PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2779, 25 May 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Balkan correspondents of the London Press supply lis this morning with estimates of the Turkish forces at the different danger points in the Turkish Empire.. We may take the figures as largely guesswork, but they are ot interest, nevertheless, as indicating the importance which those on tho spot attach to developments in this theatre of war. If we take the estimates supplied by the Daily Mail's Athens correspondent, the inference ; will at onco be drawn that the Turks have been, thrown into_ a great state •of panic by tho Russian advance in .the Caucasus and in Mesopotamia. This, of course, is not at all surprising, but the figures quoted are. European Turkey would seem to have been denuded of troops, less x than 150,000 out of a total of 860,000 being left for the defence of Turkish interests north of the Sea of Marmora apd the Dardanelles. This, as lias been mentioned, must be only a rough estimate, but it may he accepted as indicating in a broad way tne general situation. In the region of tho Caucasus and Mesopotamia, on the other hand, there are said to be no less than 520,000 Turkish troops. We may discount this total liberally, and still perceive the importance which is attached to the invasion by Russia and Britain ■of the far eastern region of the Turkish Empire.

It is not merely the military progress of the Russians in this region that.the Turks have to fear. It is tho demoralisation which has set in amongst the Turkish people at this unexpectedly heavy blow. The effect is not confined to the area in which the Russians have struck. The Turkish people in the main did. not want the war, they are not buoyed up with any heroic purpose or national ambition; they distrust their allies and fear their own rulers. It onlv wants a successful move by the Allies at Salonika to turn the existing" clemoralisation into a panic, which may lead to the \ overthrow of the Turkish Government and the collapse of Turkey as a factor in the war. At least such is the view of intelligent observers and writers in the American Press. It may b'o that this is an extreme view, but if the Russian advance continues moro unlikely things than an uprising in Constantinople may be looked for To-day's news tells of further Russian successes south of Trcbizond. This is where the Turks recently reinforced appear, to be making a most determined effort to break tho Russian line. Repeated attacks, however. arc now reported to have been repulsed, and the Russian positions strengthened. The movement of tho Russians towards Mosul, on the Tigris, is one of the most important of the developments recorded. If successful, this drive will strike at. one of the nerve-centres of the Turkish lines of communication. A landing at Alcxandretta, on the Mediterranean coast, or in' that vicinity, which is said to be feared by the Turks, would be directed against the Turkish lines of transport along the route of the Bagdad Railway, which is riot very far distant from the coast at this point. This would not materially affect the campaign in the Caucasus, but should the Russians capture Mosul, and the Allied forces cut tho Bagdad railway, then I

the Turks in l»esopotamia. would be in the gravest difficulty, and Bagdad itself would be practically isolated. Tho movement against Alexandrctta, however, is at present nothing more than a possible development suspected by the Turks. Wo can afford to rest content with the progress being made in the East without concerning ourselves for the moment with the possibilities of that progress being helped by a blow on the western coast of Turkey in Asia. Dead Mao's Hill is so torn by sheila that through, tho glass it looks like a picture of tlie edge of the moon. In this wonderful parorama of one of the greatest battles in tho world war, if not the greatest, one'sees little or nothing of the contending forces—probably not far from a million men. Never in the world's history have such enormous masses of artillery been engaged at one point. On tho M-mile semi-circle of the firing line around Verdun the Germans perhaps liavo 2500 guns in action or in reserve. Were each gun fired but once an hour there would oa a shot every second. The average weight of a shell is more than 251b. Even ia desultory firing 160,0001b., or four to livo car loads, of iron aro raining oil the French positions every hour. This is magnified many times when the fire is increased to tho intensity called "drumming." This graphic sketch of tho scene at Mort Homme, - written by an American journalist on the spot, assists us to visualise the terrible scene of carnage so briefly but so forcibly outlined in- to-day's messages. All the desperate fury of the earlier attacks on tbc French ppsitions east and west of Mort Homme seems to have characterised the latest attempts of the Germans to gain possession of this coveted position— this hill, scarred'and torn with shell and drenched with the blood of brave mon. The Germans again advanced in massed formation, line after line, and again the hail of bullets from the machine guns and the rain of shrapnel from the French quickfirers stacked the ground with German dead. The first attack failed utterly, but later in tho day a second attack_ with fresh troops succeeded in gaining the' French first line trenches, only to be ba'yoneted out by the French counter-attack. It has been said beforo, but it will bear repetition, that the winning of first line, trenches seldom means anything of importance. It has bccomo the practice to djando'n first line trenches in facoTif a heavy attack, the troops holding them retiring during the enemy bombardment and relying on their machine-gun fire and quickfirers to keep the enemy out. ' Should the enemy gain possession in spite of this, a counterattack is organised before the position can be placed in defensive order, and this counter-attack generally succeeds against troops already' badly cut up, and probably wearied by their efforts in the attack. This procedure has been found less costly than that of leaving the men in the first line trenches to bear tho full brunt of the enemy's artillery. ' *.• * » The most significant and tho most encouraging features of the latest developments along the Verdun front are the increasing evidences of the ability of the French not only to' withstand the shocks of the terrific attacks hurled against them, but to make'and seize openings for a dashoffensive against the enemy's .positions. They no' longer stand on tlie defensive. A. day or two ago we were told of their sucoessful venture against the strongly-held quarries at iiaudromont; and to-day comes the tidings of General Nivelle's dashing exploit which drove the enemy out of the greater part'of Douaumont and kept him out. The alertness and capacity of the French air service apparently was mainly responsible for this latest achievement, it was noted that troops wero being transferred from Fort Douaumont-north-east of Verdun—to strengthen the attack on Mort Homme—to the north-west. The , French commander seized the opportunity to attack the weakened position, and the greater part of the fort was ckptured in 90 minutes a brilliant piece of work in which the French infantry once moie demonstrated their superiority with the bayonet. The removal of ST 00 ! S ! r Z m Forfc Douaumont to the Mort Homme front suggests that there is no surplusage of German troops available in this vicinity just now. Either that, or the capacity of the French to take the offensive against so formidable a defensive position was under-rated Ihe situation generally around Veruun, left at the close of the dav's news, is wholly satisfactory. The enemy has gained nothing as the outcome of the most desperate and formidable effort he has put forth for weeks past, and has suffered heavy losses. Our Allies, on the other hand, have regained some of the ground ost m' the earlier stages of the attack on Verdun ■

