PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2829, 21 July 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is probably true that the powerful German counter-attack on the British wedge north of the Somme as definitely bears witness to tlie success of the Allied offensive as the'progressive penetration of the enemy defences which up to the present has been the dominating feature of tho great Anglo-French enterprise. This opinion is not based inorely upon the fact that the enemy appears to have fared badly in his attack. Tho present failure of the enemy, indicated in the almost immediate loss of most of tho ground gained in the first vigour of his counter-attack, has its importance. But it is much more important that tho Germans, though they aro fighting an essentially defensive battlo on the Somme, have oeen compolle.d .to bring up heavy reinforcements—Sie Douglas Haig speaks of them as "very largo"— and incur tho sacrifices involved in a counter-stroko against an enemy concentrated for battle. Tho Germans have launched their counteroffensive at a rather late, stago in tho battle. Their first and sccond line defences on a fairly wide front have been captured by the British forces, and similar results have been achieved by* the French further south. The enemy thus had an ample motive for launching a coun-tor-offensive long ere now if tho necessary troops and artillery had been freely available. Tho postponement of the counter-offensive affords strong evidence that tho force required was not freely available, and it is a reasonable inference that the cnomy has boon forced to a coun-ter-offonsive bceauso his defences are wearing dangerously thin • in tho Somme scctor, and also that he has now_ effected tho neocssary concentration only at the cost of moro or jess seriously weakening other sections of his lino. With sufficient reserves in hand, the Germans would undoubtedly have tried to maintain tho second-line defences which have lallcn to tho Allies, or even the firstlino positions which tho latter have captured almost from end to end of tho front on which tho battle is being fought, instead of waiting to have their hand forced by the imminent danger of a more than local idifcastcr.

The Germans on the-Sommc front are apparently finding themselves iu the predicament in which they sought to place the French afc Verdun. Exactly what their aim was in the Verdun offensive has not been disclosed, but, generally speaking, they must have hoped either to break through tho French line to a success of decisive- importance, or to compel such a concentration in defence of Verdun as would have laid the Allies open to attack elsewhere. Strict economy in tho use of available resources constituted an essential element in the -tactics by which tho French defeated this project. It is now the turn of the enemy to fight a defensive battle, and in essential respects a comparison with Verdun already tells against him heavily and darkens his prospects. In more than four months of battle at Verdun, tho Germans hardly came within sight of decisive results, though their offensive was conducted with a reckless disregard of sacrifice which finds an absolute contrast in tho methodical tactics of the Allies in their present offensive. After less than three weeks of battle on the Sommc, the Allies are within plain.sight of a success which would undermine the- stability of a great part of the total German line. The Germans failed at Verdun, and did jiot succeed, as a result of their efforts in that field, in making any other section of tho) Allied liue vulnerable to assault. The Allies are succeeding on the Sommc, and it may now be added that by drawing additional Gorman troops to that front fchev are creating conditions which will lighten their task when the time comes to extend their offensive into areas at present undisturbed ex,copt by minor activities.

Just how rapidly events in tho Somme battle will react upon the general situation in the Western theatre remains to- bo seen, but already the idea that tho German front is all but impregnable and can Be economically defended against superior forces is definitely exploded. II". is established instead 'that defences which tho enemy intended to be impregpablo are incapable of withstanding persistent assault, and that his only method

of stemming for a time such an offensive as tho Anglo-French forccs "have developed on the Sommc 'front l is the costly one of launching a countcr-offensivo against au enemy more than prepared to meet him on. such terms. These are facts of decisive importance, and they hold out good promise for tho future, more particularly as tho Allied offensive is still at a very early stage "in its development.

The detail events arising thus far out of the German counter-stroke do "not tend to improve enomy prospects even temporarily. Attacking on north and south, tho apex of tho wedge which the British have thrust into their defences, tho Germans gained a brief tenure of tho outskirts of Longueval village and portion of Belville Wood, east of that place. Thoir own claim, that they captured both tho village and tho wood is contradicted by British official reports. The truth is that the enemy made more-limited gains, at a heavy cost in lives, and has already been dislodged from most of the ground which he won. On tho southern face of the wedge, where the British are working round tho strong hill position of Guillemont, a number of enemy attacks have completely failed. Up to the present the onemy is shown to have suffored heavy loss, with little more to set against it than the coincident and presumably much lighter losses suffered by tie British forces. The immediate suggestion . of the news, thcreforo, is that the enomy has not only been compelled to_ resort to extraordinary measures, including tho introduction of heavy, reinforcements, in his efforts to make hoad against the British offensive, but that these measures have failed. Possibly tho Germans may attempt to improve upon this performance. Given a sufficient concentration of men and artillery, the counter-of-fensive is bound to achieve some results, more particularly as the British have had little time in which to organise the defence of tho most advanced positions to which they have penetrated. That' tho German effort has thus far achieved such paltry results implies a most remarkable tribute to tho efficicncy with which the British offensive is being developed, but it will not be surprising if perseverance in tho counter-otfensive involves a certain of give-and-take fighting. It is tolerably certain, however, that any detail developments of this kind will be of minor importance in face of the plain proof afforded that the enemy is dubious, no doubt with good reason, about the security of his vital dofences on the Sommc front, and is able to meet the situation only by calls upon his general resouroes which promise to become increasingly hea\y and exhausting as time goos on, and is thus embarked on a course of action which gravely impairs his prospects of maintaining a sound defence on other sections of his front.

