PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2816, 6 July 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

To appearance the plans of the Allies are working well. Further "detail successes are reported to-day in both the main theatres and on the Italian front, and of-these at least the continued French advance south of the Somme must be counted important. To the Germans it is a threat of magnitude, opening up indefinite dangers. Meantime, in the Western theatre and elsewhere the enemy seems to be as far as ever from taking any effective stop towards escape from his developing embarrassments. It is true that he has renewed the attack on Verdun, but if there is any possibility of this enterprise taking shape as a coun-ter-stroke likely to defeat or derange tho Allied offensive, the fact has yet to appear. At present it would rather seem that the Germans are throwing good money after had, an 3 this at a timo when the necessity of turning their resources to the best possible account is daily becoming clearer and more imperative. They have staked and lost very heavily at Verdun,_ and thus far they have some miles of devastated country to show for their outlay. That they should persevero in' the attack even when their own lino is being deeply penetrated on the Sommo argues continued faith in tho idea that tho heart of France is in some unexplained fashion to bo reached at or through Verdun. The only alternative is to suppose that they are afraid of tho effect that would bo' produced on German and foreign .opinion if they abandoned the attack without having something better to show for their outlay than they have now. Not a few observers have declared that Verdun is a" decisive battle. They do not mean, of course, that the war will end with the Battle of Verdun, but ffiat its main trend has been potently influenced, once and for all, by this historic conflict. It may vory well bo truo that Germany's present policy is largely influenced by tho hope's with which she opened the assault on Verdun, though those hopes seem now to be blasted. A gamblo may go so : ruinously, wrong that a retreat in the way of cutting the loss is impossible. #•• • •

It is at all events an outstanding, item in the -day's news that the assault on Verdun has been resumed, and that the Germans, after a number of costly failures, contrived to storm the devastated site of the Thiaumont defensive work, which is now for tho fourth time in their possession. For the moment 1 they have somewhat widened tho wedge thrust into the French lino east of tho Meuse, and thoy are reported to bo concentrating a tremendous bombardment on tho Damloup battery, south-east of Fort Vaxix. Apparently thoy intend to press the attack in full vigour. .It would be somewhat far-fetched to suppose that the continuation of the battle at Verdun is likely to seriously hamper the Allied offensivo plans. At tho moment the question is rather whether the Germans are not wasting strength at Verdun for lack ox which they are being penalised on other sections of the front. It is at least manifest that matters aro going badly against them in the Battle of the Somme, and that tho Allies are reaping advantages in that battle which seem unattainable to the enemy at Verdun.

The effect of tho latest news in hand is to sharpen the distinction already drawn between the reigning [conditions of the battle on that part of tho attacking front which extends north from the Sommo and on the remaining portion south of the river. Along tho front north of tlie river, most of which is occupied by British troops, tho Allies are either at a standstill in the ground they have won or progressing slowly by gradual methods of attack. Apart from the reduction of enemy strongholds liko the fortified village of La Boiselle, the most recent fighting i has resolved itself into a contest for advantage of local position. Before a full tido of battle can again develop out of theso conditions there must be such another bombardment as preceded the Allied assault. Whether iho Allies intend to quickly follow up their opening blow on this north-' ern section of the front we have no present means of knowing, but meanwhile the Frcnch are pressing forward on tho front south from tho river in a fashion which the enemy must find exceedingly disconcerting.

'AN intcresting explanation of the position reached south of tho Sommo is given by the London Times correspondent at Paris. At about tho rniddlo of the seven-mile front on which they are fighting, the French have, driven a wedge into the enemy's third line, and are a good threis miles ahead of their starting paint. Moro. than this, they have gained positions from which their artillery is able to dominate the enemy's extemporised supply Jines through the marshy valley of tho Somme. Their advance thus imminently threatens Poronne, a town standing on the north bank of tho Somme, three miles east of their present line. They are advancing in an angle of the river, Peronne marking tho point at which it turns west from its previously northerly course. For the time the* French have the river on their left, but it crosses their lino of advance about three miles further on. Like any other river, tho Somme is in itself a barrier, but a barrier only to be made good by a superior forco of artillery. The opinion is expressed by the Times correspondent that their developing success will enable tho French to gain the open country and compel -tho Gormans to evacuate Peronne. It is plain in any case that each forward movement effected by tho French on their present line accentuates conditions which the Germans are bound to regard as exceedingly dangerous.

