"WE SHALL WIN!"

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2761, 3 May 1916, Page 6

"WE SHALL WIN!"

•- ' WmAN\"S:GREAT WEAPON-BLUFF

':"' AN INTERESTING LETTER

.'ENERAL: WAR SURVEY BY AN OFFICER

'/;.. The following is a most interesting ; letter received by a gentleman in tho .. Wellington'district from an officer hold--T "ing'"a high" command on ' the Western -; front, and, handed'to us by Captain Donald.,.Sirason for publication, — '.-. "Tho'ifarther one is away from the 'fighting line,- the more pessimistic the view one is apt to take, At the front you find no or pessimism. There' is.np sickness,, and cveryono laughs at troubles and .'difficulties. The only fear one ever hears expressed is -.". that politicians will patch up a peace before wp have given tho Germans a ■'proper.• licking-.. '. V

,-, •;■;,.,:,;,,, Comingmto Full Play, s; .-"Our' feeling out here, is that the war, from'our point.of view, has hardly begun-yet. Up to now wo have been '■ .btruggling to hold but while Germany " was at tho height of her power. From Ytow ,'onwards conditions will change. We ..have plenty, of men—if the Government '.Avill- only' enlist t'lieni. Our munitions Vare'just coming into full play, and for .... .the first time, we can give the German back aiot: only ; -shell j'br shell, but! two ■or .three, to.his'.'.one.Germany, on the ~ pother.:'hand, can never bo stronger. ." From now onward she must weaken in Vusen, in resources, and hY morale.: .That ..-..is-p. fact, and'there is no getting over '..'■ it.: Take, one example only: We have •now called up certain groups of men 'M-pfiages';between-19 andiS; Germany is % ;! rkiivjcalljhg up : ..hei' r 1917 class,-and all l;''men'of-(rrthink);,4s:to 48, : and' all 1 men irejected as ..unfit. •' .; She 'has. li.'Sade. groat', territorial, acquisitiono in year, but.they : ;have"-brought V'her; little- material' advantage, as, exfecepting- in" the \ca.se of- Serbia, she has '^failed.to''defeat; armies,.and her, Sue-s'cesses,-have cost■ her:.heavily in men. .i'lWithout'.decisive victories she must in

/fftlfe long run■i\ - MkenVnot only,in!tDicri, ' ".'''jbiiii'm' materidl, economically.and, finan--t/;'ci'ally;"-'it is only a.matter 'of time. If Britain from tho beginning had ■~V;',put ;out her whole strengtli and or'..iganised not only armies but.labour, the V. "now would be different; But ■■■ithougli the country has', now : grasped ''tho situation; to a far greater ex^nt •; than formerly, the Government has not. "iltioeems to.me that the danger'is that ."'tj'ur "Allies.may .scon get tired of our :}; half-heartedness. They cannot uuder- .'; stand why we are only now calling up ':- 'young- men, when they have expended all their young;men. months ago. They ----Ganhbt understand why wo do.not put - ■-; i Irt ourfull strength and resources. They .';': cannot afford the expense of the,war .'. j-ear: after year, whatever we may .think :We fare able to do. Why does fireat :"' Britain not. make an effort .to bring _ .', the war to an end quickly ? It. must /. seem absolutely, incomprehensible to the foreigner—as'indeed it does to soldiers.

