PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2773, 17 May 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The theorising of the military experts who air their views in tho Press on the subject of Germany's plans for the coming summer campaign displays a remarkable conflict 1 of opinion. This is perhaps to be expected. "Germany has not' yet shown her hand," is the comment of one section -of opinion, while another professes to see in the failure at Verdun the breakdown of the initial move in the great game which was to demoralise the Allies' projected offensive in the West, before the Central Powers struck the mighty blow which was to crumple up the Russian front and, cripple our Eastern Ally for many months to come. Speculation of this sort carries a certain amount of interest, but it would be a mistake to treat it with any great seriousness. Whatever may be known or guessed at of the' enemy's intentions Dy the Commanders of the Allied forces is not likely to bo disclosed, and. they certainly have much better sources of information than the military writers, who so frankly admit their inability to probe the German plans or who so confidently parade their ability to do so. While it would be foolish to under-vatc the capacity of the German General Staff it is equally unwise to endow it with miraculous gifts which enable it to achieve the impossible. Whatever Germany's plans may be they are governed by certain known factors relating to men, munitions, and transport, and there has been nothing in recent events to give rise to any fear that the armies of tho Entente Powers are not in a position to meet any move which may be sprung on them by the German General Staff. The enemy may gain a temporary advantage, as at Verdun, but it is the final result that counts.

While on this topic it is of interest "to note the quite remarkable change in the attitude of leaders of public opinion in Germany on the subject of the Verdun offensive. At the outset of tho struggle, when tho French were forced to yield ground under the terrible strain-of the unprecedented deluge of artillery, tire and the overwhelming weight or the massed , German battalions, tho boastings and prophecies circulated broadcast throughout Germany raised the hopes of the people to the highest pitch. France,' in effect, was practically crushed, and would hardly count in. the future as a factor in the war. Since the check on tho German effort was firmly established there has been a gradual whittling down of the German claims and tho semi-official Press has bcon at great pains to' explain to the public that the end in view was very different to that previously expressed. The Frankfurter Zeitunq, of March 23, began this move. Instead of claiming as heretofore a victory for German arms it was content to claim a victory for German strategy. "If," it remarked, "our operations continue to follow their equal and favourable course, as we may_ hope, it is possible that the strategical position at Verdun will one day beconio untenable for our enemies even if they have been able to. continue at this point or that their resistance to the frontal pressure." _ This is indeed a niodest anticipation, qualified by "ifs" and possibilities, after tho previous boastful announcements of a great German triumph. •'* » »

The Cologne Gazette of the following day approached the subject I from another point of' yiew. It claimed that the German High Command by forcing the fighting at Verdun was forcing its ""will on the enomy. It naively admitted that tho French at times had asserted their "will" at Verdun and that there had been "pauses dictated by the enemy," but it added that "if events arc contemplated from this point of view [that there are two sides to a battle] they may be regarded "with a satisfaction which is all the greater if one considers all tho circumstances." So it is that the German Press has b'V.u gradually paving tho way in the public mind for acceptance of the failure at Verdun under the pleasing delusion that the French have been forced to fight where they did not want to. "The 1 decisivo point is," comments tho

Uolof/ne Journal, "that we stick firmly to our purpose in order ultimately to attain it." This was written on March 24. They are still sticking to the same purpose, but each day's report goes to show that instead of gaining ground their hold on tho positions won in the earlier stages of the struggle k weakening. * » « »

The prediction that a critical per* iod in the war is approaching is merely a statement of the obvious. In all probability it will be on tho Eastern and not on the Western front that ovonts will first develop. There are many reasons for • this view, but tbe most important ol these is that the longer the blow on tho Eastern front is delayed the bettor llussia will be prepared to meet it.' On the Western front the Allies are now in all probability at their maximum strength.. The most' Germany ean hope for there is to delay the Anglo-French main offensive or to hold it in check by fighting with the advantages which belong to a defensive force under the conditions which exist along the Western front. In the East it is very different. This matter has been discussed so often that it is not necessary to recapitulate the facts of the position. What we may look for—what the soundest judges of the military situation anticipate—is a tremendous German offensive against Russia in the region of lliga and along' the I)wina; and also a further offensive iu Ga■licia. German attempts during past months to force the Allies to begin a premature offensive in the West have' so far failed. The main objeet.of tho Verdun attack was regarded by many competent judges as nu attempt of this nature. Other attempts may be made on a large scale, but it is on the East that attention is likely to be:most closely focusscd in the, near future, and on developments there decisive action in tho West will in all probability largely depend. It is well to bear in mind when dwelling on the mystery wh<cn surrounds the German plan of nampaign, as so many writers do, that the plans of the Allies arc not proclaimed from tbe house-tops. Germany has been allowed to set the pace tip to the present, and is so situated as to have been able to strike very much where she chooses. But conditions are changing rapidly. The Allies have patiently endured their disadvantages while building up their strength in preparation for the day to conic. That day must be near.

