PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2760, 2 May 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It would be very interesting to know whether the French semi-offi-cial statement lately issued to tho effect that the Battle of Verdun had probably'ended was based upon information that the Germans were transferring troops from the Western to tho Eastern front. The French statement was very ,<cqnfident in tone. It said there Was every reason to believe that the Battle of Verdun had ended, and the comment was appended that the check to the enemy s plans could be regarded as final. It is somewhat unlikely that a statement of this kind would be made semi-ofiicially unless there were some definite grounds to go upon, and the suggestion made above—that the Germans are transferring troops to Russia—though it may not be the only feasible explanation,. would meet the facts, and does not altogether lack supporting evidence. The burden of the news from the main theatres at the moment of writing is that there is a lull, though certainly no diminution of tension, in tho Western theatre, while in the East'the Germans have struck a shrewd and locally successful blow in the area east of Vilna. It would be going too far to say that there is definite evidence at the moment that the Germans are about to swing their offensive from West to East, but the conjuncture of events is striking, and it becomes more so when the French semi-official statement which has been quoted is kept in mind.

How far the blow struck against the Russians south of Lako Narotch may be taken as symptomatic. of German preparations for a powerful offensive in that region is not yet certain. A German report on the subject yesterday stated that the Russians had been dislodged from positions with a loss of nearly 6000 prisoners. To-day the, Russians admit the loss of trenches which were taken from the enemy some weeks ago, but the only other detail they supply is that the Gormans attacked in massed formation. Both reports, point to a battle of considerable importance, and as much might ha've been expected from what has beqn made known about events during the last few weeks on the northern section of the Russian front. Since the winter ended there has been a considerable amount of heavy fighting in the area east of Vilna and further north towards the Baltic, the Germans attempting to extend their hold upon the Russian railways and the Russians, apparently, making it their chief aim to improve their lino by capturing dominating positions and passageways between the lakes. In thesis endeavours they achieved some notable success, but the latest struggle south of Lake Narotch seems to have resulted in a set-back. This very possibly. means that the Germans are concentrating heavily on the northern front and that the battle just fought is the prelude to greater events.

Many things are more unlikely than that the Germans inay now bid desperately in the Eastern theatre for the decisive advantage they have failed to win at Verdun, It is true that there are forecasts of an early resumption of the Verdun offensive, but thcv seem to rest upon nothing more substantial than tho stories of German deserters about a now offensive in which Germany will employ half a million men to force a decision before, the end of this month. Against these stories, meantime, we have the fact that after the Germans have been battering at Verdun for nearly two arid a half months the French are apparently unshaJsep on .their main defensive line, li the Germattß are ambitious of i victory, at .Verdun they have

still to win it, and in view of their past failures it is somewhat unlikely that they will find such an attempt attractive or be much more inclined to adopt the immediate alternative of opening a new offensive on the "Western front. There are some grounds for hoping that an abandonment of the* German offensive on this front and a concentration against Russia would do a good deal to clear the way for a grand assault by the Western Allies, but it is just as well to recognise that the task of rolling the German armies back to the Rhine and beyond it will be exceedingly formidable even under the most favourable circumstances.

The Paris Journal, we are told to-day, says that Sir Douglas Haiq is only waiting for the moment to throw his army forward. This calls up an inspiring picture of the British Army poised like an avalanche above its foes, ready to fall upon them and sweep them away, but all such fancy pictures must be regretfully set aside. That Germany will not again be allowed to stand comparatively inactive on the Western tront while she concentrates upon an attempt to crush Russia is quite certain. More than this, the collapse of the German offensive in the Western theatre might very reasonably be taken to mean that Germany had abandoned hope of a decisive victory in the war. But it might very well mean also that she hoped, by turning again to Russia, to carry the war into another winter.

If German plans are taking the direction indicated it will soon be known how far Russia 'has made good the defects in material organisation which cost her so 1 dear in 1915. Her Allies will, of course, share and lighten her burdens by taking concerted action, but unless Russia is herself able to strike powerfully for victory, limits will necessity be imposed upon what the Allies are capable of accomplishing by their aggregate efforts. The measure of Russia's fighting power as she now stands reorganised will determine the distribution of tho Austro-Gorman forces in the decisive struggle impending. This is true whether or not Germany is now meditating a Russian offensive as a sequel to her abortive efforts in the Western theatre and the extent of the Russian recovery must, of course, veiy materially affect the duration of the Avar. It seems probable that we may soon know a good deal more about the effective strength of the Russian armies than we do now. i-leantime, it is distinctly a sign of promise from tho standpoint of the Allies that Germany apparently sees no alternative to persevering in an offensive policy though her hopes of winning a- victory by force of arms are rapidly tending to disappear. * . * '« *