Before the present battle opened the line of contact turned sharply, east and south from Albert to thb Sorame, and in the powerful efforts they nude in the early part of this year to dislodge the Allies from the river at Friso, tho Germans were undoubtedly intent upon eliminating the danger of just such an attack as is now being developed against their.Jinc from this vicinity. The striking feature of the position is that Lhe lino upon which tbc French arc advancing is roughly at right angles to that occupied by tho German northern armies.

The general direction of the line in Flanders and Northern France is north and south, and Peronne, the immediate French goal, is about ten miles further cast than this line at Albert. Thus, although they are fighting on an interior section of a continuous line, the French arc in effect working in upon an enemy Hank—tho flank of the German northern armies. Each mile gained by the French as-they are now advancing intensifies a state of affairs in which ponetration of the enemy's line would immediately expose his northern armies to attack in flank and rear, and place them at a terrible disadvantage. As yet, the French have coverod only half the distance which separated them 'from Peronne when the battle-open-ed, but even their present measuro of success suggests that the Germans would be wise to stiffen their defence on the Somme instead of squandering further battalions at Verdun.

Accounts of conditions, generally along the front show that tho Allies are still vigorously harassing the enemy outside the area of what is for the time being tho main battle. '.Raiding is being continued enterprisingly and with success by both' the French and British troops. Events in the air arc still more notable. remarkable achievement is implied in the announcement that not a singlo German aircraft has crossed the French lines since July 1, and that as a result the enemy is blinded. That exactly describes his condition until, ho breaks the air blockade. The other side of tho picturo is supplied in the fact that Allied aircraft are ranging far and wide over tho enemy's territory, and in a limited period have destroyed seven of 'his 'machines.

Events in tho Balkans serve as a reminder that it is necessary Eo keep the whole map of the war in view, in order to gauge the progress of events with some approach to accuracy. The air-raid on the capital ,of Bulgaria- is suggestive, arid very possibly portends more important developments. At the sarno timo, there are indications that Rumania is making ready to cast aside tho cloak of neutrality and throw in hor lot with the >Allies. News on this point is necessarily something less than conclusivo for the timo boing, but there is no reason tc> doubt that Rumania is impressed by the rising power and success of the Allies in East and West, and is likely to frame her policy accordingly. There is no similarity between conditions to-day and those which existed earlier in the war, when the intervention of some of tho Balkan States might have saved Serbia and made good a temporary weakness in the Allied organisation. Rumania may be expected to dcclaro lor tho Allies, not because her adhesion would assist them—though it would assist them in a material degree—but _ becauso her interests lie in that direction. She has an opportunity of considerably extending her frontiers without incurring >my serious risk, and it is unlikely that sho will neglect the opportunity. As matters stand the Allies are in forfco at Salonika, and in a position to attack Bulgaria under reasonably advantageous conditions. With Rumania as an ally thoy' should be able to speedily overwhelm Bulgaria, and prooeed to an invasion ■of Hungary, which would heavily increase the already increasing pressure bearing on the Central .Empires. There is nob much detail news from Russia at time of writing, but as far as it goes the news is definite, and shows that the Russians are much more than holding 'their own in an increasing, stir of battle. Baranovitchi, whero the Russians on Monday captured over 2000 prisoners and eleven guns, is a railway centre north of the Pripet marshes, which divide the northern and southern sections of the front.

j Captain*Persius, a German naval writer of official or semi-official standing, threatens an initiation of now.and reckless submarine warfare as a measuro of reprisal against the recent decision of the Allies to abandon the remaining provisions of the Declaration of London—that is to say, to increase tho stringency of their blockado of Germany. The motive alleged by Captain Persius is not perhaps the real one, but a resumption-of tho German submarine campaign against merchantmen 'is admittedly a possibility to be faced. _ The'sudden decline in the submarine piracy from tho high level it attained in March and April last calls for explanation, and no better explanation is available at tho_ moment than that tho Germans desisted out of a fear that to continuo would mean war with America. Tho destruction of submarines, though it was no doubt heavy when the _ campaign was at its hoight, will nob alone acoount for the sudden fall almost to zero which has been witnessed. The view is accepted by Mr. A. H. Pollen, the well-known naval writer, that fear of war with Amorica accounts for the sudden break in German policy, and he argues further, and with some show of reason, that this must be regarded as a respite, and not as permanent rolicf from piratical attacks. At any moment, he remarks; tho internal condition of Germany may mako the position of tho Kaiser desperate. ' And when that happens no fear of America will stand in the way of more furious assaults than ever on seaborne commerce. The threats of Captain Persius suggest that Mr. Pollen iias gauged tho situation accurately.