PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2801, 20 June 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

* CZEENOWITZ is perhaps the most important prize which has thus far rewarded the Russians in the offensive they arc still developing with brilliant success. When the offensive opened, sixteen days ago, the view was taken, justly enough as information. then stood, that Czernowitz was probably the immediate goal at which the Russians aimed, and that its capture would mark a definite stage in the offensive. If this estimate has been to some extent upset, it is because the. magnitude'of the Russian enterprise was not at first suspcctcd or realised. Instead of setting themselves only to improve their position on the south-

ern front ,bv levering the enemy away from the frontier of Rumania and mastering some vantage points for a later, advance on tho front fur'ther north, the Russian armies arc already threatening Lemberg and Kovel, and the area- of decisive conflict promises to rapidly extend. All vital points on nearly one-half of tho Eastern front are ablaze with battle, and on the remaining sections the Russians -have lately demonstrated in a manner suggestive of the tremendous striking power they are still holding in reserve. l The capture of Ozcrnowitz thus figures as a detail in an-expanding onterpriso of enormous scope, but it is not on that account any, less important than it formerly seemed. It is a great prize, but there are now oven greater prizes in prospect. ..

The Russian' capturo is important in the first place, becauso it makes inevitable an extended retreat and the evacuation -of a considerable amount of territory by the Austrian southern armies. By this retreat the enemy loses contact with a section of the frontier of Rumania on which that oountry is not favourably circumstanced to resist attack. Not the least important outcome of the Russian victory 'at Czernowitz and its incidental consequences is that it relieves Rumania of an intimidating threat, and affords her an open opportunity ,of deciding whether she will side with the Allies in the war, in the hope of extending her frontiers, or maintain the neutrality to which she has hitherto adhered. There is no need to emphasise the'further eVidence M'hich tho fall of Gzcrnowitz affords of the power that now resides in the Russian armies, because the whole lesson of tho that, they are now strong enough to break with shattering effect into the enemy's organisation'on a fronton which ho had exhausted his available opportunities in tho effort to establish asecuro defence. The local Russian success was made easier by the deop and extended penetration of tho enemy's line further north, but even from the incomplete accounts as yet in hand it may be judged that tho approaches to Czernowitz havo .witnessed one of the heaviest and most desperately-contested battles of tho offensive to date. The placo was defended by powerful field fortifications, and, though the Russians had mastered some of the outer defences in January, and gained a footing on the plateau north-east of Czernowitz, .they were then still.eight miles short of their goal.

A glance at the map will -assist a,n understanding of the strategic importance of Czernowitz in relation both to the existing campaign and tho possiblo action of Rumania. It stands on the south bank of tho Pruth, near the north-eastern corner of the crownland of Bukowina, an area of just over 4000 square miles of territory, which dips south between the Rumanian frontier on the east and the Carpathians on the west. . In existing circumstances possession oi Czernowitz is likely to carry, with it possession of nearly the whole of tho extensive crownland of which it is the capital. This mainly for the reason that it commands most of the railways which penetrate the middle and southcrnextent of Bukowina. With tho Russians moving, along the main railway which approaches Czerno\yitz from the west, and according to recent reports a'considerable'portion of this line is already in their hands, Austrian forces operating in Bukowina would ; be in an exposed and dangerous situation, without convenient lines of supply and retreat. News that the Russians aro "briskly pursuing the Austrians towards the Carpathians, which border Bukowina on the west and south-west, lis therefore a natural sequel to the capture of tho capital of tho crownland. There is an immediate prospect of the enemy being driven into tho-mountains, and incidentally being swept completely away from the north-western frontier of Rumania, Tho Russians also may bo expected to move presently against'the junction of Kolomea, in north-western Bukowina. Seizing this centre of communications they would complete the expulsion of the enemy from the crownland, and take a further important step in the movement which is thrusting the enemy westward through Galicia, and for the time Tieing threatens Leiubei'g.

