PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2784, 31 May 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A German wireless message alleging that one and a half million Germans, who .havo been wounded and are now restored to health, will presontly roturn to the front, may bo set down as a very clumsy fabrication. It can only be intended to deceive ill-informed people in Germany and abroad with the idea of comforting or disheartening them as the case may be. The claim that 85 per cent, of the German wounded are so restored in nino months as to bo fit for the most arduous duties is, of course, absurd. It is true that a very large percentage of wounded men admitted to hospital in these days are discharged more or less cured, but to be curcd is one thing, and to be fit for military service is another. Me. Hilaiee Belloc, with much statistical and comparative material to work upon, estimates that the proportion of wounded so restored as to bo fit for' further service in the field cannot at the outside exceed 40 per cent. The 85 per cent, named by the Germans must include men who are maimed and othcrwiso quite unfit for further eeryice. Apart from such details, however, tho German announcement is an obvious fabrication in its assumption that restored wounded men have been allowed . to accumulate over a long period until their numbors havo reached the impressive total of a million and a half. Colossal as the German losses have been, this total must include all or nearly all tho German wounded who have recovered from the effects of their wounds during tho whole course of tho war. It is hardly necessary to point out that no such immense reservo can possibly have accumulated in this way.' With Geras with other belligerents, there is a constant stream of woundod soldiers, passing into the hospitals, and a smaller stream of men discharged as fit for duty returning ,to the front. The process is continuous, and does not admit of any such accumulation ,as Germany claims

Mr. Belloc has recently gone very painstakingly into the' question of Germany's war losses and remaining man-power, and has been granted exceptional facilities by the military, authorities in France in pursuing his investigation. By calculations much too extended and ramified to be traversed here, he arrives at the conclusion that Germany's total permanent losses up to tho end of December last were not far short of four millions'. By this time, if Mr. Belloc's careful computation is approximately accurate, Germany's permanent losses must have reached, or closely approached, tho terrible total of four and a half millions. German troops in the field and engaged in auxiliary services number between 3,500,000 and 4,000,000. Mr. Belloc's figures should, therefore, mean that Germany is incapable of maintaining her present numerical strength for many months longer, even when account is taken of tho youthful 1916 and 1917 classes sho has called up in advance of the normal recruiting under her .conscript system. This question of German numbers has a vital bearing upon tho fate and duration of the war, but only time and events will make the facte manifest. The rising tide of conflict at Verdun and elsewhere should presently afford an index of Germany's remaining strength which will finally and definitely supersedo speculation on the subjcct.

Some general observations upon the. course of the war, which are cabled to-day, go to show that the idea, is widely held that Germany is fighting within plain sight of 'the end of her resources in men—in sight that is of the exhaustion of the reserves which will enable hor to maintain her armies at their present strength. Even so, however, there is- still a margin to be passed before Germany reaches this point of exhaustion, and" there , is no possible justification for' a belief that tho Allies will reach a position of overwhelming superiority by an easy and natural transition. Tho danger of Germany being able to strike a deadly blow at the Allies is steadily receding, but the danger still exists that she may bo able to so hamper and impede their united action as to materially prolong the war and gain time in which to develop her intrigues for an inconclusive peace. Much that bears vitally upon these issues is completely hidden from view at the present stage. It is certainly not true that in the currentphase of tho struggle matters are going all one way. Verdun seems destined to be a grave of Gorman hopes, but events in Italy furnish an item to he entered on the other side of the account, and the actual strength of Eussia is an unknown quantity. Only the test of battle will determine whether she is now in a condition to take a full part in a great_concerted assault upon the Germanic combination. As tho war stands the most hopeful fact in sight is that the opinion seems to bo gaining ground that- the Allies are about to abandon a waiting defensive policy for one of aggression. The latest hint on the subject is given by Mr. Lloyd George in his request, to which British Labour representatives have agreed, that tho munitions workers should postpone their Whitsuntide holidays until the end of July. That the "Minister of Munitions has made this request merely in order to postpone a loss of time in the production of war supplies seems improbable. It is more likely that he anticipates such developments in the war by tho I end of July as would make any slackening in tho production of I munitions unthinkable.

The point of essential interest in the nows regarding Verdun is that tho French are shown to be still firmly established on the line of positions west of the Meuse in which Hort Homme is an important element. A semi-official message ipeaks of a lull in the enemy assault, but the latest communiques report violent attacks on Hill 304, west of Movt Homme. These were decisively checked. Further east, the Germans taptured an advanced trench north-west of Cumicres. This means somo slight progress towards the eastern flank of Mort Homme, but the enemy success, such as it is, has been gained in a locality has recently witnessed a certain' amount of give and take.

