PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2745, 14 April 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dueing the present month, as far as it has gone, British and neutral ships have been sunk by German submarines at a rate hardly ever approached before since the underwater craft took to the dirty work of warring on peaceful shipping. Taking reports published on Monday, April 3, and up to April 13, it would appear that 32 shipa have been. punk b.y the submarines,' moat of them in

Home waters. This total no doubt represents approximately the destruction effected by tho submarines during the first twelve days of April, and it is obvious that if they are able to go on at anything like tho same rate the submarine problem must be regarded as very far from being solved. Of the 32 ships sunk in the twelve days mentioned, 22 were British, nine were neutral, and one was Italian. What the total and its details mean is best realised by a comparison with the destruction effected by the submarines in the three months of last year when the campaign was at its height. Tho following figures of ships sunk in the months-of 1015 indicated, are' taken from graphs published by Mr. A. H. Pollen in Land and Water:

British. Allied. Neutral. Total, July 22 6 21 49 August 41 5 20 \W September 22 5 13 dO A. few of the ships included in the table were sunk by mines and not by submarines. This still further emphasises the upward tendency in tho rate of destruction which is now in evidence. During the first twelve days of. April ships appear to have been destroyed at the rate of s6mcthing like 18 per week. If this rate is maintained the total for the month will considerably exceed the highest monthly total reached last year. Being maintained it would work out at some eighty ships for the month, as against 66—the highest monthly total hitherto recorded—in August last year. ' '

Allowance must, of course, bo made for tho fact that any limited period may show. an_ abnormal rate of destruction and give an exaggerated impression of tho results of tho underwater campaign. For instance, in one period of 14 consecutive days in August last year (August. 10-23), • no fewer than 47 British, Allied, and neutral ships were sent to tile bottom. This was an abnormal period. Taking a space of four weeks.,-in-stead of two, high-water mark .was reached in last year's campaign during the last three weeks of August and the first week-of September, when ships were sunk at an .average rate of 16 per week By lengthening the period for which it is struck the-average rate of destruction in fast year's campaign is still further reduced.. Possibly the same _ may prove to be true,of the campaign in its latest-phase; but we are faced meantime by , the fact that ships are being sunk by the submarines at a faster rate than has ever before been attained except during a very brief period of the campaign last .year.

Though it. would'be foolish to attempt to minimise the shipping losses now being suffered by Britain and by neutral countries, it- would be quite premature to assume that the Germans are in a fair way to carry their submarine campaign to a point of decisive success. As to the prospects of the campaign, very little can be known, meantime, but it is, of course, possible that tho Germans may bave' profited by experience to the extent of evolving an improved type 'of submarine better able to make head against the counter-offen-sive than the boats which so definitely failed last year to strike a decisive blow at British sea-borno trade.' As to what the Germans have accomplished in this direction, infor-' mation that can be regarded' as really reliable is still lacking. An .'enemy submarine captured the other day was said to be of "the new type," but it was not described. There has been some talk also of a submarine able to dispense with a periscope, which would imply that it operates awash, relying upon an armoured protection of its upper structure. *

Reports of this kind are not particularly informative, but the need of being prepared for new developments in the enemy submarine campaign ;has long been rocognised by English naval Though definite evidence is lacking that such a craft has appeared, there is nothing new in the idea of a submarine, or submersible, armoured on its upper structure, and large and powerful enough to defy any armed merchantman and possibly even the lighter'types of naval surface craft. According to Mr. Archibald Hurd, a well-known authority, Germany already has submarines of this type in commission. Writing on the 'subject on February 15, he said that German vessels of 'a type ' which might best bo described as submarine monitors had been seen at sea, and were the talk of neutrals who moved about the Baltic on business. They are, he adds, fairly big vessels. Above the more or less circular hull is built a long battery, well protected by armour, which can ba made completely -watertight. It ex ; tends for a considerable .dista-nco 'along the hull, and in the cente is the commander's tower, from which orders are issued. The guns mounted, Mr. Htjrd believes, are certainly more weapons- than German submarines have hitherto car: ried, 'and such vessels as these, which' are no doubt of high speed—muchswifter than the boats hitherto employed—will prove formidable. He suggests that a submarine monitor of this type, operating awash and with only her armoured battery exposed, would be. immune from the light artillery of a merchant ship and could escape the attack of a man-of-war by submerging.

Mk./Huhd's belief in the existence of submarine monitors is not by any means universally accepted, and it is as yet an open question whether such craft actually exist. But the opinion appears to be general with those who have addressed themselves to the subject that the Germans will rely henceforth upon • larger and more powerful submarines than they have nitherto employed, boats of greater gun-power and with a more extended cruising range than their predecessors. The natural procedure of such submarines would bo to | cruise well out to sea, avoiding areas like the Straits of Dover, where the counter-offensive is ■naturally at its highest pitch of efficiency, and remaining as long as possible away from their base. Under these conditions tho raiders might be expected \to depend more upon_ their guns than upon, torpedoes pursuing their. mission of destruction, and it is a peculiar fact that recent reports afford no indication that tho submarines are preferring the gun to the torpedo as an instrument of destruction. There is no recent report of a submarine sinking a ship by gunfire In a number of cases it has been specifically mentioned thaj; the ships were torpedoed, and in others it has simply been said that they wore'sunk, which is at least as.like r ly as not to mean-that they 'were torpedoed. This really casts some doubt upon the theory that the Germans are sending out larger submarines armed with powerful guns. . Such craft would almost necessarily be designed to act apainst mcrch«.nt- ■ own—the da.v of,, the submersible

battleship may bo coming, but, like that of the submersible cargo-carrier, it is hardly likely to come until alter this war—and their powerful armament would presumably bo regarded as affording a more economical'means of destroying ships than the costly and bulky torpedo. Unless it is shown, presently that ships are being destroyed by giinfire there will bo some reason to' doubt whether tho Germans are developing their submarines on the lines ' suggested.

