the right-of way equally with Russia on tlio Siigari Rivor. . ■ There is no doubt; Japan had' some difficulty in inducing Russia to conccdo all Ihe terms of tho compact, as is ovidenced' by the length of timo taken to conclude tho alliance since its proposal many nionUig kro. Rut, dependent-as Russia is on Japan for supply of the latter had tie whip hand, and . doubtless-. obtained - more' liberal concessions .that would otherwise have - been the case. No doubt, : Britain was consulted every, step of the way, as no.alli- . .since could; bo concludcd that in any senso contravened the Anglo-Japaneeo Alliance; yet, under the circumstances, thevb is a general -feeling that' even Britain had to guarantee more liberal concessions to Japan,' especially in tho ■ manipulation of Chinese affairs,' .than . would have naturally been the caso had there been no 'war in Europe. ' The - Japanese Press suggests... that there are even more important terms / in the compact, which are regarded as secret; and will-not . be. published with the terms of the formal allianco. If this bo so, it is to bo regretted, as the possibility, of a secret agreement between Japan. and Russia would lead to all _ maniier of suspicions, obliging f.he l?ower,s concerned to keep wido-open, eye and tempting them, into efforts to .'ascertain the nature of such secret agreement. *■; ' ' Japan and Russia. But since the revision of the AngloJapanese ' Alliance relieving, Britain of the obligation to come to Japan's , assistance in v case the latter has war witli, : America or .any ' other country with which Britain .has entered ; into -'an .arbitration .treaty, Japan .has been . increasingly ;dissatisfied, and. anxious to obtain the guaranteed assistance of. come other country, especially- Russia. Whether'this promise has been now obtained from., Russia, under stress -if circumstances is. a-question. One. thing, that renders';.it .improbable/ is j that Britain,.,if it. is ; true,.that she. has been- duly consulted, would riot bo • likely .to-concur-in. .any - conspiracy | agdinsi,'America'.:, So iWhen_tho;.ver-j nacular -Press of Japan. insists that j the new compact jwitli Russia aims at obliging Russia to.assist Japan in case ! • of, conflict with . a third party over'. Japan's movements in China, it uust be takpn with .some degree,of .reserve! One has to indulgo in a balancing of probabilities. Are_ ; the' present, . circumstances of Russia, in which she is , said to bo dependent on Japan fo- munitions, such that she would be obliged, to concur in an agreement aimed at' the United States, and practically at England? For Britain is just as nil;eh concerned as. America to keep the open door in China. To most, minds, the thing would seem not only • improbable, _ but_ impossible. And that - this is likely apears all the more '' evident from , tho • fact > that every day sees, enormous supplies of munitions coming from America to Russia by way of VladivostocK; so that now America is \as important a ■ source of supply to_ Russia as is Japan, arid ari inexhaustible one. : Of course, it may bethat' at the timo wheii'.tlio" Grand .Duke visited Japan Russia was in some extremity for munitions' supply. She had just been suffering from the great German drive, and doubtless her supply of shells, was very 10w... In Japan it- is believed that she .had Tot-reated simply for. want of ■ ammunition. If such were the case Russia,six.months ago may have been more ready to grant , unusual 'terms; to . Japan than she is to-day, and; having conceded - theari then, cannot now go back on -them. But since the. future of ' Britain and Russia is so assuredly, one for' a long time to come, the world may rest satisfied that Britain has .not permitted any agreement between Japan and Russia that would in: any way prove a menace to Anglo-Saxon interests and the-peace of the world.* 1

The Situation in China. Next in importance comes the situation ia China, which seems now to be looking more toward a peaceful solution. ■ Japan is to change her representative in Peking, as sho has already done in Washington and London, which points to an important change of foreign policy in Tokio. Those familiar, with the trend of opinion in Japan will be disposed to see in this a determination to hasten the adjustment of the various, questions; Japan hopes to get rid of as a result of the conflict in Europe. . At loast, in her opinion,; , it will ho easier to. get the belligerents to ''fall in with Japanese desires now than after peace is concluded. Baron Hayaslii. formerly Japanese Ambassador, at-Rome. is to replace Mr.' Hioki at Peking. He has the roputation of strong sympathv for China, and is expected to win China's confidence more effectivelv than his precedessor, who entirely failed in that respect. It was not probable that tho new regime in China could ever have confidence in any Japanese official who had to do with the presenting and enforcing tho famous 21 demands of two years ago. Consequently the change is hut natural. But no one can say that thero is nnv proof of Japan's revision of expects, from China. So long as ■ Yuan Shi Kai was alive nothing could bring the two countries closer together, not even money I But wTio is to say as much for the now Government at Peking? It may bo exoected. therefore, that advances for the present will bo quiet and peaceful, as there is no sign of-peace in Europe as yet. Japan has to deal with rebels oil the one hand and the established Government on tho other. With the rebels she can only have indirect dealings; all her official acts have to bo with Pekinrr. Her, present policy is ono of mediation between them, mid tho nuestion of how far they will 1m willing to give her a say is a. most delicate one. Sho does not intend to speak a"d have her vniee unheeded, as she did wth Yuan Shi Kai,-simply because she was tied to the Powers. Sho will act more independently this time, and sho

has got the Russian alliance concluded just 111 time to help her out in the undertaking in China. i Japan and tha Rebals. 1 In the meantime the southern rebels ,in China are engaging Japanese, experts in aviation and other military arts for purposes of their, own; and there is no doubt oonstant communication between Japanose friends and tlie- element opposed to Peking. If the Chinese Government can only reach a compromise with tho rebels and mako poaco without tho assistance of Japan, tho latter 'will bo just wliero shb was at the beginning ; and no doubt this would be best for China. Yet the leadens m China may not yot see.what is for their country's good; Tliero is such a conflict m that country between personal interests and loyalty on tne ono hand and bribery on "the other that the up- , shot of it, all might easily be the further disintegration of tiie country. . It is. indeed a critical situation and a delicate element that Japan!has been playing with now for so many months; but from the quiet movement of mat-' ters in ' Tokyo and the almost roticertt' referenco-to the situation in official circles, ono may reasonably conclude that Japan feels assured of having the situation well in hand, and would have had it in liand sooner had sho been given a freer hand by her allies. How much .freer lier" hand is to-day than a is a matter of speculation, but many' in Japan seem convinced that sho .enjoys greater liberties than hitherto. Japan, it is 6aid, has been entrusted' with tho -management, or at least the supervision, of tho situation, in China by at least Russia, and England, and that ! is as much as' slie asks for the present. '