With matters in this state at Verdun there is news of a stir of activity at various points, and notably of numerous encounters between the hostile airmen. On the British front an exceptional intensity of bombardment is reported. Symptoms are in fact abundant that the prevailing state is one of extreme tension wnich may at any time give riso to a new blaze of conflict. Upon, this point there was a highly significant report the other day that five German divisions had been transferred from before the British lines to Verdun. _ It seems not unlikely that a decisive test:may presently be applied to this and other reports of a like character.

No more hopeful opinion can be based upon the latest reports in hand from the Italian theatre than that the struggle is assuming a stationary character in tho areas into which their forward drive has carried tho Austrians. At the' moment Austrian and Italian reports seem to be complementary. The Italians report that they have bloodily repulsed attacks obstinately pressed by the enemy in tho Lagarina Valley, on tho lino of the Adige. This, it is to bo remembered, is the main highWay from tho Trentino into Italy. The check offered to the enemy, even assuming that his present purpose is limited, is therefore. to be reckoned important. Further cast, on tho Asiago plateau, the' Italians state fcey are consolidating defensive positions in faco of the Austrian assault. The Austrians, on their part, lay claim to some detail successes in the intermediate area, and north of the town of Asiago. A possibility appears, as stated, that the conflict may settle down the area now reached until tho Italians are ready to deliver the counter-stroke to which they seem to be inovitably committed. That tho Austrians will attempt an extended invasion of Italy does not seem more likely as time goes on. They have a very. real advantage now, and would risk it, and much more in addition, if they attempted to force a general engagement comparatively in the open. * • * *

A veritable net has been spread •about German East Africa, and tho process of drawing tho net seems to be proceeding apace. The main attack is being driven into the German territory from the north, and tho occupation of Same and places further south means that about a third of the length of the most northerly of the German railways is now in British hands. The longer railway, which runs right across tho colony from the sea to Lake Tanganyika, is as yet untouched, but British mount-i ed troops aro within ninety milos of it on the north- The railway is now threatened from-a new quarter by the advance of a British force northward from the two hundred milo frontier of Rhodesia and Nyassaland, which connects the southern end of Lake Tanganyika with the northern end of Lake Nyassa. At tho samo time, the Germans are held in check on the west by the Belgians, and on the south-east by the Portuguese. They have no way of escape, and their defeat would bo very speedily accomplished hut that great areas of wild country have to be traversed by the invading forces. As it is, the campaign is developing methodically, and while the Germans as a- whole are enclosed, important sections of their strength seem to bo already irrevocably cut off from the main railway, bisecting the colony, on which they are expected to make their final stand.

. Nothing is added at time of writing to the story of tho Bulgar invasion of Greece, but accounts are given of popular demonstrations in Salonika which may possibly, perhaps not probably, bs the precursor of events tending to enforce a chango of policy on the part of the Greek Government. Even, however, if the demonstrations at Salonika are duplicated at Athens and elsewhere, it will not' necessarily follow that the pro-German party in Greece is -at an end of its resources. Hitherto the pro-Germans have succceded in _ defying popular opinion very pointedly expressed in this fashion. April 7, for instance, the ninetyfifth" anniversary of Greek independence, witnessed remarkable stenes iu Athens. King Const.antine was cheered in his passage through the streets, but his Ministers were received in stony silence, except at one point, where they were openly hooted; M. Venizelos, on tho other hand,, was given a tremendous popular ovation, which was persisted in despite tho strenuous efforts made by a strong body of police to suppress and clisperse the demonstrators. Discounted though they were by the evidences afforded of tho personal popularity of tho King, the events of the day gave a notable indication of the trend of popular sympathies as between M. Venizelos and tho stop-gap Ministry at present in'office. Nevertheless King Constantixb has bcon able to persevere in the policy which has brought his country to its present unhappy pass, and it seems rather optimistic to anticipate his hand being forced at this late hour.

An act of justice is done to General Townshend in the publication of a White Paper containing the official correspondence relating to the illfated advance on Bagdad. Both the Home and Indian governments have apparently been able to clear themselves of responsibility to the extent that they were not made awaro of General Townshend's representations that the forco under his command was inadequate for the work it was set to do. Some doubt apparently exists as to the measure of responsibility resting upon Sir John Nixon, who held the chief command in Mesopotamia at the time, and one or more of his subordinates. There seems to have been an element of misunderstanding, if not of muddle, in regard to providing the reinforcements for which General Townshend ' asked, and in the event they . not provided. Responsibility for this failure has yet to be finally apportioned, but General Townshend's position is mado absolutely clear. Ho went as far as discipline nermittod in emphasising

the inadequacy of his forco and tho necessity of increasing it. Having done this lie entered undauntedly upon the perilous enterprise with which he was entrusted, ;uul came much nearer to success than could reasonably have been expected. His record is that of a commander equally notable for prilde'nt foresight and for the enterprise and dek'rniiiialioii exemplified in the daring inarch on Bdgdad, and the long defence of Kut-cl-Auiara.