Strenuous efforts aio being made by the Austro-Germans" to induce Greece to close her railways to the passage of the Serbian troops from Patras to' Salonika. These efforts possibly afford a measure of tho apprehensions with which the Central Powers regard the prospect of an Allied offensive from the Salonika base. The case is essentially one in which the Allies are bound to bring firm pressure to bear upon Greece. As reports stand, Bhe has yielded to Aus-tro-Gernran threats of Zeppelin and aeroplane raids and promised to close her railways, to the Serbs. If the Allies take strong measures with Greece, new life will no doubt be given to the cry that they are resorting to the policy which they condemned when Germany applied it to Belgium, but the facts of the posifciun are by this time well and v/idejy known. Apart altogether from the hideous crimes which have made the German occupation of Belgium infamous,' Greece stands in. a .rolation to the Allies as different as possible from that of Belgium to Germany at th-> outbreak of war. Instead of being a neutral Power with her neutrality guaranteed by all the Powers concerned, Greece is the ally of Serbia—the defaulting ally it is true. Her leading statesman, at the head of a large majority in Parliament, acknowledged tho treaty with SerMa and proposed to act upon it, and it was by his invitation that the Allies entered Greece. _ The possibility of questioning their standing has only arisen because the King of Greece, in defianco of the constitution, displace !! a Government established in power by the will of the people. And even King Constantine professes an rttitudo of benevolent neutrality towards the Allies. No doubt Greece can be brought to reason without an actual resort to armed force, since uhe is extremely vulnerable to commercial and financial pressure. There is so much reason to question the sincerity of her present attitude'-that it will not bo surprising i F it is announced presently that the Serbians have been safoly transported tn Salonika, and that Greece has contented herself with the usual protest.

In the month or two that has elapsed since the invasion of German East Africa was actively undertaken important progress lias been made by the British troops—largely South Africans—under the command of General Smuts. Tho latest report in hand shows that an advanced British column, consisting of mounted men, is still operating in the vicinity of Kondoa Irangi, which place was captured about a week ago. In the more recent operations tho enemy has been dispossessed of a large number of cattle and transport animals, together with some arms and military supplies, Kondoa Irangi is about 170 miles south from the southern border of British East Africa, and marks the deepest penetration of the German territory yet effected by the invaders. After the Germans had been displaced from positions around the slopes of Mount Kilmanjaro, which 5s near the border, one section of the British force turned coastwards towards the Tanga railway. This.line runs from Moshi, which is 100 miles cast-south-east of Kilmanjaro and 20 miles from the border, to Tanga, on the coast. It is about 200 miles long. Somo of tho German troops are retreating along tho railway, and it is evidently intended to drive them to tho coast. Further south the German colony is divided into two nearly equal halves by a longer railway, which runs right across it,, from the coast of the Indian Ocean at Dar-cs-Salam to Ujiji, on Lake Tanganyika. The British mounted troops in the vicinity of Ivondoa Irangi are about 70 miles distant from this railway. Exact information as to tho strength of tho German force in the colony is lacking, but some time ago it was estimated that it included three thousand whites and about 5000 native levies. Tho latter section of tho force may have been increased, but tho'Germans have already lost a largo number of pviaomirii pinca the, British invasion was actively taken in hand-

An absurd statement is credited to the German newspaper Vossische Zeitunrj, that the fall of Kut-el-Amara is the heaviest blow that has ever been struck at Britain. As a matter of fact, it seems quite possible that the beginning and end of the disaster is the loss of some ten thousand brave soldiers and a very able and gallant general. There is no news vet as to whether the Tigris columns nave retreated, but even if they do retire for a distance it will not follow that Turkish prospects in the campaign as a whole have ■materialy improved. At this time progress up the river is opposed by maximum difficulties, but before long the_ floods will recede and the Turks will then have a much harder task than now in making good the river line. This, with the Russian threat to the Turkish communications by way of the Bagdad railway and the Upper Tigris, makes the general outlook not unpromising. * * »

British and French newspaper comments thus far cabled'lay more emphasis upon the bravery displayed by the garrison of Kut-el-Amara than ■ upon the defective strategy and organisation which led to their being sacrificed. Common sense and a regard for common justice equally warrant the matter being looked at from this standpoint. General Townshend and his men are a band of heroes who penetrated deeply into the enemy's country, fought and won battles at apparently impossible odds, and finally endured a siege which was extended for a much longer time than could reasonably have been expected. Blame for the mistake 'which led to' this fine force being sacrificed rests upon other shoulders than those of the gallant officer by whom it is immediately commanded. As to this point there have been sweeping changes in the control and conduct of the Mesopotamian campaign since the mistakes were made which led to General Townshend's being left isolated and unsupported. Control of the campaign has been transferred from tho India office to the War Office, and a new Commander-in-Chief has been appointed. It has not been found possible to completely redeem the errors of the past, but as faras can be judged every thing possible has been done to guard against their repetition.