News from Russia is good, and largely speaks for itself. Only unofficial reports, at time of writing, tell of tho invasion of Hungary by Russian cavalry, but 1 if it is a fact that Russian cavalry have traversed tho Kirlibaba Pass, tho difficulties under which Austria is already labouring will bo heavily increased. In tho still moro important operations further north, in Galicia and South; orn Russia, ..matters aro evidently going well with tho Russians, but the situation is not made clear in its dotails by reports in hand at time of writing. ■ .

An extraordinary claim' is advanced in a Turkish commumque that an Italian forco of 6000 men has been captured in Tripoli by "Turkish volunteers." This is essentially a report which must await confirmation. If it has any foundation in fact, the Turks must havo organised in Tripoli a movement akin to the Sonussi rising, which was suppressed some months ago on tho western frontiers of Egypt. It must bo said, meantime, that tho story would look wildly improbable but'for the fact fchat.it is difficult to conceive any reasonable motive for inventing it. t Germany has resumod, without warning, the submarine war on merchantmen from which she desisted a few months ago at tho pressing instance of America. Thore is little detail news on the subject at time of writing, but one message, dated yesterday, states that a dozen vessels had been sunk in tho previous 24 hours. For the ,true explanation of Germany's policy in this matter, it is necessary to look beyond the inspired articles in Gorman newspapers which are extensively quoted to-day. The suggestion made by these journals is, briefly, that England, in tho policy exemplified in the abrogation of tho Declaration of London, has induced neutral countries adjoining the Central Empires to take up an unfriendly, and even hostile, attitude towards them. On top of this it is contended that the cessation of submarine warfare at the instance of the United States was conditional upon that country inducing England fco alter her methods of dealing with neutral trade! Germany, it. is suggested, will resume ruthless submarine warfaro because neutral countries have forfeited their title to consideration. That Germany savagely resents the present attitude of noutral countries need not for a moment be doubted, but the suggestion that she has abstained from submarine outrages out of consideration for these countries is, of course, transparently absurd. It is nearer the facts to Bay. that she temporarily suspended tho submarine warfare rather tlian faco a rupture with America, and one suggestion of the latest turn of events is that fear of a rupture with 'America no longer operates.

The truth seems to be that the party in Germany which favours a policy of prudence where America and other neutral countries arc concerned has been carried off its feet by the party of reckless extremists. The Imperial Chancellor, Here von Bethmann-Holmveg, favours tho policy of prudonce, and has championed the view that it would be unwiso to force the issue with America for the sake of continuing a campaign against maritime commerce which cannot achievc decisive results. The present development is 'therefore appropriately accompanied by suggestions that the Chancellor is about to be displaced from office in favour of Prince "Bui.ow. As a whole the position is complex, but there is justification for regarding tlio resumption of submarine piracy as a- definite symptom of increasing demoralisation and desperation in Germany, if tho arguments against inviting a rupture with America have lost force it is largely because Gormany is now so beset that a broach with America would not make her position much .worrse than it is already.

Some of the English newspapors go so far as to suggest that it would Be a short step for Germany from the sinking and seizure of neutral' vessels to the invasion of surrounding neutral countries, particularly Denmark, with a view to commandeering supplies. With Germany in her present circumstances and framo of mind it is necessary to keep an open mind regarding possibilities, but this suggestion seems to be extremo. Germany may face tB prospect of a diplomatic rupture, or even war, with America, in tho belief that the effect upon her military circumstances would be slight. It is another matter to suppose that she would deliberately add to her war burdens, by invading neighbouring neutral countries, even for the sake of obtaining supplies. The risk seems to neavily outweigh the possiblo advantages to bo gained. A movo against any of her neutral neighbours would be apt to throw them all into a common camp for their mutual defence, and there is also tho possibility that if she invaded Donmark or Holland, Germany might find herself opposed by Entente forces as well as those of tho neutral country invaded.