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PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Now that Rumania has joined the Allies the Balkan campaign should take shape rapidly. At the moment- of writing the only news of military events in tho south-eastern thoatre is the brief announcement in a London message that Rumania has launched hostilities in Transylvania. Probably this means little more meantime than the strong concentration she is bound to effect upon her somewhat exposed western frontier. 'Where her territory is bounded on the west By the Carpathians and the Transylvanian mountains. _ Rumania is at much the same disadvantage as Italy was at the beginning of her war with Austria. The principal passes through the mountains are under Austrian control, and so far as the geographical location of tho frontier is concerned, Austria is favourably placed to invade either, Moldavia or Wallachia, tho northern and southern divisions of Rumania. The position is, ,of course, modified by the fact that Austria is in poor condition to undortake a new campaign, and still further by the Russian threat of an invasion of Hungary from tho north, but Rumania's first business must be to secure her western frontier, and this is likely to involve some fighting for the passes. Whether she will attempt at once" to press forward to an invasion of Transylvania is at the moment an open question, but the _ probabilities aro somowhat against it. Her natural course, assuming that her intervention implies full co-operation ,with the Allies, would bo to aim in the first instance at establishing a strong front in the Carpathians and Transylvanian Alps. This done, she might advantageously postpone an invasion of Transylvania in: order to take part with the Allies in the subjugation of Bulgaria. Adopting, this policy, Rumania would be supported in her'ultimate invasion of the Dual Monarchy by the Allied army advancing through- the"- Balkans, as well as probably by a Russian invasion on the-north.

Whatever direction hor initial activities may take, the advent of Rumania confers a formidable reinforcement on the Allies, and does a great deal to'clear the way for the development and extension of the Balkan campaign. The mobilised 6trongth of tho Rumanian army is in the region of 600,000' men. It has been described as in all respects highly efficient and well-provided except as regards artillery and munitions.\ These deficiencies haw no doubt been mado good by importations by way of Russia. There is no other route by which Rumania can. at present obtain military supplies, and her dependence in_ this respect increases the probability that sho is acting in full cooperation with tho Allies.

As to the prospect of a Rumanian invasion of Bulgaria, though thero is no report at time of writing that war has been declared between the two countries, it is stated that the Bulgarian and' Turkish Minister havo quitted Bucharest. On her frontier facing Bulgaria, Rumania labours under no such disadvantage as sho does on the west. For practical purposes the frontier is open.' There are forts along the Danube, but a considerable stretch of Rumania's south-eastern territory (the Dobruja) runs well to.the south of tho rivor. If it Booomes necessarj to cross the Danube further west, the Rumanians are no doubt ci|j' able of repeating their achievement in _ the second Balkan war, when a swift and easy crossing was made at Silistria.

The most plausible explanation yet given of the recent extension of the Bulgarian invasion of. Greece is that it represents, or rather represented, a desperate attempt to upset tho Allied plans. It can hardly be regarded ag an enterprise still in progress, for it has manifestly failed. According to Me. Jeffries, a correspondent at Athens, the Bulgarian scheme was to rapidly overcome the Serbian troops on the Greek frontier and descend with a fast-moving army corps on Old Greece, perhaps penetrating towards Athens. Mr. Jeffries adds that the Bulgarians hoped that a state of general disorder would result in Greece, which would seriously embarrass General Sarrail. 'No 'doubt they hoped also that these developments would intimidate Kumania, and induce her to remain neutral. It was at best a forlorn hope upon which tho Bulgars embarked, and their failure is attested equally in. tho continued occupation by the Allies of their lino aoross Northern Greece and facing Eastern Macedonia, and in tho intervention of Rumania. While their failure to upset the Allied plans is obvious, the Bulgars have been moro successful where Greece is concerned, sinco their invasion seems to have reduced her to the last" stage of impotence. Greece had a final chance to act in defence of_ her territory, and for tho realisation of her national aspiratidns, but as far as oan be judged that chance has departed. There is still talk of a coup-de-theatre which would cast out tho pro-Gormans who have led Greece so far on the road to ruin, and instal M. Venizelos in power, but it is at best'doubtful whethor Greece has now any tangible prospect of regaining' tho standing she has lost.

It 'is a reasonable assumption that the Bulgarians would not have undertaken the enterprise in which they have stopped so far short of success but for. tho fact that their country is completely dominated and controlled by tho Central Empires. Tsah Ferdinand and his Ministers are hopelessly committed, and their prospects are wholly identified with those of the Teutonic League. It is therefore-' likely that they consented willingly enough to use tho Bulgarian army in a forlornhopc attempt to stave off disaster. Tho present result of this policy iB that tho Bulgarian forces are far more dangerously exposed than if' they had been retained within their own,territory and that of Serbia.' To appearance, the Bulgarians are now faced by impossible odds. Thoy are exposed to attack by superior forces both on' north and Bouth, and have no prospect of receiving offective aid. News in hand tellb of no more definite military development in Greece than a forward movement by tho ■ Serbians in the frontier region west of the Vardar. but there are reports ' also a risspirit of rovolt in the Bulgarian population, which has led already to serious conflict with German troops. It is not impossible that tho path of the Allies in the Balkans may bo further cleared by a Bulgarian revolution, involving the deposition of Tsae Ferdinand and the downfall of his Gov--eminent.

It will be noticed that Me. Jeffries, in referring to the events of the battle on the Greek frontier, speaks of eight thousand Serbians making a gallant stand against 60,000 Bulgarians. This should not be regarded as affording any index to the strength of the Allied army based on Salonika. The explanation of tho disparity'of force mentioned presumably is that the Allies had to act rapidly in meeting an unexpected move by the Bulgars, and that in the initial stages of the conflict they were outnumbered! At all events the Serbians alone in Greece number about 130,000, 'and while official information is lacking as to the total strength of General S'akrail's army, reports have indicated that he has about 000,000 men under his command.

With the Italians and .Russians participating, an even greater army may presently bo concentrated for an offensive through the Balkans. To Italy in particular thjs- theatre offers an opportunity for the effective use of her strength which is still largely lacking on tho confines of her own territory. . Apart from differences of opinion on the question of prospective territorial adjustments in the a question which has now presumably been satisfactorily settled—she was in no condition to turn this opportunity to account while an Austrian invasion of her northern provinces was still a-visible possibility. As a result of her own achievements and those of her Allies, this danger seems to have been finally set at rest, and it. is likely that Italy would materially hasten the victorious issue of her own main campaign, and of the war as a whole by co-opirat-ing on a considerable scale with her Allies in the Balkans.

Bad weather is temporarily hampering operations in. the Western theatre, and the Russians report an unchanged position on the Eastern front, but nothing is more certain than that very different reports will soon be coming both from the main theatres and from Italy. In order that the enemy may be engaged to the best possible advantage in the south-eastern theatre, it is necessary that he should be given no respite on his existing fronts, and it may be taken for granted that the''development of the Balkan campaign will be accompanied by intensified activity elsewhere. Tub later reports in hand amplify thfc promise of the news which has boen touched upon. An important detail is that the Russians are said to have organised a considerable force, Which is destined to advance through Rumania to attack Bulgaria. . This would leave Rumania Free to concentrate undividedly against the Austrians.

Permanent link to this item
Hononga pūmau ki tēnei tūemi

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/DOM19160830.2.13

Bibliographic details
Ngā taipitopito pukapuka

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2863, 30 August 1916, Page 4

Word count
Tapeke kupu
1,474

PROGRESS OF THE WAR Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2863, 30 August 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2863, 30 August 1916, Page 4

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