PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2848, 12 August 1916, Page 8

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

■ Good headway is still being made by the Russians in Southern Galieia, both north and'south of the Dniester. Oil' the north bank they have forced another tributary, and south of the Dniester they havo captured Chryplin, a railway station three miles south-south-east of Stanislait, which is their immediate goal. Cutting tho railway at Chryplin, the Russians have already deprived the enemy of a lateral railway backing his front south towards the Carpathians. One hindrance to Russian urogrcss is the destruction of bridges by the retreating enemy, and in a land of rivers like SouthernGalicia there is, of course, great scope for these tactics. Bridges capable of serving military needs will no doubt, however, be quickly provided. An example of whatis possible in this way is supplied in the German passage of the Vistula at Warsaw last year. A track was laid upon a line of tho thousand-ten barges that ply on the Vistula, and it is said that trains were crossing this improvised bridge in little more than twenty-four- hours from the .time when its construction-was taken in hand. # At time of writing Russian. reports make no reference to events in , Southern Russia, on the Stochcd

salient, opposite KoveJ,- and north and south of that suction of . the line. Enemy reports, however, tell of a tide of heavy fighting in this region, and assert that t-h-a Russians arc heavily attacking. An Austrian re-' port particularly deserves attention. It states that the Russians are attacking in strong force along the line of the Kovel-Sarny railway —on the approach to Kovcl from the east-north-east—and adds that most of the attacks were broken. This implies that other attacks were not broken, and gained ground. Thus, even from enemy reports, it.would seem that the Russians are making a little headway in Southern' Russia, and there is certainly no indication of an enemy counter-stroke in that region which would tend to neutralise the developing Russian sue--cess in Galicia

Much interesting detail is added to the-story of the Italian victory on the Isonzo line, but no radical change is disclosed in the situation reported yesterday. Between Gorizia and the Gulf of Trieste the Italians have captured some further positions. They have by this time reaped the man fruits of their attack, but it has no doubt done a good deal to clear the way for a further development of the offensive. A noteworthy detail is the official statement that 18 Austrian aeroplanes were captured, apparently in depot. ■ Since it would not have been very difficult to get' the aerolanes out of harm's way their capture is a significant indication of the stress of a disastrous .and unexpected defeat, and suggests that the total loss of material suffered by the Austrians must have been very great.

Some additional ground has been gained on the Sommo front by both sections of the Allied army, but tho latest reports in hand indicate a 'temporary slackening, in the conflict. Tljs local engagements recently reported have no doubt been going on simultaneously with an 'intense bombardment of the enemy lines, but a Paris message which stated a day or two ago' that such a bomoardment was in progress as indicated the imminence of another general assault must now be dismissed as an exaggeration which anticipated events;

A correspondent at British headQuarters in France is credited with the statement that the Germans had prepared plans ! for a retreat from their Western front early- in June, With or- without warrant,. this report as it is transmitted almost carries a suggestion of semi-official aubut t-hore is no obvious way of testing its authenticity. Wc know, of course, that if the Germans could contrive a safe retreat'to the region of their' own frontier they would be very much better placed as regards lengthening out the war, always, supposing' that they could annul the factor of moral effect. This, however, is beyond their power, and it is therefore somewhat doubtful whether they ever seriously contemplated a voluntary retreat.

.An indefinite report which ap> peared yesterday is confirmed to-day in the official Russian statement that fierce fighting is proceeding north of Mush and Bitiis. This is rather bad news, for it can only be taken to mean. that the Russians have been dislodged from the strong positions they gained, _ months ago, south of these towns, in the mountains dividArmenia >' from Mesopotamia. Bitiis is in iSouthern Armenia about a: dozenmilcs west of Lake Van; and Mush is 40 miles away to the west and north. The news does not seem to admit of any other interpretation than that the Russians have been driven : out of the passes they had mastered in the Taurus range, south of Mush and Bitiis. This is a disappointing development, the more sosince tho late extension of their front in Central Armenia to beyon'V.Erzingan had raised, expectations that the Russians would soon be able to direct an offensive movement south and west towards tue Bagdad railway. Though the Sick Man of Europe is in throttling toils,; it must be confessed that he has given an indication or two lately that he is not yet quite at his last gasp.

