PROGRESS OF THE WAR
While the Russians are still victoriously developing the great attack which ha-s now been under way for ten days, changes and portents of impending chango are reported in the Western and the Italian theatres. From the latter area there comes tho welcome-news that Austrian attacks on the Trentino front are weakening, and that the Italians are fighting with rising prospects, and recently have inflicted heavy loss upon tho enemy. There are. more arresting reports regarding the Western front. Newspapers in Holland and correspondents at tho front seem to share the opinion that tho Germans are making ready for a powerful attack on the British line— an attack on the Verdun scale. It may be thought that late events on tho southern section of the Eastern front and tho heroic endurance of the French at Verdun supply tho Germans with potent- reasons for abstaining from action on these lines,_ but it is after all an open question whether they havo any real freedom of choice; whether,_ in fact, there is any other logical \or possible development of the war policy to which they stand committed than a continuation and ex-' tension of the tactics they havo adopted at "Verdun. No reason appears for dissenting from the contention of one correspondent that if the Germans develop an attack on the Verdun scalo against the British front, at Ypres or elsewhere, "they will be_ playing our tactical game." But since they know that a long-continued contest must turn against them in the end, it is possible they may regard violent action, though it is accompanied by deadly risks, and involves a ruinous present sacrifice, as the best alternative in sight. # ♦ # %
For the time b/sing, however, the predictions of an assault upon the British line are unsupported by official news. Conditions on the British front are described, at time of writing, as normal. At Verdun the Germans have made further heavy, but unsuccessful and costly, attacks on tho northern front west oE Douaumont. and the whole of this front west from Fort Vaux is under intense bombardment. Correspondents speak of a two-days' stagna-. tion in the attack at Verdun as supporting the theory that'the Germans are about to make an attempt upon the British front in Flanders, but the "stagnation" seems to have been nothing more than one of the partial lulls which have necessarily been a constant feature of the battle. Factors of supply in themselves make it impossible to unremittingly press the assault at its maximum intensity, and intervals of diminished activity arc inevitable.- Certainly the conditions reported at tho moment at Verdun arc very far removed from stagnation.
It may seem strange that, with the tide 6f the war running so strongly against the Central Powers, the possibility of Germany being allowed to strike the next great blow of the war should be considered, but it is'not unlikely that the calculated policy, of the Allies, and
Germany's desperation, may equally tend to this development. Tho Allies, it clear enough, aro under no temptation to attempt an early advance from their present lino in the Western theatre, while the enemy is prepared to persevero in his present tactics._ At bottom, the task of tho Allies is to kill so many Germans that Germany will be unable to continue the war. So long as Germany adheres to offensive tactics this end will be better served on tho present lino than it would be in ai? advance towards tho German frontiers. If Germany presently decides to abandon the assault on Verdun, and desists from an attack on the British front, tho Allies may be compelled to take tho offensive in order to prevent the enemy imposing undue pressure oh. Russia. But no such necessity exists while the enemy continues, 'not only* I to hold his long Western line, but | to squander the lives of his soldiers I in vain efforts to win a decision over armies that surpass his own in power. Under these conditions there is clear profit to the Allies in playing the waiting game which the French have played, and are playing, so splendidly at Verdun. It is precisely because the outlook of the enemy is dark and empty of promise that he may conceivably try some such desperate venture as ho is unofficially reported to meditate against the British front. The possibility .is consistent with the major facts of the war as they aro visible. The prediction, therefore, is not necessarily invalidated by the absence from the official communiques of any hint of such an .intention on the part of the enemy—tho communir/ves, indeed, never supply such hints, except inferentially—nor by such details of news as have told .recently of the transfer of German reserves from the region of the British front to Verdun. **0 ' * In one very important respect the fact that the Allies arc possibly committed to a prolonged continuance of the war of positions in the Western theatre intensifies the value , and effect of tho telling blow struck by the Russian southern armies. The achievement of the Russians has been chiefly considered hitherto in its immediate character as a military operation,, costing the enemy heavily in men and. material, and transforming what he thought was a secure defensive front into a vagged and broken line which he will defend at increasing effort and uost. But to look at the matter oaly in this, aspect would be to take much too narrow a view. In addition to its immediate military effect, the-moral and political effect of the Russian blow will be potent and far-reaching; alike in Allied, neutral, and enemy countries. To the Allies of Russia it is a splendidly heartening and cheering thing to know that she is capable of such a blow. The French and British troops, and especially those of the former who are fighting at Verdun, are perhaps less in need of such comfort and inspiration as the Russian victory affords than their civilian fellow-citizens. The soldiers, or many of them, know that the _ heroic stand 'at Verdun is assisting as definitely to bring tho Germans to ultimate defeat as, if the Allied armies were sweeping for-, ward to the Rhine. They know, too, that their time to advance will come. But the conditions prevailing in tho Western theatre are bound to give rise to a certain amount of . strain in Allied coun : tries which the late achievements of the-Russians will tend to ease and dispel.
