PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2749, 18 April 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Thodgh it must still be accepted cautiously and with some reservation, the belief is gaining groundthat the German attack on Verdun is weakening. During the last day or two there has. been hardly any infantry fighting on the front which has witnessed so many battles during the last 51 days. Furious artillery bombardment but reports in hand at time of writing tell of only one infantry engagement, an affair in which the French succeeded in capturing some enemy trench elements south of Dpuaumont. This is a state of affairs with which' the Germans must be ill-content. To them tho days are prccious which are slipping by without decisive action and without decisive reward for the efforts they have put forth and the sacrifices they have incurred at Verdun. Just how important it is to the Germans that they should bring their offensive at Verdun to some sort of conclusion may *be judged from the fact that both the Russians and the Italians are show-, ing a disposition to assume the offensive. Both, indeed, have set in .motion powerful attacks whicE have achieved a measure of success and are, perhaps, still being developed. The Western Allies, meantime, arc restricting their energies in the main to the defence off Verdun, but it may be assumed with'confidence that they are fully prepared to_ act powerfully in concert with their Allies when circumstances make such action advisable. The outlook is one that the Germans must regard with anything but easy minds. They must persevere at Verdun and continue to pour out the strength for which there is an increasing demand upon their extended battle-fronts or relinquish a struggle in 'which, to all appearance, their losses nave far outweighed their gains. .

Tentative as it is, _ this estimate of the position in which the enemy is placcd is not upset by tho German newspaper comments which are cabled to-day in company with hints that tho Verdun offensive is to be abandoned. Possibly these newspaper statements are intended only to deceive, but as they stand they amount to an elaborate attempt to explain away a failure and give it the appearance of a success, To this end thoy take tho obvious, but unconvincing, line of belittling tlx* sacrifices incurred at Verdun, and asserting that the German stroke has forestalled a tremendous French offensive, against Metz, which was planned for a day or two ago. This is so obviously a laboriously manufactured case that it is hardly necessary to examine its details. To suggest that 57 davs largely devoted to infantry assaults upon some of the strongest field fortifications in the world have cost the attackers anything less than _ fearfully heavy losses is to put an impossible strain upon belief. As to the second point, it is extremely doubtful whether .the Germans have thus far done much at Verdun to stop or delay a French offensive, or rather an offensive by the Western Allies, when the appointed hour has arrived. It is practically certain that the Germans are no longer in a position to profitably spend shell for shell with the Allies, and indications are that the French have allowed them to spend shells in a much greater. proportion at Verdun. Broadly speaking, the story of the battle, as far as it has i gone, seems to be that the French 'have allowed themselves to be gradually bombarded out of a series of positions and have used their own guns 'largely as man-killing engines.

In addition to this, it is-doubtful whether the Germans have■ greatly reduced the value, of the Verdun position to the Frenches the possible starting point of an offensive movement; ' A Tbelt of ground along the northern front of the fortress area has, it is true, passed into the hands of the enemy, Dut the French remain established on' a strong line facing the captured territory. East of Verdun they have evacuated only positions on the Woeuvre Plain. They retain possession of the. heights which dominate the plain and look across it towards Metz. In addition, the railway from the west, which .is an important factor in making' Verdun a great concentration point, remains intact. From a broader standpoint the theory that the Vordun offensive was'undertaken with a defensive end in view, fails to convince, because 'Verdun is only one,of a number of vantage points from which the Allies may open an attack. That the Germans would squander men and material as they have done at Verdun merely in the hope of closing one road of attack liaMe to be used by the Allies is simply incredible. It is' much more reasonable to suppose _ that they hoped-to make- any Allied offensive impossible by themselves driving an offensive home to a point of decisive success.