Germany's Defensive strength. '•7" v"'". "As to.'Germany's efforts in the 'East .>—we out here d« not look on them as „■•'...''-Very'."serious.'" Tho Eastern and "West-'■■..-;*rn.fronts in Northern Europe remain >r-,the decisive.'.points where tho issue of ' tho. war will .be decided. The more we '.•'•"•'..disseminate'our forces, the hotter we .•"-'are playing Germany's game.' Sho is in . interior lines, and has the advantages • . of thai condition, So long as wo can :'./trine prepouderence of forces, ngainst .'■her m. the two main, theatres, we-shall '■. '•-■. win; the..other theatres are oom'paratiyely side-jhows. But though it is tho ■?■ • fact that sooner or later Germany will, ■ from scarcity of men, have to shorten ; .-'.jifr.- front'under, pressure, the cost of ':■'"'pushing her. back; will: be very;-heavy. :.; .._.;Her lines are . fortified with', immense '■■ .strength; ,'sho will defend them- with .' "•every 1 scientific device imaginable: Tho ••-. only possible way to' break .through is •■;, to fight and reduce the' German strength ■ ;:by shilling, her troops. .But to do, this ■:■■■•'■*. we .'require, unlimited men —waves .and Waves of them. ' In a modern battle ■-• .which extends oyer three or four weeks ■ .' 'we will lose any thing up to, say, 100,000 ' ■'.-,'■'■ men.' ~, There 'must he another 100,000 t' ...ready to'take their place, so that the r.,',;pressure may. go on and on. Hitherto ■"■■•■'l'Doth with ourselves audi the-French wo • ".-have-not had enough: men or *v;" enough : nvunitipns, or enough, of both ':'■'; combined, to continue the struggle, long -enough.; Two or three times we have -''".nearly broken through; but just as the, '--,;;'''. Germans' were at their last resources• ,•; our.effort.-.had to stop. Wo believq. •"-,-.(.that ?when- once we begin to<push the ■■• -••Germans .back, "and can continue the ■-: -pressure, she will soon crack'up. The v.'Germans are not stickers, and if once ■■■?;' /they are. pushed back into thoir own country the end will soon come. 'This .•■can. he done,.provided there are sufficient men'and munitions. 'Failing that; ..it must be a-war of attrition, and that '■" ..iwill take a long time. ,

;J' r ; Men and Munitions. . - v ' .' "Generals are being freely Darned for .:!' mistakes,.and -want of 'push.' Mistakes .;*'■ there must be, but I don't think them v.; has been a chance of really' Dreakfug J -through the Germans-yet. We hav.e'not ,-,i .had sufficient men or munitions.'• ■ People ;;y ' .hardly appreciate "the power of, the <le- "••-. fence when there are fortified positions '■?■:.. with unlimited artillery behind'theui, I'":' ; act to mention machine-guns, bombs, .;?. gas, fire r .'and'.acres of barbed wire. Unvii". lefia there are masses ofmon to replaco J: 'casualties, a successful attaok is impos- ~,: sible. rSo.'much for difficulties. The

general situation., is .that we are growing: stronger:; ..Our' morale, is excellent— •'■; so is. : .'the: Germans'—but ours will continue good; theirs will not: .Their- chance " of/'success lajvih -rapidity,, and in their. Ijropa'r'edhess'.'.The.v failed.; now. that we are.Better prepared every day .that' ' ps,sses;how can. they succeedf ;1 . Tho Future. "As-to the future, we havo a great deal of. German preparations for.-, a big . offensive'on the Western front. It l may come off, bnt I do not think it will be in the immediate future. It has bee'm too much- advertised to be real. But 1 do .think it will come .later. Ihey will , tj-y and anticipate us; and to strike before' wo nro prepared for our effort.. I hardly think tho state of the ground will tempt ••thenv to do much before. March, at any-rate; in this particular . part (Flanders): They may try it elsewhere iti tho West, hut I doubt their ■ beginning until they can do it on a big scale; They are counting much on their gas* That is not'likely to be the'success they anticipate! It is ticklish stuff to . handle; it requires particular winds and particular configuration of ground. It may give local successes. I don't think that with our present appliances and experience it will lead to any 'great results.' Attack, aa already explained, is expensive. If tho Germans attack, they will suffer enormous losses. We should be able to outlast them, and with any luck we should score heavily. Wo may have reverses, but no one has any doubt that we shall be able to keep them from bvoaking us up—as we have Hone before!—and then it will be our . turn.

"Thoy Talk Big." "I think this represents pretty accurately the' feelings; of everyone out here. I have never heard anyone whose fcpinion is worth having who .has not fee most complete confidence in beating fine Germans. How soon depends on men and munitions. One must not be misled by all the German talk and plana oi purveyed for ub by newspapers. ■Bluffis their great weanon. They tall)

big to impress neutrals, and to terrify thoir enemy. One does not undeilate thom-4hey are much too well organised and too good soldiers for that, But, on the other hand, there, is not Ike .slightest need to be afraid of them, provided wo are not put off b.v reverses, if such come. Wo shall pull through al! right. But it may take a long time yet, and for that we have only ourselves -to thank. . .

"I'believe myself that if we introduced compulsory service now the announcement would have such a moral elttct on our Allies, and <m the Germans, that tho war would finish within ■twelve months. But Idoubt the Govern, ment having the pluckj though tha eoiintrv as a whole would 6hout with joy. This is very discursive, but it may j interest you as 'behnj what ie generally thought out here.''