_ More than this, what the Russians have will assist very notably to set the facts of the war before the whole world in true light and perspective. It is Germany's interest and aim to create and main- , tain an impression that because the Western Allies choose to stand on the defensive and receive her assaults, they are helpless and incapableof adopting any more vigorous policy. This distortion of facts has ucen used to support the courage_ of the German population, and to influence neutrals. The forward sweep of the Russian armies has spoiled the German picture, and we may hold with some confidence that it will never be restored. The truth is now visible and manifest. Germany is seen on one main front vainly hurling her columns of assault against superior armies—for the British, and - Belgian armies" and the Russian reinforcements lately introduced must be considered as one great and united force—while on the other main front Austro-German armies have broken in disastrous rout before the Russian onset. It is not only the power of tho Russians that has been demonstrated, for assuredly .they could have struck no such blow had not so great a, proportion of the enemy's strength been tied doivn to the Western theatre. The Russian success is notable, not as a local achievement only, but as indicative | of the general power and standing of the.Allies. In that, its essential aspect, it will have its duo cffect in enemy and neutral countries as well as in the countries of the Allies.
Though tlicy are reported to have encountered a slight set-back on one advanced section of their attacking front, the Russians are shown to bo pressing their offensive with undiminished vigour. Interest ccntrcs at the moment in tho attack which is closing in on Czernowitz, the capital of Bukowina, and the pillar of tho enemy's dcfcncc, where his line extends to the frontier of Rumania. Unfortunately this section of tho operations is not yet clearly outlined, but two details stand out. On Sunday the Russians attacked tho enemy bridgehead at Zaleshchyki, on the Dniester (25 miles north of Czernowitz), apparently with success, though this is not stated in so many words. Also fighting has begun for tho suburbs of Czernowitz. This at least is definite. In January the Russians stormed and captured trenches near Rarantche. a village situated eight miles north-east oi Czernowitz, on I tho plateau which exte'nds northeast from that place between tho Pruth and one of its tributaries. At this point, with a footing on the plateau, the Russians apparently remained until the present offensive opened. Their position favoured a further advance, since the enemy, though established in strong defences, was in danger of being forced back upon the Pruth. The reference in current reports to the suburbs of Czernowitz indicates that the Russians have progressed at least some miles towards their goal. It is noteworthy that although some montion is made of Germans on different sections of the front, all the prisoners recently captured on the approaches to Czernowitz were Hungarians. In January there were strong German forces at Czernowitz, but apparently they have been withdrawn. I
The state of affairs indicated at Czernowitz gives added point and significance to reports that excitement runs high in Rumania, and that the Bulgarians are taking measures on their northern frontier, as_ if apprehending attack. It is said that they have closed the frontier, and are hurriedly throwing up defences. The prospect of a Russian capture of Czernowitz and occupation of Bukowina certainly increases the likelihood of Rumania entering the war. If she makes the plungo the problems of the Allies in_ the Balkans will be greatly simplified in spite of any precautions that Bulgaria may take. Rumania's natural policy would be to stand on the defensive at first on that section of her western frontier not covered by the Russians, and concentrate against the Bulgarians in co-operation with the Allied army based on Salonika.
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Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2796, 14 June 1916, Page 4
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1,735PROGRESS OF THE WAR Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2796, 14 June 1916, Page 4
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