German who dealt with tho Verclun offensive in its early days were not wholly in agreement as to its scope and intended purpose. The military. critic of the Vossische Zeitung, for instance, took the view that the German aim was to dislodge the French from a place of concentration, and a point from which an offensive against the German front could issue. On the other hand Major Moraht, writing in tho Berliner Tagcblatt, reminded his readers that many months ago he had emphasised the importance of Verdun as a pivot, "and," he significantly added, "I pointed to' the old historic road to Paris." This, with a suggestion that what tho Allies had just experienced in the West was but a foretaste of what was to follow, showed plainly enough that Major Moraht regarded the attack on Verdun as the opening movement in an offensive intended to achieve decisiye results. On the facts and judging by the.efforts they have put forth, it is much I 'more likely that the Germans hoped to break through the French line at a vital point and -effect a great turning movement, than that, they were merely intent upon gaining a. stronger defensive line. As the event has turned they have not even attained as yet the more'limited of these objects. Their lines aro closely wrapped about Verdun, but the vital features of tho position, upon whicli its value depends, are substantially unimpaired. The idea that the Germans are dismayed at- their want of success and that their newspaper comments represent an attempt to gloss over the facts gains colour . from the suggestions they arc making in - official reports that French counter-attacks, violent but unsuccessful, account for the slow development of tho operations. This is categorically denied in a French semi-official message which states that in reality General Petain is still acting oh the defensive ancl will continue to do so as long afl hu thinks fit. Wo may take it therefore, that the- attack in Ver-

dun halts because the Germans—for the time at least, and they are fight-1 ing against time —are unable to press it in its former vigour. *** * / The genera] attack on the British front which has been predicted as a sequel to tho Verdun offensive has not yet taken shape, but -an enemy report speaks of violent mine and artillery fighting on both banks of the La Bassfce Canal. La Basseo, it will be remembered, gives its name to a powerful fortified salient which projects from the positions covering the head of the enemy's.main line of communications along the Meuse. i » * » «

Within tho last day or two tho Russians have reported important successes in Armenia on their tra! front, west of Erzerum, and on their southern flank, whci'o they rare striking towards tho Upper Tigris. They now report a victory over tho Turks in the Black Sea coastal zone. Though supported by artillery and strongly entrenched the Turks wero dislodged from positions 16 miles east ol Trebizond and are now being pursued. The British in Mesopotamia also report a further forward movement in the Hooded area along the south bank of tho Tigris. _ A notable eVent, with matters taking this turn in the campaigns', is the enterprising raid by British naval airmen ' upon Constantinople and Adrianople. The airmen, though they encountered unfavourable weather, flew a distance 'of over three Mndred miles. Whit damage they did is not stated in reports so far received, but their v/sits are probably only an earnest of more to follow.

On the whole the outlook in the campaigns against Turkey,is bright and the reported reconnaissance by an Australian force into i the area east of■ the Suez Canal is an additional indication of the fact. Prospects of a Turkish attack on the O'anal have faded away and tbaugh elaborate measures are being taken to safeguard the waterway it has no doubt Been found possible by this time to release for service elsewhere Homo part of the forco formerly assembled in its vicinity. It is re~ ported that in this' southern campaign the Turks are _ now only intent upon maintaining unrest amongst the tribesmen of the Syrian desert This is the more likely to bo true since it is highly probable 4 that it has been found necessary to transfer to Armenia- some of the regular troops whom it was intended should be employed in an attack on tho Canal.

Rough and ready methods have apparently been adopted by the Allies in their dealings with Greece, The Greek Government is protesting against a proposal to transport tho Serbian troops across country, so as to avoid submarine dangers, but the Allies are sweeping tne protests aside on the ground that. Greece, neglecting to keep' her coastal waters clear of submarines, has made it necessary that the Serbians should use her railways. This may or may not be sound law, but it is undoubtedly sound justice.' As the position is described by Mr. Martin Donohoe, the Greek Government made its protest under AusT;ro-German pressure, and having been firmly met by tho Allies Is now seeking a peaceable escape from its dilemma. While this mood prevails Greece is, of course, in no danger from the Allies, and if she is being treated with scant courtesy the treatment is certainly not worse than she deserves.