PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2803, 22 June 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is a possible inference as news stands that the Russians havo begun another powerful forward sweep in that part of Southern Russia. between Lusk and Kovel,, which constitutes for the time being the most critical- section of the southern front. At time of writing there is no news of events on tho direct approach to ICovel—that is to say, on tho railway which approaches it from Lusk—but tho Russians.aro on the move to the north, where their line until now has remained stationary, or nearly so, along the lino of the River Styr, while the offensive has been making, progress elsewhere. Tho success reported today, which enabled the Russians to advance considerably to tho westward of Kolki, on the Styr, was won on that section of the southern front which closely approaches the Pripet Marshes. No doubt tho Russians will follow up their forward movement in this sector by another thrust further south, on the direct approach to Kovel. South of the Lusk-Kovel railway further heavy fighting l has occurred. It did not lead apparently to any material Russian advance, but heavy attacks by the enemy were broken. Hero the Russians are no doubt content for the time to maintain the ground they have won, pending developments further north. Tlioy are already established in positions due south of Kovel, whereas north of that place their line still trends far back to the east. Progress in the north, therefore, very probably portends another move in the main attack on Kovel, from • which place, as information stands at the moment, the Russians are still separated by a distance of twenty miles. General accounts of _ the offensive also give an' impression that Russian activity is again upon a rising scaile. The Austrians in Bukowina aro retreating in disorder, and the Russians have now occupied towns on the River Sereth, a dozen miles and more south of tho Pruth. This, of course, does not mark the limits of their pursuit, which is being continued energetically.

All the later news of the Russian offensive is good, with the exception of some enemy reports whioh, on comparison with tnoso issued from Petrograd, will be seen to contain at least an admixture of falsehood. The best news of all is that the Austrian Army, retreating south in 'Bukowina from the Czernowitz area, has been cut in half by the pursuing Russians. The army as a whole was already isolated from the Austrian main body north of the Pruth, and now it has been cut into two portions, one of which is being driven towards the Carpathians while the other is near the Rumanian frontier and presumably stands in imminent danger of being enveloped or of being forced to seek an asylum, and internment, in Rumania. Incidentally, the circumstances seem to afford Rumania an admirable opportunity of making an effective entry as a belligerent, in circumstances advantageous both lo herself and to Russia.

No important change is reported at Verdun, though the Germans have again been heavily defeated in attacks on the northern front. It will be noticed that CoLONEr/'Repington speaks of the French being justly proud of their feat in-hold-ing the Germans in an unfavourable position on the Meitse, and giving tiie Allies time to complete their preparations. This gives more than usually pointed.expression to a view that lias been freely taken by Allied commentators for some time past. Not a few articles were written in the early part of May from the text, 'that the Battle of Verdun had ended

in a French victory. Fort Vaux has since passed to the enemy, and he has made slight gains on other sections of the Verdun front, but this does not invalidate tho claim that the French had won a victory in May. Indeed, in essentials, the fate of the battle was decided as soon as it became manifest that the Germans had failed to win by a sudden, powerful effort, the spectacular succcss on which their hopes were set. By the defence which destroyed these hopes the French won a victory in tho truest sense of the word. The 'importance of the French achievement is in no way diminished by tho fact that the enemy has proceeded from his failure to gnaw his way very slowly into the French line, fighting all the time at a disadvantage, and increasing instead of reducing the odds against him.

. It is a common and not unfounded complaint that too little is heard of events on tho British front, and that tho official reports issued from day to day arc dry and inadequate. The brief cxtract from an official review, apparently of French authorship, which is cabled to-day, perhaps represents a belated and partial attempt to meet tho demand thus expressed. It gives, at all events,- a more comprehensive account of the conditions reigning on the battle-front than the daily official reports, and is welcome and timely in its recognition that even now the British Army is playing a part only less strenuous and exacting than that of the Frenoh in their heroic stand at Verdun. The timo has gone by when the new British Army oould be regarded as an assemblage of raw levies serving an apprenticeship to war. Though our troops have not for some time been granted action on such a sca'lo as has fallen to the lot of tho French at Verdun, .a very large proportion of them are tested and war-hard-ened in a fashion that leaves no room for doubt as to their quality, and those who know them best are most confident of their ability to rise gallantly to every demand the war can impose. For the time being it is the British Army's thankless task to .fight an unending battle, and yet remain in leash, but jihe timo is perhaps not distant when it will have more satisfying work to do. .