Since her decision must soon become apparent, speculation as to what Rumania is likely to do would be futile. But it may be recalled that competent authorities, amongst others the Russian Foreign Minister, have expressed the opinion that Rumania/will throw in her lot with the Allies when the opportune moment arrives. This opinion has received some colour from the policy Rumania has followed, and from the expressions of.a section of her public men , unhampered by the restraints of office. The Primo Minister, M. Bratianu, has throughout been guardedly non-committal, but M. Take Jonescu, an Opposition ileader with a considerable following, is an .exponent of Allied aims and of the principles for which tho Allies are fighting of whom' any Allied country might be proud, and an advocate of Rumanian intervention. The event may prove that he has anticipated, arid not run counter to, the decision of his countrymen. Rumania, at all events, is in a situation in which a sphinx-liko attitude will not much longer avail. She has the option of co-operating with the Allies in the _subjection of Bulgaria, and rendering material servicc in assisting to open a new gateway of invasion through tho Balkans into Hungary. It is equally open to her to remain neutral, but in that case she would abandon her aspirations in regard to Transylvania and other territories of tho Dual Monarchy. Possibly the promise of territorial gains in Bukowina, which has a large Rumanian population, may lie utilised in influencing Rumania's decision. There may be a compromise to be struck in regard to territory, for as reports go Rumania's demands hitherto have not been light, but on all grounds her interests seem to lie with tho Allies. Amongst other factors visible, the prospect of a new regime at Constantinople has a distinct bearing upon the future prospects of Rumania's export trade.

Apart from tho event which commands first attention to-day, the Russians are at various points pressing their offensive with notable success. Of one area, the approaches' to Kovel, a German report declares .that General von Linsingen captured 3500 Russian prisoners. Whether this is true or not—it it! possible that a Russian worked too far ahead of tho main advance and was cut off—the Russians report highly successful fighting in tho samo locality. They state that

they ropulsed a furious German attack on the north bank of the River Stochod, which is crossed by the Lusk—Kovel railway at a distance of 23 miles from the latter place. The Russians are across the Stochod, and the details supplied show that their success was decisive, and that the fighting was sufficiently open to enable tho Cossacks to make a damaging charge on tho enemy's flank. It is apparently on this section of the front that-tho Russian General "Kaledine captured in the first ten days of tho offensive over 70,000 prisoners. Many of these are no doubt included in the total of over 150,000 prisoners which was announced a few days ago, but the total haul of prisoners has by this timo. been materially -increased by captures on the approaches to Kovel and elsewhere!

There is every reason to believe that the advance on Kovel is She most essentially important enteip rise in which tho Russians are for the time being engaged. The runverging attacks on Lembcrg also promise well, and Lemberg, as the centre of a very extensive railway system, commands a wide area of Galicia, but -these attacks may not be driven fully homo'for some little time. Tho Russians' are now only about 20 miles away from Kovel, and its capture would lead to instant results. This railway junction situated about 50 miles north of the Galieian frontier, enables the enemy, as matters stand, to rapidly distribute strength along his southern front. It is much the most,convenient gateway 'for such reinforcements as Germany may contribute to stiffen the Austrian resistance. If tho Russians reach Kovel they will take an important step towards dividing the enemy forces, and very seriously hamper the Austro-Ger-man lateral communications. Kovel being gone, the enemy's hopes of reaching a secure front on which to check or stem the Russian advance will be indefinitely postponed. - The capture of Kovel would, of course, very materially affect operations both to tho north and south, and it is probable that tho Russians aro t pressing forward to the capture as a preliminary to, tho full development of their widely-extended converging movement against Lemberg.

Suggestions in the news that a gcnoral Allied offensive is imminent oall for little other comment than that they wear a distinct air of probability. If tho storm predicted is in fact a-Bout to 'burst, however, it has not yet burst in the Western theatro. Sir Douglas Haig reports a state of affairs as nearly approaching calm, as tho conditions of the war now permit. At Verdun the Germans ha,vo' again failed' in attempts to approach the Fleury ravine from tho north, t Very notable successes by Allied airmen are chronicled, in combats which appear lo have occurred ' mostly' over- the enemy's lines. The vital bearing of these events upon tho great developments maturing is no doubt generally appreciated. Superiority in tho air, carrying with it full and free observation of tho enemy's dispositions and the denial of a similar privilege to the enemy, is of priceless value at any time, and above afl when such conflicts as are now predicted are imminent i * * » '

Official news from Italy now confirms the view- that the Austrians are striving for a decision on the Trentino front, and it is definitely stated that they have not as yet transferred any forces from t.nis front to Galicia. .along with this there are further assurances that "the enemy is being firmly and successfully met.. Holding the Austrians on their main attacking front, the Italians have also opened a counter-offensive, into which they have probably not yet thrown anything like their frill weight, but in which they are ■ steadily gaining ground. As time goes on the Austrian enterprise appears in an increasingly hopeless light, and tho situation as it stands goes far to atone for the disturbance of the Italian plans ;which the first violence of the enemy onslaught occasioned. The position in a nutshell ■seems to be that the Austrians are definitely held on their immediate attacking front, and are threatened on either wing. They are probably throwing away strength without prospect of compensating gain, and the Italians meantime are fighting under as favourable circumstances as thoy can hope to command for some time to come.