PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2833, 26 July 1916, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is no new thing- for a leading statesman in an Allied country to deolaro bis firm confidence in tho ultimate victory of the Allies, but the statement by Mr. Lloyd George, which is reported to-day, is in more than one respect a bold departure from precedent. His buoyant declaration that we aro going to snatch victory in a few months over what appeared at one time an invincible military Power goes considerably beyond any statement on the military situation hitherto made by • a Minister of standing in Great Britain or any other Allied country. Jndccd, the statement of tho Secretary of State for War may bo subjected to criticism even by those who arc in no way inclined to dispute tho conclusion at which he has arrived. Tho danger of taking anything for granted in a war of this kind is so real that it must be assumod that Mr. Lloyd George did not state his conviction that tho Allies are in sight of a comparatively early victory merely for the sake of inspiriting the House of Commons ancl the country. Like her Allies, Britain is prosecuting the war in a spirit of high and unflinching determination, and both tho Army and tho nation are giving such an account of themselves as to mako it abundantly clear that they stand in no need of encouraging words to stimulate them to continued effort in tho cause of victory. On tho other hand, there is a certain danger—-Mr. Lloyd George evidently does not think it a very gravo danger—that the mere assurance that tho end is in sight may be taken in some quarters as an excuse for a slackening in effort, which the position reached is as far as possible from warranting. The demand of tho hour, with the Allies pressing hard upon a failing enemy, is for continued and unremitting effort until victory, instead of boing in sight only, is in hand.

Looking at the matter only from this standpoint, it may seem that talk of would be better postponed until victory- is won. It is to be remembered, however, that this memorable speech of the Secretary for War will command attention not only in British and Allied countries, but in enemy countries as well, and in its effect upon the enemy the speech may quite possibly operate as an influence tending to hasten the end of the war. Any survey of the war situation which fails to give full weight to the factor of moral effect can only lead to hopelessly, erroneous conclusions. The fortitude of the enemy may give way long before his material resources arc depleted. Wo may talk in a general way about the possibility of the enemy the war to' the last ditch, but it is most unlikely that the phraso will bo really justified by events. Until a few months ago the people of the Central Empires were buoyed up by hopes of conquest; indeed by a belief that they had conquered, and • that little more remained than to gather in the fruits. Now they know better. Already their armies have suffered shattering defeats, and have no better prospect than that of still greater defeats to follow. The military strain against which they are no longer able to make effective head is enormously increased by their occupation of wide areas of invaded territory of which they havo now but a precarious tenure. To suppose that tho people of the Central Empires will indefinitely continuo tho struggle under these conditions, merely for tho sake of postponing decisive defeat, is to class them as insane. In the natural order of events their moral fibre will give way long before the Allied armies have completed their work of destruction.

In Germany and Austria, as far as it is allowed to penetrate those countries, the speech of the British War Minister will be apt to souud like a knell oE doom, and intensify the gloomy apprehensions to which recent quotations from the German newspapers have borne witness. On that account, if on no other, tho speech was worth making,' and its effect will be all the groater on account of the studied

caution with which British statesmen have hitherto spoken of tho general situation and outlook in tho war. No man is infallible, but the Secretary for .War speaks with high, authority, and in essentials his prediction receives such a backing from late events and developments in the war that no opening is left to the enemy Governments for effective retort. Though their aggregate power is still formidable, the Central Empires and their allies are faced in all theatres by the spectre of defeat, and the only question which remains visibly open is how long they aro capable of continuing a hopeless struggle.

As reports stand at time of writing, fighting has momentarily subsided on portion of the British front north of tho Somrae,. which yesterday was reported to be ablazo with battle, but in and about the villago of Pozieres, a great part of which is now in British hands, tho struggle continues with unabated violence. Apart from their advance in the Pozieres sector, tho attacking troops have made some headway towards Guillemont, further east, and have therefore made perceptible progress towards the reduction of an immensely important section of the enemy defences. Pozieres is about two miles east of the line on which the battle opened, and Guillemont is fivo miles further cast and a little south. This section of the front, therefore, runs almost cast and west, at an avorage distance of about five miles north of the Somme. Driving in tho enemy defences in which Pozieres and Guillemont are strong bastions, the attackers will gain a footing on the Thiopval plateau, oxtending north from Pozieres, and other high positions. Guillemont, on the east, 'is a hill position covering the junction of Combles and presents meantime an obstacle to tho eastward advance of both sections of the Allied force, where they join hands. The French are already in position south of Guillemont, and apparently further forward than the British in tho north., Tho British attacks are thus clearing tho way for a big extension of tho Allied wedge, both to the north" and east. If the Germans cannot stem the British assault on tho verge of the Thicpval plateau they are not likely to hold their ground when tho attackers have gained a footing on that elovation.

Similar considerations apply to the operations against Guillcmont furthor east. In the latest figbting on this lino tho British troops have mado important progress towards .tho reduction of an exceedingly strong barrier covering weaker positions in rear. Rapid progress, in tho circumstances, is not to bo expected, for th'o Gormans aro fighting with their backs to the wall, but the enemy already is definitely nearer to'a damaging defeat than when tho latest phaso of tho battle oponod a day or two ago. The process of tearing a great rent in the German front, through which tho Allies will bo able to drive with disastrous effect, is in visible operation, and tho reward in prospect is one which Vill justify even greater efforts than have yet been put forth.

German accounts of "tho latest fighting aro of no value and of littlo interest, except on account of an effort made to create tho impression that tho British Army is already hard put to it to find reserves to keep tho battlo going. Ono communique solemmly asserts that the attacks on tho ThiopvalGuillemont front were carried out by detachments from eleven. English divisions, "several of which' had been hastily brought from other fronts." _It is quite safe to say that implied suggestion that the British Commander-in-Chief is combing hTs front for reserves with which to press tho, offensive is completely at variance with tho truth. No fact is better attested than that British numbers aro only beginning to tell, and that Sir Douglas Haiq is in a position to very greatly extend tho present operations without imposing any undue strain upon his resources. On tho other hand, it is quite certain that tho Somme battle is making demands upon Germany's strength which she finds it desperately difficult to meet. Repeated counter-attacks by the onemy were a marked feature of the recent fighting, and it is evident that tho Gormans are maintaining at terrible cost tho_ stubborn resistance which makes British progress, for the time being, comparatively slow. # « « »

A detail indication of the enemy's failing strength is given in the capture by the French of a redoubt westward of Thiaumont, on tho flank of tho German wedge driven into the French line east of tho Mouse. There have been no German attacks of any importance in tho Verdun sector for some time, and the German public, though long deluded on tho subject, should by now bo able to view tho long struggle at Verdun in its true colours and perspective.

Vbrv little news from Russia is in hand at time of writing, but a further advance- on tho Lipa front, towards tho Leraberg railways, indicates that matters are going well in that quarter. In Armenia, also, tho'llussian forces are making steady headway-