PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2743, 11 April 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Presumably most of the war news has a foundation of some sort, but this does not seem to apply to tho message of a Paris correspondent who suggests that the enemy offensive at Verdun, is now, after fifty days, "finished." More reliable news shows" that the offensive is'as far as possible from being finished. The actual state of affairs on . the Verdun front is that the battle has lately been raging, perhaps is raging still, in redoubled vigour, and that the Germans have added importantly to their recent gain of ground west of tho Mouse, on the western flank of the Verdun defences. When the posit.ion was touched upon yesterday it was pointed out that the Germans were practising their now familiar procedure of attacking and penetrating the flanks of a salient in the hope of making the whole of its area untenable. In the case of the Bethincourt salient, an important feature in the defences of the western Verdun flank, these methods have achieved a considerable measure of success. The French, now report that a premeditated evacuation of the Bethincourt salient was effected on Saturday night. There is no reason to doubt that the evacuation was effected in good time and methodically, but it was, of course, enforced by the enemy's ' forward progress on tiic flanks of tho salient, particularly upon the western flank, where the Germans carried successively the villages of Malancourt arid Haucourt and small works south of the latter place.

**' V * The wedge .of ground evacuated was something over , a. • mile deep, from apex to base, and two mile's wide, or a little more, at its base. The French line now runs north-cast from Avocourt to the Meuse, a little over five miles away. It is approximately straight, and of its defensive possibilities is supplied in the fact that the French, since evacuating the Bethincourt salient, have received and broken immensely powerful enemy assaults. The general terms of the communique in which the events touched upon are reported encourage a- belief that the 1 rench are continuing the battle in good heart on.a strong line. At the same time it is not to be ignored that the Verdun defences are wearing thin under repeated assaults. On the other side of the account it is to be noted that the straightening of the French line unquestionably makes for strength.. The northern Verdun front now runs almost clue east and west on both sides of the Meuse, trending only gently south in the area west of the river. Local topography apart, this is a much better defensive line than the one from which the French have retreated. Before the Germans settled clown to batter their way into the western flank the front west of the river contained a bulge projecting north from the general line. -This' bulge, as has been said, was narrowed and intensified by the enemy attacks. It has now been' flattened out. Amongst other things, their latest advance" means that the Germans have moved a section of their front nearer to., the main railway' which approaches Verdun from the west and crosses' the Meuse. Opposite Avocourt, however, the Germans were already within about /three miles of this railway," and they are not as close to it on any section of the front they have,reached as a result of the evacuation of the Bethincourt salient. *** * - As reports stand, the Gorman success seems to have been definitely confined to the elimination of the projecting feature 'of the French front. Attacks, all along the'line on tho straightened front were bloodily Repulsed, though it is stated that they | were pressed with fury and determination. For a moment the enemy gained a footing in the French position at Avocourt, but he was immediately ejected.; An opinion, therefore, a'pT pears to be justified that the French are by no means at an end of their resources as'regards fighting a defensive battle on advantageous terms. They have yielded ground, but have leVied a toll of enemy lives in the process, and they remain for the time at least firmly established on a strong defensive line. 'Making every allowance for the advantages- that' will accrue to the. defence from - tho straightening of line that has taken place, there is no reason to suppose that it will enable the French to indefinitely hold up the German advance if this is pressed regardless of sacrifices. The new conditions created may possibly enable the French to continue their defensive • battle for some' time without material change of ground. Further than this it is hardly possible to look at present. De : velopments at Verdun in the' near, future must be governed largely by what the Allies do or leave undone

- elsewhere in the Western theatre. TJn- '■ less they are engaged on some . other. _ section of the' battle-front, and com- " pellcd as a result to limit their efi forts at Verdun, the natural policy j of the Germans will be to continue » in full vigour their assault upon the a ■ fortress area. There is r.o possible , reason for believing that they will i a adopt any other policy if freedom of 3 choice is left them. Certainly no such f reason appears in the present situa--3 tion on the Verdun'front. j * * . v, , Much as events and prospects in . the main theatres tend at present to ( monopolise attention, they should not be allowed to divert it wholly from ) developments in the Near and Middle ■ East. Allied operations aiming at , the subjugation of Turkey and Buli garia are in any case of great im- : portance, and it is conceivable that i they may be invested with additional , importance by the turn of events in the main theatres. Rival theories are i afloat as to the possibilities attending i offensive action by the Allies in the ■ Western theatre and. in Russia, i Events may demonstrate that the ' complete defeat of the enemy in these areas is to be achieved only in a proi longed struggle. In that event it i will become even more, necessary than • it visibly is now to as rapidly as posl siblo make an end of Turkish and/ ■ Bulgarian resistance. Such a policy i would produce immediate results an'cl would make also for the maximum ■ concentration of Allied strength in i the main theatres.' The only satisfactory way to release any portion of the forces now arrayed agains't Turkey and posted in readiness for a forward move from Greece is to conquer Turkey and establish Entente . supremacy in the Balkans. If these things can be accomplished while the ivar in the main theatres is still definitely short of a decision, moral as | well as material advantages will ac- ! cnic to the Entente group. The spec- ! taclo of Turkey defeated and the ■ Entente supreme in the . Balkans I would certainly riot tend to hearten the German nation for a long war. It has been taught to regard the Balkans and Turkey as stepping-stonas to German world domination. To sea

this illusion dissipated and to know that victory in the main theatres is no longer possible, even if defeat may he postponed for a time, should do something at least to bring the German nation to its senses or to a realisation that it is merely striving against an inexorable fate.

Taken at its face value, news from the Balkans to-day is mostly -good. The Hungarian Prime Minister is said to bo encouraging Bulgaria to try to recover a portion of the Dobrudja, the south-eastern section of Rumania as its frontiers arc now constituted. Presumably the portion in question is that which Bulgaria was compelled to cede to Rumania in the settlement which .followed the second Balkan war. If this report is true, Count Tisza is obviously playing into the.hands of the Allies./' The motive assigned for his action is a desire to avert the clanger of a Rumanian invasion of Transylvania by stirring up a conflict between Rumania and Bulgaria, but anything that tends to bring Rumania into tho war must be regarded as helpful to the Allies. There are, of course, no means of definitely testing the report, but it is by no means impossible that, Count Tisza is braving the opposition of the German Emperor and moving in the direction indica-tcd with an eye to Hungarian, as distinct from Germanic, interests.

Reports from Greece speak _ for themselves. Pro-German intrigues in that country- are not at an end, but there'are evidences .also that a section of the public is alive to tb.3 danger by which Greece is faced of falling between two stools. The threat of a German-Bulgarian ' of-fensive-in Greek is possibly bluff, particularly in view of the : reported complications in Bul-gar-Rumanian relations, but in any case Greece is in an awkward fix, and a forward movement by the enemy woiild not relievo her difficulties. It remains likely that she will go with the tide, and her financial problems, emphasised by the resignation of the Finance Minister, may possibly hasten her decision.

The Turks are evidently making desperate efforts to stem the Russian advance in Armenia, particularly on the approaches to Trebizond, but the situation seems to afford no cause for uneasiness. Attacking the ;Russian northern flank, N near the coast of the Black Sea, they have been heavily re-" pulsed, and in the mountain areas further south the Russians are' advancing. Even .if their advance should be slow for a time, the' Russians are rendering yeoman service to their Allies in the Balkans. As the Armenian campaign is developing, if. bids fair to absorb a great part of the Turkislrstrcngth, and it becomes .increasingly unlikely that the Turks will play any important or powerful part in the impending conflict in the Balkans.