FORECASTING THE SEASONS

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2762, 4 May 1916, Page 3

FORECASTING THE SEASONS

MR, CLEMEiNT WRAGGE'S LEGTURK.

The mysteries of weather forecasting were explained in ail extremely lucid and interesting manner by Mr. Clement L. Wragge in liis lecture in the Concert Chamber last night. Mr. Wragge spoke at the outset of the importance to even the ordinary home-loving citizen of a knowledge 01 tile climatic conditions of his own-place. Mr. Wragge is nothing if not an enthusiast, and ho practises himself' the teachings that he would have others iiciopt. So he related how, when iu Queensland holding a post as meteorologist under the Government, ho made for himself a beautiful home and garden. He acquired a piece of land, and built a house thereon, and the land was then a piece of the most churlish soil in tlio neighbourhood. He began by taking accurate observations of the climate of that spot, and even of the soil itself, declaring that when he had obtained those data lie would make for himself a beautiful tropical garden. For this ho was freely scoffed at by his friends, but, as his photographs showed, he succccdcd in an astounding degree. He lias also surrounded liis home at uirkenhead, Auckland, with a beautiful tropical garden, on land wlierc formerly there was nothing but illgrown tea-tree. Thus Mr. Wraggo establishes the value of tlio study of climate to the gardener, bo ho a professional or an ordinary home-loving citizen. As with the gardener, so with all men getting their living lrom the soil and the sun, a knowledge of climatic conditions was of paramount importance. Air. AVragge began tlio scientific section of his lecture by insisting upon the importance of great cave and accuracy in the taking of barometric and tliermometric observations, and explaining what measures iVcre necessary to secure this accuracy. Next he told how seasons could be forecasted, and as a documentary proof that tne thing is possible, lie produced a forecast made by him in 1901 of the seasons for Australia for the fifteen years following that date. The accuracy of that forecast has been proved by actual experience of drought years, moderate 'years, and fat years, exactly as . foretold. He explained that the basis of.all such forecasting' was tlio influence upon climate of the sun in its maxima and minima moods, and of the moon ill a lesser degreo by its declinations. The theory of sun spots and cycles he elaborated, and made plain. Then lie told of his experiences as a meteorologist in many places., iiis first great desiro was to obtain reliable observations at sea level anu at as great a height as possible, of a nearly • vertical section of atmosphere. liis first attempt was at Ben *<evis, in Scotland, where he had to climb the mountain himself every morning, summer and winter. Later, he caino out to Tasmania, and there established a sea-level station at Hobart, and a high station on top of Mount Wellington. He concluded at length that, interesting as these observations were, tlio high-level station was not high enough, and ho established another on Mount Kosciuski, New South AVales. To maintain an observatory at a height'of 7600 ft. was no easy task, but it was done, and everything was going well when—there was a change of Government. The new Government was not interested in Mr. AVragge or in meteorology, and tho grant was Stopped. All .the information collected at that station is still unanalysed. Later, Mr. AVragge was engaged by the Queensland and from Brisbane ho conducted operations Covering tho wholo of Australasia, obtaining observations • from as • many parts as possible, and sending out forecasts of tlio weather likely to prevail. Mr. AVraggo explained in fullest detail all his methods'of working, showing that tho forecast of w ; eather by tho meteorologist Is no mere hazardous guess work. Ho is most crnphatic in his declaration that in. his craft is nothing mysterious, but that it is simply a proper collation and analysis of observed facts. He does not claim for his work absolute accuracy,' but only a reasonable percentage of accuracy, and by "reasonable" ho means a high percentage. Ho scorns the term "weather prophet." Altogether, his lecture was a most interesting account of a muchmisunderstood branch of science. To-night, Mr. AVraggo lectures on . "The Immortal Skies.'-