Reports from Italy imply that tho tide has very definitely turned on the Trentino front. The chief fact 'brought out is that storms and bad weather are somewhat hampering tho Italian counter-offensive, and the suggestion is that but for these conditions it would be telling upon the enemy with increasing weight. Active artillery fighting on the Isonzo line—where the Italians havo throughout had the best prospect of launching an effective invasion—indicates that the possibility of battle in that quarter has by no means disappeared as a result of the changed conditions on the Trentino front.

Colonel Repinqton, who is at prosont in Northern Prance, finds that confidence in the Allied prospects in the 1916 campaign prevails increasingly amongst tho best informed. This feeling he evidently shares, and he justifies his opinion by a general review of tho .war situation which largely speaks for itself. It should be noted, however, that the, facts, emphasised by Colonel Repington as indicating that the enemy is seriously at a, loss for reserves are much more positive' evidence on this point than until recently was available. Attempts to arrive at the decline in the enemy's strength by statistical calculation based upon figures of population and estimates of the losses he haß suffered are somewhat hopeless, and the results are apt to be unconvincing. For instance, tho French official estimate that Germany's permanent losses to a recent stage of the 1 war averaged 200,000 men a month has been challenged by some authorities as below the mark, and by others as absurdly high. On the basis of tho French estimate, it was computed that at the beginning of 1916 the' available German re serves, including the 1917 classes, did not exceed 800,000 men, but it was suggested that the extension of the age-limit to 54 might yield another 800,000, and that a further 100,000 men might -be withdrawn from indispensable industries. This would mean that Germany now has reserves to the number of about half a million, including a large number of men who are too old to be come efficient soldiers. To this, as. a final reserve, would be added half a million youthc. of the 1918 contingent, said to be now in the depots. On the other hand, "A Russian Officer," writing in the Morning Post on April 24, put the possible German reserves at that time, on the basis of Russian figures, at not less than three million. This number is considered by the military correspondent of the Morning Post to bo probably nearer the mark than tho French estimate, while other authorities hold, as has been said, that tho French estimate of the enemy's losses errs, if anything, on the side of moderation.

Where there is such a divergence of expert opinion it seems hopeless to arrive at the truth otherwise than by the practical test which is now being applied. The shortage of both German and Austrian reserves implied in the failure to stop the Russian drive speaks for itself. It is convincing evidence as far as it goes, and will become conclusive if the Russians continue to retain the upper hand. The non-appear-ance of new German formations, while the Allies, with the exception perhaps of France, are considerably enlarging their forces in tho field, is also noteworthy. Perhaps the most significant indication of all, next to that afforded by fcho' sweeping Russian successes, resides in tho fact mentioned by Colonel Repington that many of the prisoners recently captured by tho French are of the 1917 contingent, lads of 18, hastily turned out of the depots after only three months' training. This certainly suggests a shortage of good reserves, and conditions reasonably favourable for an Allied general offensive. Germany, ■no doubt, still has a considerable number of elderly men to draw upon, but these will, hardly enable her to make head against the growing power of her enemies if as deep inroads have been made upon her really effective reserves as the facts concerning tho 1917 contingent indicate.

That the progressive exhaustion of German and Austrian reserves is a dominating fact in the war does not, .of course, mean that the Allies can be expected to progress towards victory only at a rate corresponding to the decline in the enemy's numbers. To the. Allies

the gradual weakening of the enemy, while their own power, in the aggregate, continues to expand, will bring groat, anl increasing opportunities. Attempting to hold their present fronts with numbers no longer adequate, the Germans would be inviting disaster. . It may bo some timo yet before they are reduced to this condition, but already there is a very fair prospect that killing' pressure may presently bo brought to bear upon Austria. Tho struggle on the Russian southern front provides an immediate test. A continuation of the Russian success, notably in tho contest' for Kovel, would establish tho fact that Germany is no longer able to render effectual aid to her ally, and that should be for Austria the beginning of the end. At the moment, howover, it is rather in the West than in tho East that the Allies may be expected to give the next great demonstration of their rising power if matters have developed as far as is thought by Colonel Repington and the authorities he quotes.