While the improvements that may have been effected in enemy submarines are largely a matter of speculation, it is a fact of definite importance that the. campaign against merchant shipping has been resumed after a period of comparative inacThe Germans have had time to train submarine officers and men Probably they have not been able to make them by any means as efficient as those who met their fate in the earlier_ submarines,'but there has been time to train a considerable number of officers and men. This in itself would go far to account for. the results which are at present being attained in the campaign, irrespective of any improvements that may_ have been effected in the subinarines. It_ is to bo remembered also that while the achievements of the submarines arc'.in plain sight we hear.almost nothing of what is being accomplished in., the counter-cam-paign. The recent sinking of one ul the newer German submarines was very possibly not a lonely instance of its kind, since it is the policy of the Admiralty only to announce such incidents when the facts, are known, or bound.to become- known to the. enemy. We know,' at all events, that the Navy has hitherto ,done wonderfully well in coping with the undeMvater pirates, ,and may feeljoleraply sure that it is not at an end of its resources where tho later developments of the piratical campaign are concerned.

Thouoh it is upon the countermeasures of the Navy that chief : reliance must be placed, the attitude of neutrals towards' the later developments of German submarine policy is of very great importance. Useful possibilities reside in the proposal which the British Government' has laid before neutrals that German ships interned in neutral ports should be ..drawn upon to fill gaps in thp mercantile marine made by the enemy submarines. Holland and other countries whose ships have b&m sunk by the pirates are thus offered an opportunity of obtaining a measure of redress without resorting to the extreme step of making war on Germany, _ and unless they, are strangely spiritless they should gladly seize the, opportunity.

Events ai;c conspiring also to force the United' States to something in the nature of a. definite stand. It was reported', yesterday, that CotJnt Bebnstoeff had intimated to the American Government that /the submurine attacks would continue until the end of the war unless Britain was induced to" abandon the blockade. If such an ultimatum has been delivered, the days of temporising by the United States Government, unless in utter dishonour, are at an' end.' T«he British blockade only_ to a limited extent concerns America, and in this extent, as the New York Outlook has pointed out, corresponds to such a question a_s in domestic .affairs would b'e settled by the ciyi] courts on the basis of compromise and the payments of money; while the questions that have been raised between, t.he United States and Germany are matters which in domestio affairs would be submitted to a criminal court, and could have no satisfactory settlement . except through the punishment arid the reform- of the guilty party. America, according to the report mentioned, is in the position 01 being dictated to and defied the criminal from whom she is seeking redress. It is a position in which she cannot'remain, im any pretext whatsoever, without sacrificing the last shreds of her selfrespect.

No very notable development is reported at time of writing in the main theatres. An intense struggle continues at Verdun, but there seems to have -been no recent changes of ground of any importance. The Italians -report that- they have, extended their foothold in enemy territory by an offensive in the southwostern Trentino. Predictions of battle in Northern Greece have not yet materialised, but ■ the Russians report progress in Armenia, west of Erzerum, and to the'south have repulsed attacks. Nothing. is_ said about the northern flank, resting on the Black Sea coast, where the Turks were lately reported to be attacking, but it is -a sign of hopeful ( import Shat the Russians are advancing further south.

A Turkish message avers that the British have suffered-a terrible defeat at Felahie, in Mesopotamia, but according to British _ reports entrenchments at Felahie were mastered days ago, and the Tigris columns have advanced some miles to Sannaiyat, where the enemy as yet 'is holding out. There is no late official'report by which to check the Turkish communique; but an unofficial message from London indicates that the outlook in Mesopotamia is regarded as hopeful. ■ .

The speech delivered in the Reich? stag by General von Falkenhayn is no doubt intended as ,a, counterblast to Mr. Asquitits recent references to the determination of the Allies to bring about the destruction of Prussian militarism. But excopt for a certain' energy of bombast, the German Minister's speech was so poor an effort of its kind as to ■suggest that the War Lords are desperately hard put to it to make out a plausible- or convincing, case. Apart from certain fables about England, thpr speech was chiefly an attempt to emphasise what Germany has clone. There is.no trace of such an appeal to courage and resolution as the War Minister of a free people would make. Bidding his hearers look at the map, von Falkenhayn rather resembled a bandit chief quietening his following with booty. He may find it no easy matter to adjust his appeal to circumstances when Germany presently finds herself, as she is like to do, with less booty to gloat over, and more need of courage and resolution for their own sake.