PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2771, 15 May 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A broad survey of tho military situation, as disclosed in to-day's cablegrams, suggests a general quickening of effort. From all quarters comes news of activities which are plainly a prelude to greater events. Jia-st and west, in the Balkans, in the Caucasus, and further south towards Bagdad, movements are afoot which hint at big possibilities in the noar_ future. Does it foreshadow the opening of the big concerted move against the enemy on all fronts?

1 hough no happenings of outstanding importance aro recorded on tho Western front, the're are nevertheless many evidences of a state of high tension. In the Verdun region no respite has been given. Enemy attacks to the north and to the east and south-east of the fortress have been attempted, and have been beaten off. On the other hand, the French have regained some of the ground lost in the earlier stages of the great struggle in this region. 'It may be taken as confirmatory of the opinion, previously expressed that the German offensive . against Verdun is weakening. The German General Staff would hot willingly admit failure and apparently is adopting the course of covering the defeat or its purpose by a gradual slackening of effort at Verdun. There may be still further attacks, but the main offensive in this rceion may be taken to have ceased, for the time being at least.

• At the same timej there is plainly an increafeo of activity at quite a number of other points along the Jong line held by the French and ijrifcish forces. Piecing together the stray bits of news outside the official communiquos, the impression is gathered that matters have been more lively than usual along the British front. A typically terse message from the British Commander-in-Chief to-day mentions that a German attack on Wednesday last north-east of Vermolles—that is to say near La Basses—resulted in the Germans capturing 500 yards of our trenches, thougTi a counter-attack the same night seems to havo evened up matters again. A German message intimates that an attack was made on the British lines south-east of the Hohenzollern redoubt—which is but another way of describing the same locality—and that 127 prisoners were taken. The message adds that the British suffered sanguinary losses in the counter-attack.: The two accounts do not differ materially, although the German report omits to mention that the trenches wore recaptured. This sort of give-and-take is practically a daily occurence at one or another point of the line, and in most cases means nothing more than har-, assing the enemy, by one side or the. other. The point of most interest at the moment is tho seeming increase in this class of activity; which may be taken to indicate the suspicion of something big afoot. In the Champagne district, to the west of Verdun and away south in the Vosges, the same activity is being shown, lively artillery bombardments in particular being recorded. Clearly feelers are being thrown out, whether by the enemy or by the Allies is not clear. They may foreshadow another big onslaught at some given point, or this may be designed merely to keep the enemy. guessing and expending his energies in wasteful counter-moves. The one thing clear is that things are waking up all along the Western front.

And in the meantime Germany has struck in the East—the North-East. The extent of this offensive is not disclosed, but tho Petrograd communiques on the subject should -bo read in conjunction with the message from Copenhagen, stating that a fleet of German merchantmen, escorted by torpedo-boats 'and destroyers, is carrying arms and munitions to Libau, presumably for the forces operating in the Riga region, where the offensive has beon opened. Tin Baltic offers the best means of sending munitions to the German forces in the Riga region, but it is a risky route owing to the activities of the British submarines. We may expect to hear more of this later. The Gei - man opening attacks at Jacobstaadt and along the Dwina front do not appear to have met with any material success. On tho contrary, the reports suggest_ rather the reverse. It would be foolish, however, to c'r&nany extreme conclusions at this stage. The issue, as has been so frequently emphasised, will depend very largely on the question of munitions, aiul timo alone can test whether the Russian supply is sufficient to meet i>r> offensive on a grand scale. It is sufficient for the moment that the prospects of our Eastern Allies are considered good. We may look any time now for Austro-German attacks on other parts of the Eastern front, but tho main offensive will probably bo in the Riga region. »■ • * * »

Cheering tidings come from the Tsar's armies operating in Asia Minor. In the Caucasus further successes against the Turks are reported, while further south the march on Bagdad progresses apace. Another Turkish force has been routed, and the Russians are following up the retreating enemy in the direction of Khanikin. This town is less than 100 miles from Bagdad, and as the Russians are reported to have now passed through the mountain fastnesses which hampered their advance, progress may prove more rapid. Ab the same timo, it is well to bear in mind that supplies havo to be transported over a long and difficult route and care will require to be taken ta=afe.suard the position

Moreover it has been stated that heavy forces of Turks have been assembling for the defence of Bagdad, so the difficulties ahead are still great. Tho co-operation of the British forces in Mesopotamia should become an increasingly important factor as tho llussians draw further south. We have heard very little from this quarter since the fall of Kut-el-Amara. Wc may hear a good deal ere long.