Of actual fighting there is nothing of special note to record at time of writing. The Germans have beeii active at favourite points along the British line neai\Loos and La Bassec where their raiding expeditions have been carried on with , little gain. There have also been • attacks on the French section in Champagne and further bombardments at Verdun. The French took a turn at the offonsive on the heights of the Mouse and report clearing the enemy's trenches over a distance of 200 metres, but this class of activity is largely in the nature of "feelers-' designed to probe the enemy's intentions and to cause him as much trouble as possible. '.

In Asia Minor the Turk's have been stiffened by the addition ' of 20,000 Austro-Geraan troops who are said to have designs on the Russian centre between Erzerum and Erzingan. It was in this vicinity that so recently as yesterday we were told of the llussian outposts being forced to fall back before a desperate Turkish attack. There may be more in this business than has yet been told. The forces of the Grand Duke Nicholas are now stretched over a vast extent of territory—over 40,000 square miles of Turkish territory is held by the Russians—and the situation is not without its anxieties. Fortunately the Turks, as well as the Russians, arc hampered by transport difficulties. Some heavy lighting may be looked forward to, and any_ day_ now we may hear of the British in Mesopotamia assisting to relieve the pressure on the Gband :Duke by a forward move. A remarkable demonstration in favour of preparedness for war is recorded from Washington. It is but one of many signs of the dissatisfaction of what' is probably a majority of the people with the unreadiness of America to' defend her national interests by force of arms. Disclosures made as to the condition of her military and naval defences at various stages of the present world conflict have been emphasised by the necessity which arose for a dispatch of troops into Mexico in pursuit of Villa. The demonstration mention? Ed to-day may not have any reference to the President's attitude to Germany or to the_ Ententc Powers. It is probably nothing .more than an evideucc of the growing force of the agitation in favour of placing the linked States in a position to back her words by deeds should occasion demand it, and to strengthen her standing with the nations of the world. At the same timo it has a bearing on the war itself. It is one more sign that the American people have been stirred by the scant respect paid to the representations of their diplomats where American interests have come into conflict with German policy and methods. They feel their helplessness and their danger. The coming Presidential campaign will be influenced by the question of "preparedness." President Wilson some time ago pledged himself to a strengthening of America's defences and his opponents aro inclined to go still further. America in fact seems to bo waking up at last.

The passage of the Compulsory Service Bill through the House of Commons is an outstanding event recorded in to-day's news. It is not merely the actual results which the measure is likely to produce in the way of additional men that counts, the moral effect of the step must also be considered. That Britain, in face of the national repugnance to compulsion, should take this step will impress the world as perhaps nothing else has done with her determination to carry this struggle through to the bitter end at any sacrifice. It is significant, too, of the mood of the people that such a measure should have passed through all its stages in the House of Commons, without any serious attempt at opposition; iu fact, without any opposition worth-speaking of. Its passage through the Lords will be a speedy one. * . » .. * se

The Irish situation, though the immediate dangers of the recent uprising have passed, is still a sourcu 01 a great deal of anxiety. The difficulty of reconciling ordinarily irreconcilable sections of Irish opinion is great even though the war has led to somo readiness to compromise and sink differences for the time being. It is plain that some change in the government of Ireland is necessary and it scorns probable that a Provisional Executive with limited powers may prove- the easiest way out.

Hardly any course that may be adopted is likely to give general satisfaction and least ot all the" suggestion that immediate Home Rule should be granted; Until Mr. Asquith returns from Ireland and has discussed matters with Mr. Eedjiond and Sin Edward Carson, no definite decision may be looked for.