Matters along the Italian frontier are not so satisfactory. It j s clear that the Austrian offensive in the Trentino caught our Allies at a disadvantage, and has been pressed homo with great energy and in powerful force. The Italian accounts of the struggle show that the ground was stubbornly contested, in face of heavy odds, and the enemy paid a t Ground gained, btul lie did gain,' and the position would seem to be still insecure from the Italian point of view. The Aus■trians claim to have captured 23,000 Italians and 172 guns, which, even if allowance is made for exaggeration, still indicates a material- measure of success.

It will bo noted tnat Italian reports speak of a strengthening of the third lino of defences in 'anticipation of the possibility of the Austrians forcing a passage of the mountains and moving out on the Venetian* plain The greatest' danger to be feared' does not lie in an advance into the open country. This could be opposed probably by far greater numbers than the Austrians could put into this field. Moreover, the Austrians would have the mountains at their backs, and would have to contend with all tho difficulties of transport through such country, whereas our Allies would have at their back a network of railways and excellent roads. A very real danger, however, would present itself were the Italian forces driven back into the plains; and that danger is that tho Austrians .might be content to hold the mountain passes," and thus, with a comparatively small force, bar an Italian advance, while holding out a constant menace of invasion. This would necessitate the Italian commander leaving a large force to guard this portion of the frontier— a force which would be practically idle. In other words, whereas the Austrians in their' mountain positions might hold their, line with less than 100,000 men, the Italians would ■require to lock up several hundred thousand men—perhaps half a million—to safeguard against a surprise attack. It has to be borne in mind that it would be well nigh impossible to gain any sound idea of what the Austrians misrhb be doing in tho way.

of accumulating forces in the valley of the Trentino for the purposes of •attack. Even when well advanced into the mountains, the Italians, as we have seen, 'were caught by surprise owing to the difficulties of aerial scouting in such country, ahd the difficulties would be rather greater in the event of such a situation as wo have depicted. Howovcr, the Austrian advance has not yet readied this stage.

Some of the messages to-day suggest, as wo surmised at the outset of this offensive, that the Austrian attack is designed to hamper a projected Italian offensive on some other frontier where the troops might be employed to greater advantage than in the mountains of the Trentino. This, of course, is speculation, but it is quite possible, and for reasons which we need not repeat. What has to .bo faced is the possibility that for the time being a substantial part of the Italian forces which might _ have been more profitably employed in the Balkans or even on the French front will be tied to the North Italian front to all intents and purposes idle. Whether this will nasten the Allies' general offensive in the Balkans, on the Eastern front, and in Franco is open to doubt. The situation would require to bo grave indeed before the Allied commanders permitted themselves to be forced premature offensive, and there is nothing to warrant the view that such a state of tilings exists in Italy. The worst in sight is the locking up of a quarter of a million of Italian troops on the" northern frontier of our ally, and when the big offensive does commence they may be found their task. * # * •

Heavy artillery . bombardments continue at various points along the British front in France, and no doubt are preliminary to further offensive movements. At time of writing, however, these have not developed into infantry attacks: Signs are accumulating of increased activity all round. In Russia there is a stir in a new quarter, near tho Pripet Marshes. Here tho Germans have suffered another reverse, and been driven back, for some distance, and their trenches destroyed Exactly the extent of this success is not indicated, but it is something in the right direction.