A somewhat insignificant item relating to the Balkans suggests possibilities not altogether, of a pleasant kind. Is is to the effect that 36,000 Bulgarian troops have been transferred from the Dobrudja frontier to tho German-Bulgarian front at Salonika — presumably ' Macedonia is meant. This message comes from Odessa, and coming from this sourco it may be accepted as fairly accurate. The feature of importance about it is not. so much the necessity that it implies has been felt for strengthening the enemy's line in Macedonia, where there have been signs of a forward movement by the Allies, as the inference which may be drawn from it concerning the attitude of Rumania. The Dobrudja frontier is, of course, the south-eastern frontier - of ltumania. Owing to the uncertainty as to Rumania's intentions, Bulgaria has' been forced to keep a substantial body of her troops to defend the Bulgo-Rumanian frontier in case of Rumania's intervention on the side of the Entente Powers. The removal of tho troops mentioned would seem to suggest one of twothings. Either the risk of Rumania joining with tho Allies is removed, or the danger from the Allied forces . based on Salonika appears so pressing that tho troops have had to be transferred in spite of the risk along the Rumanian frontier. There is, of I course, the contingency that Bulgaria may have sufficient troops along her !■ northern frontier without those now removed elsewhere, or they may be replaced by German troops, but these things are not likely. >The probability is that the addition of the Serbian forces to those of the AngloFrench force based on Salonika has made the strengthening of the Ger-man-Bulgarian line in that" quarter an urgent necessity. The fact that tho Bulgarian force so transferred is a comparatively small one does not alter the fact that it amy prove a usoful pointer to the trend" of events in the Balkans. A few days ago we were told of a- hoavy artillery bombardment proceeding along the Macedonian frontier. We have heard nothing since, beyond the news to-day of the transfer of these Bulgarian troops to the scene of this activity. Tho inference is plain enough. It looks as though the Allies were moving in the Balkans, and with some effect.

The reported creation of a now Ministerial portfolio, that of Minister of the Air, and the appointment of Lokd Cur'zon to the office, are not confirmed at time of writing, but they are probabilities that should occasion no surprised The agitation in favour of placing tho aerial branch of the national defences under an independent Department, which, of course, would work in conjunction with the naval and military, has , grown greatly in strength and popular favour. It has not, however, found the same favour with thoso in authority. Some experienced military authorities litr that tho creation' of a new Department as suggested may lead to difficulties as between the different branches of the defenco service, and that such gain as might be derived from the concentration of a separate Department for the construction of flying machines and tho training of pilots and observers would be mora than counterbalanced by the dislocation which would be likely, to occur, and the lack of cohesion in the forces as a whole. The difficulties suggested seem unimportant compared with the advantages of having a Minister directly and solely responsible for the development of this branch of the national defences. Naturally his Department would have to be guided by the experience and knowledge of the experts of the naval and military forces. They would know what was required, not only in the number and style of machines, but in the training of those engaged in the aerial service. It would be the business of the Ministry of the Air to see that an organisation was built up which would meet theso.demands in the speediest and completest manner possible; and, in addition, to secure the highest skill possible to develop new and still better types of machines. It would still remain for the naval and military services to control and direct the members of the aerial service, working in conjunction with the fleets and the armies on activo service. Aerial' warfare already plays so big a paijt in' modern warfare that . its importance would seem to fully warrant the catch-cry with which the claim for an independent air service is supported, namely, "ono element, one service." We have separate services for sea and for land defence; why not also for the air]