A hint of coming events in the Balkans is perhaps conveyed in the report that the French have begun a bombardment of Doiran, a'town on the Serbo-Greek frontier, a -dozen miles east of the Vardar Valley. The news at ' all events pains special significance from being transmitted in. an official communique. During the last few days several unofficial reports have described local fighting arid, bombardment at various points on the northern Greek, frontier, but the fact that the bombardment of Doiran is officially reported suggests that more important operations are .in-: train. Doiraii stands tin the southern shore of a fair-sized lake.' The country to the north is hilly,-but the valleys afford a practicable approach to tho Vardar River and railway, on the' west, some distance north of the frontier. When the Allies entered Serbia in the latter part of last year, the French moved up the Vardar valley and the British by way of Doiran. Apart from a general statement that the Allies now hold a line extending from the south-western corner of Serbia to the Struma valley, recent news has, thrown little light upon the disposi-~ tion of their forces. It has' indeed been "mentioned that the Serbs are fighting.in the Ivarajova.mountains, wnich . follow .part of. the frontier between the Vardar and Monastir, on. the west, .but messages during the last day -or two have shown Serbian' troops to be engaged also in the Vardar valley, and' British natrols have encountered the enemy oetween the Vardar and Though indications point at the moment to an impending attack on tho Vardar line,, the centrc of interest may shift presently to the Struma valley, forty miles further cast, or the Monastir railway route, sixty miles west of the Vardar. It is. a matter, meantime, of waiting for events, but the general . position reached,, apart from the significant'detail report mentioned above, makes it probable that the Allied offensive will soon takc : definite shape.

One rather important question, which possibly hinges upon the action of tho Allies in. Greece, is that of the policy Rumania intends to follow. Obviously that country is now. very near to tho time when she must dccido whether to_ depart from her neutrality neutral to the end of the war. Some time ago (before the Russian offensive opened) a-correspondent at Rome quoted a Rumanian diplomat as stating that though tho opportune .moment for Rumania to emerge from her neutrality had not arrived, it might •arrive at any moment. "We • are waiting for a Russian success in

Transylvania," • he added. "We cannot enter the war before being sure that the Austrian line in Transylvania has been wiped out. Our frontier towards Transylvania is an unfortunate one. It resembles the Italian frontier on the Alps before the war. Austria controls the principal passes and would bo easily able to invade our country. It is necessary that this : control should be broken by the" Russians, at least on the north." This may or may not have been a representative expression of Rumanian opinion at the time. In any case, it states conditions which Rumania is not now likely to. secure as a preliminary to entering the war, although it is no doubt open to her I to. do. .so on advantageous conditions: .

Magnificent-.success, has attended the Russian offensive, but -it does jiot seem to immediately threaten Transylvania. The Austrians still, hold , the Carpathians barrier protecting that great provinco against invasion from the north,- and the Russians.are at present deeply committed in -their 'eastward drive against Lemberg and Kovcl. If Rumania; waits until the Russians break through the Carpathians •; to an invasion ,of Transylvania she will almost certainly find that she has lost her market, ancl that I3e idea of Rumanian intervention is no longer-regarded with favour bv the Allies... On the other hand, Rumania is.still in a position to render services in" the common cause" which would make her alliance valuable,' and this without incurring any un-.' due danger. The nature of her' frontier marching with Transylf vania remains a' handicap,' but it is a handicap which has been very greatly' modified by the disastrous losses Austria has suffered during the last two months. Entering the war, Rumania would not necessarily be called upon to waste her strength in assaulting . a strong frontier, nor is it likely that she Qas now much cause to fear an Austrian invasion. She would probably best serve her own interests and those of the Allies by postponing an invasion of Transylvania and combining in the first instance with the Allied army in Greece to speedily overwhelm Bulgaria and the probably not numerous Aust-ro-ferman forces still located in' the alkans. The opportunity Rumania as yet has of entering the war on these terms would not outlast ihe development of'an Allied offensive from Greece to any point of material success. It is on this account that the opening of the Balkan offensive. may be expected to finally determine whether "{umania intends to enter the war or remain neutral. If her decision is for war, the conquest of ; the .Balkans should |je greatly simplified and prospects will appear of a very powerful concerted attack upon the Central' Umpires where-they are' weakest. If Rumania decidcs to remain neutral evonts in the south-eastern theatre will necessarily develop less rapidly, but they will still be capable ,of materially influencing the g innr.il course of the war.